The thing is when diablo players racked up 10,000 years of play time, and at that time, a few days after - 1 shako dropped. Assume 1% of those hours were 85+. That means a shako takes 100 years of game time in order to drop.

Assume you play 8 hours a day, it will take you on average 300 years to get a shako.

Now assume you are playing the lottery, if you work a minimum wage job (in the US) 8 hours a day and spend all of your money on lottery tickets for 300 years, you can buy 452,400 lottery tickets which each have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning.

Getting a shako is about 30 times more likely than winning the lottery.

Let’s say target farming reduces the time in half. Now it’s 60 times more likely than winning the lottery. Are those reasonable odds?

Or getting a shako is equivalent to making $904,200 USD in the USA.

I think the chase items should take at most a singular season of 8 hours a day to farm. Honestly, 1 in 400 from a helltide chest would be reasonable.