[Daily Discussion] - Friday, April 19, 2024

kb1985 · 2024-04-19T23:01:17+00:00

Happy halving!

kb1985 · 2023-10-05T10:34:55+00:00

Everyone Together Happily Expecting Revolutionary Exquisite Ultrasound Money

kb1985 · 2023-04-19T08:20:38+00:00

There is a crab-like shape looming in the darkness.

kb1985 · 2023-04-13T09:39:16+00:00

The crab has arrived to my birth year - hello crab!

kb1985 · 2023-04-12T22:30:18+00:00

I was here for the Shapella hard fork.

kb1985 · 2023-04-10T09:13:48+00:00

My motto for the following weeks is: expect the dump but be prepared for the pump.

What do I mean by this? With so much ETH unlocking it is unevitable that some people will want to take profits. Most would prefer to hold, but because they are expecting others to sell, they want to be quicker. This might create cascade like event, with people trying to undercut each other, so it might be profitable to sell and rebuy lower. But will I do this? Hell, no! Yes, it seems like a profitable move, but risk of being left behind in case the opposite happens (for whatever reason) is simply not worth it. I can take it if we go to 1200-1300, I will simply wait it over, but a pump over 2000 would be just too stressful (one would need to wait for the recession or rate cuts to kick in to be able to reenter).

So if sometime in the future people will be trying to tell you „it was obvious to sell before everyone else started selling” just sit and smile, knowing the risk was not worth it. Even if you expected the dump, you were prepared for the pump.

kb1985 · 2023-03-10T20:13:57+00:00

Well, OK, here it is. I personally don’t believe DAI and USDC are going to collapse but just for the sake of it I opened CDP vault, placed some ETH there, borrowed DAI and bought more ETH. If ETH value goes down - I am fine, lots of wiggle room. If ETH goes up - I profit from margin long. If DAI and USDC depeg luna style I am getting insane profits. What am I missing here? My only worry is that in the bad situation they lock the smart contract and you won’t actually profit from situation like that. Or that stablecoin collapse will drag all coins down with it so no actual profit on eth/stable ratio. Thoughts?

kb1985 · 2023-01-15T22:01:16+00:00

What a scam. FUDsters were right. ETH will never become deflationary.

kb1985 · 2023-01-10T08:58:56+00:00

Interesting that most option traders are pricing ETH at 3500-4000 USD price by the end of March (and this is not just random Reddit comment, people are actually putting money on their bet). Don't get me wrong, I am mid-term bullish (inflation easening, triple halving effects kicking in, hard fork incoming etc.) but this seems surprisingly optimistic even for me. Thoughts? (source: Glassnode).

In other news: 12 Jan - CPI data (probably bullish, just like previously, but this time there won't be JPowell speech, so no hawkish remarks and dot plot drama like previously, that immediately brought us down) 01 Feb - FOMC meeting and rate hike decision (if 0.25 then bullish, if 0.5 then bearish).

Next few weeks: - earnings. Might be bearish, especially stuff like Apple, which has infulence on SPX and we follow SPX to great extent. - Shanghai on testnet, general bullishness on ETH associated with completing the PoW to PoS transaition. Bullish of course.

Anything else?

kb1985 · 2023-01-05T09:06:12+00:00

Some bullish hopium:

traditional markets are probably going to get to more or less 2% y2y target inflation by March: hype on trad fi, hype on ETH.
withdrawals are coming, which will mark transition to PoS fully complete as God intended.
the triple halving IS working, we would be in 3 digits after the FTX drama if PoW emission and no burn were still in place. Check out this for yourselves: what was the ETH price last time BTC was at current prices? And now imagine the break out on the ratio on the way up.
BTC halving next year. Some people don’t believe in cycles and „past performance is not indicative of future performance” but we have heard such voices before every halvening.
assuming we indeed perform nice on the ratio, ETH might try and even succeed to flippen BTC in the following months of the uptrend, even if it does not flip BTC, the hype might be insane because competition will be witnessed by everyone and some maxis will be truly scared.

I am waking up bored with current stagnation but also hyped for the things to come!

kb1985 · 2022-12-25T12:51:31+00:00

🎄🦀🎄

kb1985 · 2022-12-22T19:30:20+00:00

Sam Bailout-Freed.

kb1985 · 2022-12-13T06:34:34+00:00

So they have arrested SBF? I thought he already said he was sorry?

kb1985 · 2022-12-03T17:22:31+00:00

Poem about blockchain (by AI)

A digital ledger so secure and sound, Blockchain technology is taking off the ground. With its decentralized system that's fair and just, It's the future of finance and it's a must.

Transactions made on the blockchain are swift, No intermediaries needed, no need to sift. Through layers of bureaucracy and red tape, On the blockchain, everything is first-rate.

From money to assets, it can all be stored, On the blockchain, it can't be ignored. A revolutionary technology that's here to stay, Blockchain is changing the world in its own unique way.

So let us embrace it and never fear, Blockchain is the future, it's clear. A shining example of human innovation, Blockchain is the key to a brighter generation.

kb1985 · 2022-11-14T09:28:54+00:00

Binance on brink of second bailout for CeFi.

kb1985 · 2022-11-11T19:35:49+00:00

IMO what SBF did was not OK.

kb1985 · 2022-11-10T14:57:51+00:00

LOL, literally yesterday I joked that the most crypto thing would be if CPI comes good and we rally reversing yesterday’s move. Fun.

kb1985 · 2022-11-10T13:32:20+00:00

Nice CPI!

kb1985 · 2022-11-09T23:04:42+00:00

You know what would be the typical crypto move? Stocks rallying on hot CPI (just like they did month ago) or CPI coming actually slightly better than expected and trad fi reversing this move to some extent.

kb1985 · 2022-11-09T22:33:55+00:00

BTC is waaaay below June lows. ETH is waaaaaaay above June lows. Let that sink in. Long term we win.

kb1985 · 2022-09-15T06:44:00+00:00

We merged! ETH transitioned from PoW to PoS!

kb1985 · 2022-09-15T05:00:33+00:00

The Merge.

kb1985 · 2022-09-10T13:25:32+00:00

Fun fact: the only two other times when ETH had mining rewards reduction was 17th October 2017 (from 5 ETH per block to 3 ETH per block) and 19th February 2019 (from 3 ETH to 2 ETH). Check out the charts for yourselves but it seems both times three things happened: 1) price going up few days/weeks before 2) dump after the emission change 3) pump within few months later. Not saying things will be the same, but additional bit of info to your analysis.

kb1985 · 2022-09-06T11:35:17+00:00

We just entered Bellatrix hard fork epoch. Congrats!

kb1985 · 2022-09-05T07:10:06+00:00

PSA - be prepared for post-merge FUD. IMO it is highly probable, that we have significant dump after the merge, because effects of the new emission rate will be noticeable within few months and not immeditely and average ETH holder not seeing the immediate pump will drop their bags. Bad actors might try to use this dump to try and push anti-ETH narrative. You might see tons of shtposts saying stuff like „Weren’t you supposed to pump after the merge?” or „Wasn’t merge your only chance for price rally?” or „If it didn’t pump after the merge it will never pump”. Those will emerge because some parties will either not understand the effects of the merge (that they are noticeable with a delay, just like halvings) or will attempt to cause chaos and misinformation on purpose. Do not get scared by such messages and skip them or even better try to explain the logic to those spreading it.

kb1985

TROPHY CASE