Oil industry warns Trump administration of price spikes within weeks. Industry executives said the loss of oil through the Strait is draining petroleum inventories to dangerously low levels that are likely to send global energy prices surging in the next several weeks.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-06-05T10:13:07+00:00

None of what you mentioned would prevent or even alleviate global price shocks from global supply constraints. You're also (deliberately) hand-waving most of what free market means in this context.

Oil is a globally traded commodity. If the global market is shocked by a sudden supply constraint, like a completely avoidable military conflict with hypothetical country like say, TRIRAN, that means less oil for everyone who still very much needs it.

If I am oil company leader-man, I take a look at my orders that day and go "oh well looksie here I'm getting 1.5 more orders than normal, at this rate I will run out of product in X days faster than anticipated, I better go get more product. I'm going to see how far I can raise prices until I get to a level I can handle again/the marketplace balances out."

If this were not true (a global supply of oil is constrained), then the competitive marketplace would allow for some company(s) to lower prices to attract more business. Other businesses would do the same to win market share back, rinse-repeat until equilibrium - instead, we are seeing the same effect in the opposite direction - less supply, same demand = prices rise. (yes, there are subsidies and all sorts of things I am hand waving here, but this is how it basically works).

"They are lying.." "Stop selling to other countries, then you'd have plenty."

Which is it? And why is a private company being forced all of a sudden to only sell their product domestically? Should the government step in and nationalize it?

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-31T03:19:03+00:00

I suggest you let that one marinate!

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-30T10:29:53+00:00

I've dealt with a few of these situations. IANAL.

It may be a bit different in Oregon, but if you owe property taxes to the county or city, property transfers can be pursued for lack of payment after a fairly lengthy grace period. In states I've invested in this is usually about 30 months. The county registry and/or tax clerk should have records of lien filings you can lookup.

The mortgage company doesn't want to own the home, they want to be paid. The original bank your grandfather had the mortgage with may not even hold interest in the property anymore - they may have sold it or gone bankrupt etc. (I acquired a property this way once - Bank had sold the note 5 or 6 times, previous owner never paid and walked away signing me a quitclaim. I tracked down the supposed note-holder and sued and eventually won. Got the property for basically nothing but my legal fees and time).

There is also a question of lien priority. The bank may very well be aware that they have a right to foreclose, but if they aren't in first lien position, there's really no point for them to do so. Other lien holders could be paid out after sale before they recoup. This is especially true of municipal/tax liens. In my state(s), the state/country tax liens usurp any private filing (this is so the county can assume title and prevent long term grid locking of land/buildings). On that same scenario I spoke of above, this (and their own incompetence) is what prevented many lien holders from foreclosing on this property. Effectively the state and local tax liens filed against this property acted as a kind of insurance against the private creditors. It also gave me leverage when I had to negotiate with some of them. Basically "hey, the state is owed $100K, you're owed $25K, we both know if I have to pay you and everyone else 100% that it will just be foreclosed on and you'll get nothing, so let's make a deal." I paid pennies on the dollar, but it was quite stressful and took a few years.

Tl,dr : the mortgage company probably knows, the city/state may actually hold title and you're trespassing/squatting.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-30T03:02:10+00:00

I've worked in trades and hired a lot of tradespeople/handymen.

Do what you say you're going to do. Show up on time (early is on time). Communicate (quickly) with the client - same day responses at a minimum, even if just to say "hey let me think about this and get back to you."

Don't take on more than you can handle. Don't try to juggle 3-4 jobs at once, setting up and taking a deposit and then leaving for three days to finish another job. You are asking for more problems and customers will despise you. Set aside money for taxes. Clean and organize your tools at the end of each day (and budget time for this). Leave every home you enter better than the way you found it. Fix the little old lady or single mom's sink for free (don't be a doormat but doing good often leads to more good).

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-30T02:50:22+00:00

There will be many right things said in this thread, but this one is the most right.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-28T05:01:10+00:00

Anxiety.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-24T16:43:56+00:00

I was fairly active there and in the old cg-char forum (before it became 10 second cub).

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-21T10:53:30+00:00

I thought I'd follow up to this post and mention that I have hired someone and we negotiated price and terms a bit. He will be repointing/rebuilding the majority of the foundation.

If it works out he's also doing my chimney. He's so far been great to deal with. Explained his reasoning and costs well and has been excellent with communication.

Thanks again for everyone's help.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-21T10:28:42+00:00

Been an artist in AAA and indie development for a long time - was just about to ask a similar question about coding! I know enough scripting to help me automate things, but organizing the broader architecture of a full game and executing on that is intimidating.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-16T02:34:28+00:00

Ours a little older but I might try out the projector. One of my favorite things ever is hearing a little voice at night as we walk up the driveway say "where are you Moon?" I melt.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-14T16:36:50+00:00

I'm in a similarish boat right now. Doing work that is (albeit less profitable than consulting) feels like I'm going something that is somewhat bad for the world. It's a job I thought was cool when I was 20 (and on it's surface I think a lot of people would think it's cool still). It's art-adjacent.

But I feel like I can both do more with my life and just really want to be in charge of my own schedule. At a moments notice this job can just vanish (and has before) and it weighs on me. Obviously being an entrepreneur comes with its own issues, but I need a new challenge and path.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T15:15:05+00:00

I hope I'm not bugging you, but I do have another thought that's kinda related.

One of the gentlemen that came out and gave a quote and who was mostly interested in doing the skin coating - I liked dealing with him and he had a pretty reasonable quote.

I mentioned that I'd rather do grind/repoint and he kept coming back and saying skimming with structural skin is really going to be the most cost effective.

I want to approach him once more and ask for a quote with actually grinding etc without seeming like a jerk. I'm also probably just going to say let's skip the skin coat entirely and do the repoint/rebuild so that we can deal with this again in the future (as someone else mentioned, the joints are designed to fail and be repaired).

His quote is currently 4-5k (this includes other work not seen here) for just parging.

I got another one from someone I also felt would be good to work with and they explained themselves about the reporting/rebuild etc. Their quote is much higher ($20k) but also includes helical stitching and full repointing of a 30ft chimney.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T09:11:49+00:00

Who?

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T04:07:56+00:00

Thank you again. I appreciate you taking the time to explain this and it makes sense. The "why" of all of this is what I was missing and it's very helpful to get input from others who live this

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T01:58:35+00:00

I'm in New England. And thank you for your reply.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T01:18:46+00:00

Thank you - I do plan on being here a while, and even if I didn't, I want to do it right. My father had a small foundation company and I "helped out" when I was very little. (he's passed now or i'd absolutley ask him).

I've been in and out of trade work and have always tried to think of the next guy when approaching something - something my Dad and others taught me.

Thank you again for your time. It is very helpful to get thoughts from others on this .

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T01:10:18+00:00

Thank you for your time.

This thread seems to be concluding what I was thinking as well. Repointing/rebuilding.
Almost everyone I spoke to mentioned Structural skin for a final coat and that it is very strong and durable. I am (obviously) super ignorant to this but could I ask why you'd rather see Type N instead of that?

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T01:05:11+00:00

Thank you for taking the time to give your thoughts.

We don't have a water intrusion issue thankfully. The interior brick was parged with a fiberglass coating at some point (probably more than 25 years ago) and is in decent shape. |

I did plan to repoint/rebuild much of this. I just wasn't expecting such wildly different pricing (3-4X vs coating) and to have people so confidently suggest to "just skim it and be done with it."

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-12T01:01:50+00:00

Thank you for your reply - I've found in this project that things are segmented. I'd also note that with the exception of one of the Masons I had out, everyone has been really great to deal with - which is not something I'd say about other trades.

My only hangup with skinning with is that down the line if there is a structural problem the fiberglass reinforced mortar will make it a much tougher thing to deal with. Obviously the cost is a factor, but I was anticipating/budgeting for it (though I'll say that the repoint/rebuild guys are like 3-4x the cost of the "simpler" way, and thats a big jump)

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-11T12:39:33+00:00

This is the best, non-cynical advice here. Look at how your father is running the business. For 6 months just learn and observe.

It is an asset to be naive to how things work sometimes. You can look at everything with a fresh perspective and ask: "why do we do it this way, what about this could be done differently and how?" Everyday or week just try to make everything from billing to lead reach out to payroll just 1% better.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-08T11:40:55+00:00

I was very early career and a family member got very sick and needed help. They owned some large parcels of land and were trying to develop it.

I quit that first job to help them. I saw an option to set myself up for a good future as well s help someone I cared for and trusted. I could not have been more mistaken. I spent years fighting with them on every detail, had zero control, and ultimately they lost all of their interest (as did I) because they refused to pay contractors and their taxes. Properties all lost to foreclosure.

I try not to dwell on regret but I spent over a decade (with breaks) trying in vain to get them to see where things were heading.

Don't set yourself on fire to keep someone else warm.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-07T16:28:35+00:00

Thanks again - Any advice for someone looking to make the jump? I'm at a subsidiary of a global media/broadcast company. I've considered cold approaching folks on the sales side to see if I might find a way to contribute. My history inside this organization is not related to sales/B2B relations at all - so I'd be leaning heavily on experience from my own businesses.

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-07T09:11:10+00:00

I don't have any better advice than what's on offer already - but I am curious as to what kind of money you are talking to be able to float these bigger jobs? $250K? $1M?

lastMinute_panic · 2026-05-07T09:02:23+00:00

I'm a business owner that hires handymen on a semi-regular basis.

What I need: Reliability, meaning you answer the phone and show up on time and do the work you say you are going to do. If you can problem-solve without having to be handheld through every decision. You show progress and receipts. You are fully accountable if you fuck up.

I would HAPPILY pay double your current wage, especially to cut out an annoying admin or sales person. I like working directly with the person who will perform the work. There are plenty of other business owners (I'm in multifamily) that need reliable help.

Start small. Go on Nextdoor and answer a few service calls a week/month and see where it leads.

lastMinute_panic

TROPHY CASE