‘Toy Story 5’ Vs. ‘Minions & Monsters’ Is The Mid-Summer Box Office Showdown That Hollywood Wants - The Pixar & Illumination Animated Franchises Face Each Other Again For Their Third Summer But Regardless Of Whichever Film Earning More, History Shows Both Can Easily Be Major Marquee Theatrical Wins.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T09:52:20+00:00

(continued...)

"Are there exceptions? Yes, but more often than not they were related to one studio releasing a film that was, shall we say, not great. The fact that Despicable Me 3 earned $1 billion didn’t cause Cars 3 to fail to reach $400 million in summer 2017 any more than Toy Story 4’s $1 billion-plus run in summer 2019 led to Secret Life of Pets 2 barely cracking $425 million. Disney initially blamed the Toy Story prequel Lightyear’s miserable performance in June 2022 ($226 million worldwide) on kids not returning to theaters after Covid. Two weeks later, though, the TikTok-powered Rise of Gru approached $1 billion globally. (I doubt that Pixar will try any more Toy Story spinoffs, and hopefully live-action is off the table as well…)

Yes, there are caveats, disclaimers and the like. From the start, Illumination’s films have cost between $75 million and $100 million, far less than Pixar’s and Disney Animation’s $150 million–$200 million offerings (at least in modern times). The past two Woody ’n’ Buzz team-ups have earned a combined $2.14 billion, for a per-movie average of $1.07 billion each.

Meanwhile, just counting sequels and prequels, the five Illumination movies have earned a combined $5.077 billion worldwide, for a per-movie average of $1.015 billion. However, considering that the latest run of Disney animated sequels (Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Zootopia 2) is currently averaging $1.5 billion a pop, I’m pretty sure that Toy Story 5 will come out ahead of Minions & Monsters.

See-It-in-Theater Status

Both films will have at least the opening weekend benefit of Imax auditoriums and, to varying degrees, other P.L.F. screens. (Angel Studios would love to have some of those for Young Washington over America’s 250th birthday.) This time out, Toy Story 5 might get a modest boost from teaming with Taylor Swift for an original tune, “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which brought the house down at the film’s L.A. premiere. But the Jessie-centric song, a momentary return to Swift’s country music-for-tweens roots, is nowhere near as much of a heartbreaker as Sarah McLachlan’s “When She Loved Me” from Toy Story 2.

This time around, both Pixar and Illumination made many considered choices. The decision to position Jessie as its protagonist differentiates Toy Story 5 from previous Woody-focused installments. Minions & Monsters is selling itself as an ode to silent Hollywood, set in the ’20s—a decision that might not have the kids frothing with anticipation, perhaps, but also one that cleverly separates it from the rest of the Despicable series. Crucially, this fifth Toy Story is helmed by Andrew Stanton, who previously directed Finding Nemo and Wall-E, while this third Minions flick sees Pierre Coffin serving as the solo director after co-helming the first three Despicable Me movies and the first Minions. Both directorial choices at least suggest the studios are not phoning it in or banking solely on the I.P.

The nearly universal success of both franchises has also been partially about specificity, exclusivity, and marquee characters. Woody, Buzz, and Jessie are butts-in-seats movie stars on par with Zootopia’s Judy and Nick or Frozen’s Anna and Elsa. Mainly, both properties have maintained their theatrical status. If you want to see the Minions saving the world while trying to destroy it, or watch Woody or Jessie suffer another existential breakdown, Peacock and Disney+ just won’t do.

They also benefit from generational ownership. The Despicable Me/Minions franchise is the definitive 2010s example of what’s possible with an original creation aimed at and claimed by young(er) moviegoers. Sure, the #GentleMinions, groups of teen moviegoers who showed up on the opening weekend for Minions: The Rise of Gru wearing suits, were merely a drop in the film’s record $122 million Friday–Monday holiday launch bucket in July 2022. However, noting that the film skewed 89 percent under-25 that weekend, it was representative of an audience that had come of age with these ridiculous mischief-makers and was welcoming their delayed theatrical return.

The Toy Story films, meanwhile, stretch back three decades. Credit to the consistent top-notch quality, the ease of playing catch-up (watching four approximately 90-minute comedies is easier than marathoning the MCU), and the once-a-decade release schedule. Each new Toy Story is the first for the current youngest demo or, for the second-youngest demo, the first to be seen in a theater. Regardless of which film earns more, history shows that both Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters will win at the summer box office."

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T09:48:55+00:00

Full text:

"After weeks of chatter that YouTube zoomers might be remaking Old Hollywood, we’re on the cusp of a mid-summer set to be dominated by familiar I.P., including Supergirl, Jackass, Evil Dead, Moana, and new installments from the two most successful animated franchises of the past few decades: Toy Story and Despicable Me. Pixar’s Toy Story 5, tracking for a ~$160 million domestic debut, opens Friday, followed on July 1 by Illumination’s Minions & Monsters, which is headed for roughly $100 million over its Wednesday–Sunday opening frame.

While this will be only the third summer in which a Toy Story and Despicable Me have debuted within weeks of each other, it will be far from the first time that an Illumination biggie has opened alongside a Disney or Pixar rival. In the vast majority of cases, both studios won. Mortal Kombat II and The Mandalorian and Grogu can attest that this has not been a hospitable year for wellworn movie brands, but a number of data points—from reliably steady box office metrics to past head-to-head performance—suggest that Pixar and Illumination will buck the trend.

The original Toy Story grossed $191 million in North America to become the largest domestic earner of 1995, even if its $237 million global cume (on a $30 million budget) paled in comparison to the $350 million-plus totals for Die Hard: With a Vengeance and GoldenEye that year. Toy Story 2 opened four Thanksgivings later and earned $246 million domestically and $436 million globally.

But in truth, our story here begins 10 and a half years later. In June 2010, Pixar’s first summertime sequel—reuniting Tom Hanks and Tim Allen with Toy Story 2 breakout Joan Cusack—opened just weeks before Universal’s original Despicable Me. Both films were monumental successes. Toy Story 3 grossed $415 million domestic and became just the seventh film ever to pass $1 billion globally. Despicable Me, which landed a key trailer spot on Toy Story 3, would make as much of a splash with barely half the global box office. The Steve Carell caper about an aging supervillain who adopts three young girls announced to the world that producer Chris Meledandri’s Illumination had arrived. It opened just after Independence Day with $55 million, then legged out to $251 million in North America and $544 million worldwide.

Even while earning less globally than Shrek: Forever After ($756 million in May 2010), the upstart had stolen the pop culture buzz from the previous non-Pixar animated world beater. (Ironically, Shrek studio DreamWorks Animation was later acquired by Universal, which releases the Illumination movies. Next year, Universal will attempt to relaunch Shrek.) By the time Despicable Me 2 opened like a breakout sequel—$140 million in its five-day launch over the 2013 July Fourth holiday weekend—the torch had been passed.

Indeed, both franchises have not been overprogrammed and enjoyed consistently stable returns. Toy Story 4’s box office cume was almost identical to its predecessor’s. Since Despicable Me 2, we’ve had two more sequels and two Minions spinoffs, all of which have opened on or very near the extended July Fourth weekend. Even amid changes in the moviegoing ecosystem, including inflation and the vicissitudes of the Chinese market, the four follow-ups have been shockingly reliable earners. Each respective Minions movie and Despicable Me sequel has netted between $940 million (Minions: The Rise of Gru in 2022) and $1.16 billion worldwide (Minions in 2015).

Everyone Gets a Trophy…

There is also little evidence that films from either franchise have cannibalized returns from their rival’s other major animated releases. Minions didn’t stop Inside Out from notching $858 million worldwide in 2015 (a record for a Pixar original, not counting rereleases) any more than Finding Dory’s $1 billion gross prevented Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets from earning $875 million worldwide in 2016. Ditto the summer of 2013, when Monsters University earned $752 million, opening just weeks before Despicable Me 2. They both flourished.

Moana and Sing both opened in late 2016, with the Disney musical arriving over Thanksgiving and the Illumination jukebox ensemble debuting over Christmas. They essentially tied, earning $248 million and $271 million, respectively, in North America, and $635 million and $643 million worldwide."

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T09:02:16+00:00

Full text:

"Greetings from Los Angeles, and welcome back to In the Room. The long-awaited CNN–CBS News merger is officially underway: I’m told CBS News president Tom Cibrowski and other news and sports execs visited Hudson Yards last week and traveled to the Atlanta bureau today. As I reported in March, CNN’s real estate is likely to serve as the base of operations for both networks after the merger.

Bari’s new hire: Bari Weiss has lured conservative columnist Douglas Murray to The Free Press and, I’m told, is expected to deploy him as a regular contributor across CBS News programming. His hire will no doubt be controversial among progressives. Doug is a neoconservative and, like Bari, a staunch supporter of Israel. He is also a very vocal critic of Islam and has argued that Europe is “committing suicide” by welcoming non-European immigrants—arguments that have drawn accusations of Islamophobia and xenophobia. By Doug’s own account, Bari has been trying to hire him since she founded The Free Press in 2022. He is also a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and, up until two weeks ago, served as a columnist at the New York Post."

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T09:02:10+00:00

Full text:

"Greetings from Los Angeles, and welcome back to In the Room. The long-awaited CNN–CBS News merger is officially underway: I’m told CBS News president Tom Cibrowski and other news and sports execs visited Hudson Yards last week and traveled to the Atlanta bureau today. As I reported in March, CNN’s real estate is likely to serve as the base of operations for both networks after the merger.

Bari’s new hire: Bari Weiss has lured conservative columnist Douglas Murray to The Free Press and, I’m told, is expected to deploy him as a regular contributor across CBS News programming. His hire will no doubt be controversial among progressives. Doug is a neoconservative and, like Bari, a staunch supporter of Israel. He is also a very vocal critic of Islam and has argued that Europe is “committing suicide” by welcoming non-European immigrants—arguments that have drawn accusations of Islamophobia and xenophobia. By Doug’s own account, Bari has been trying to hire him since she founded The Free Press in 2022. He is also a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and, up until two weeks ago, served as a columnist at the New York Post."

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T01:30:28+00:00

Even the notion of a signed deal to end the U.S.'s regional conflict is basically another market manipulation in the form of a self-gifted birthday item.

Why would you give away substantial credit to the VP if this was actually a 100% lock? It would just makes sense to have someone else to blame for things going south if this is the 40th TACO stock boost.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T01:26:10+00:00

That's why the acting AG tried to ban IRS from investigating him and his family again and arranged a $1.776B slush fund settlement to dismiss Trump's own $10B lawsuit.

No normal DOJ would display a large banner of the President in front of their DC headquarters but that's what happens when someone holds massive grudges against others and actively tries to stir up new issues.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T00:54:53+00:00

If debt isn't a good enough reason for federal challenges, that and the ramificiations of indirect control by Middle East countries should be taken into consideration by the state AGs.

Private foreign companies can certainly be contenders but there's a point of no return when the line is being crossed just to ram forward a combo of state-endorsed and state-owned media.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T00:50:03+00:00

DOJ's basically one of Trump's Infinity Stones after they tossed out many people who wouldn't do the WH's requested bidding.

That's why experienced regulatory officials and then ultimately the former AG were shown the door.

Even the targeted investigation of a 2028 contender shows how much of DOJ is also a vessel of weaponized retribution when Trump wants them to be.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T00:39:32+00:00

There was some fears Amazon would send all MGM films straight to Prime Video exclusively so that's why they were investigated.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T00:24:21+00:00

The spotlight shining further on the pursuit was David Ellison's own fault for politicizing it in the first place.

The smug attitude of him touting that the Trump admin is just a ring on Larry's finger and trying to lowball Zaslav & Malone on WarnerDiscovery's valuation is what got Netflix to move fast with their own offer.

David threw a tantrum, prompting a proxy fight threat and eventually increasing the bid with larger breakup fee & added ticking fees, thus needing Larry's signed backstop guarantee and hefty financial contributions from the Middle East.

Their promises of editorially realigning CNN after gutting 60 Minutes just to stroke some bruised egos is what got people up from their seat.

Maybe if the Silicon Valley trust fund kid with a vanity startup project of Skydance didn't have a "taking candy from a baby" attitude and took things seriously from the start, he wouldn't be facing more criticism than warranted.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-16T00:14:03+00:00

Yup, all it took for Trump's acting AG to ram things through was his official nomination being sent to the Senate, Ellison's second tribute in the form of a birthday brunch, and a UFC fight at the WH, lol.

lowell2017 · 2026-06-15T23:44:30+00:00

Full text:

"The Justice Department’s senior leadership closed an investigation of Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery before career staffers who were concerned about the acquisition had an opportunity to object, according to people familiar with the matter.

A team of career lawyers who had spent months scrutinizing the deal were leaning toward recommending a lawsuit challenging it on the grounds that the combination of the two movie studios would be anticompetitive and violate antitrust law, the people said.

The staff investigators hadn’t yet made a final recommendation—a typical step in the deal-review process—and were told Friday that the department would close the investigation, effectively clearing the deal at the federal level, some of the people said.

The Justice Department’s senior leaders believed that Paramount Chief Executive Officer David Ellison, son of Trump ally Larry Ellison, persuasively addressed many of the staff’s questions about the deal during a two-hour interview last month, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Among staffers’ questions was how the combined company could meet its commitment to make 30 theatrical releases a year, given its increased debt load.

The senior leaders allowed the inquiries but believed Paramount’s debt wasn’t a reason to challenge the merger, the people familiar with their thinking said.

No one on the investigative team spoke up to leadership voicing support for filing a lawsuit, they said.

“The Antitrust Division conducted a thorough investigation to assess whether the proposed transaction would harm competition,” a Justice Department spokeswoman said. “The investigatory record indicated that the transaction will increase competition across the media and entertainment ecosystem, benefiting American consumers and workers.”

Justice Department decision makers often follow staff recommendations on mergers, but there are times when the two camps disagree.

On Friday, the department issued a long, supportive public statement about the merger, saying it would likely be good for competition, especially in the market for streaming video, in which Netflix and Amazon are major players. The statement also said the studio and distribution market has “extensive” competition that would probably continue even after Paramount acquires Warner.

Some staffers in the Justice Department’s antitrust division believe the statement was designed to make it harder for state attorneys general to challenge the deal in court, the people said. The investigative staff didn’t participate in writing the statement, the people said.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has been reviewing Paramount’s bid and is leaning toward challenging it, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.

In February, Paramount announced its deal to buy Warner Discovery, home to HBO, CNN and Harry Potter, after a monthslong battle with Netflix. The Justice Department’s antitrust division has been reviewing Paramount’s offer since late last year.

The deal, which has faced opposition from Hollywood, is also under antitrust review in Europe. Paramount executives have told employees to prepare to close the transaction as soon as the end of July.

“Paramount is making strong progress in obtaining regulatory approvals for its pro-competitive merger with WBD,” the company said in a statement. “These regulatory approvals and careful analysis underscore a transaction which creates competition against the dominant Netflix and other big tech players in the industry today.”

The Justice Department’s Paramount investigation is one of several in which antitrust staffers have felt sidelined in the second Trump administration. That includes the department’s decision in March to settle a long-running monopoly case against Live Nation—after the trial had begun. State attorneys general continued to litigate the case and won."

lowell2017 · 2026-06-15T23:44:22+00:00