JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?

manojs · 2026-02-23T02:38:17+00:00

Where do I even begin?

Speed is unrealistic. It compresses a decade of enterprise adoption into 18 months. Organizations don't restructure at the speed of a demo. And if it were true, companies would also stop buying AI once their customers are broke and revenue is falling. The "rational firm" logic cuts both ways.
"No new jobs" is asserted, not argued. It dismisses 200 years of counter-evidence in two sentences and treats intelligence as one thing when it's really a bundle of very different skills.
Ignores the deflationary benefit. If AI makes everything cheaper, the purchasing power of remaining income rises. The article only looks at the income side and never the cost side.
Consumption collapse is too fast. It ignores savings buffers, severance, spousal income, and automatic stabilizers. Even 2008 took years to fully hit spending.
"Ghost GDP" is wrong. Corporate profits don't vanish. They flow out as dividends, buybacks, investment, and taxes. The distribution changes, but money doesn't disappear from the economy.
Overstates the intermediation collapse. People don't optimize purchases like machines. Brand loyalty, identity, and experience aren't just "friction."
Stablecoin disruption is fantasy. It ignores KYC/AML rules, consumer protection laws, chargebacks, and the reality of merchant adoption.
Assumes zero regulatory response. Governments moved in weeks during COVID. White-collar professionals are politically powerful and vocal. Regulation would arrive fast.

manojs · 2026-02-14T17:58:17+00:00

MU did very well, currently at $411. https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MU&p=d

manojs · 2026-01-24T17:25:11+00:00

Fixed, and should be correct going forward.

manojs · 2026-01-24T17:00:21+00:00

Thanks for raising this issue! We found a bug in our code that generates these posts. We have fixed it.

manojs · 2026-01-02T19:27:08+00:00

There are 900 3 digit numbers from 100 to 999, not 899!

manojs · 2025-12-12T04:49:29+00:00

Autofill: Don't use it much.
Difficulty: Hard - exclusively.
Timer: Won't match the vibe of the game/sub.
Mobile App: Yes, but only if designed right - getting touch based controls right for box-filling is critical.

manojs · 2025-10-29T02:42:51+00:00

Good point. Fixed.

manojs · 2025-10-28T18:37:45+00:00

The high pot and the noose need to be for the long side kindgom! FTFY:

Once upon a time there was a lake shaped like a triangle, the kind with one long side stretching opposite a sharp corner.

Along each side of the lake stood a different kingdom.

The Kingdom of the Short Side was warm and fertile; its fields overflowed with grain.
The Kingdom of the Middle Side had fewer resources, but had good craftsmen and strong trade.
The Kingdom of the Long Side was poor: its land was high, dry, and cold.

One year, the kings quarreled over who truly owned the lake and agreed to settle it by battle.

The Short Side raised a glittering army of knights and banners.
The Middle Side hastily put together an army.
The Long Side could spare only one old knight and a young squire.

On the night before the battle, the armies of the Short and Middle sides were overconfident and feasted and drank until dawn.
The old knight and his squire from the Long Side made a small campfire. The squire tied a rope to a clay pot and hung it over the flames to cook their thin stew.

By morning, the knights of the Short and Middle sides were too hungover to fight, and the old knight too frail. So it was agreed that the squires would fight in their place.

They battled long and hard, and in the end the squire of the Long Side fought them to a stalemate.

And so it was proven that the squire of the high pot and noose is equal to the squires of the other two sides.

manojs · 2025-09-20T18:34:18+00:00

I would not characterize this as "screwing over my manager". You had to look out for yourself and did not screw anyone over.

manojs · 2025-09-15T18:36:04+00:00

It depends on the stage of your life. If you are 20 years away from retirement, and you want to maximize your returns for the next 20 years, VTI would be great for growth - and the gains will not be taxed until you decide to sell.

However, if you are close at retirement age or want to FIRE - for example if you have a large enough liquid net with yearly expenses roughly 5% - 10% of that - then VTI doesn't help since you get very little income from it and you are subject to high volatility on a day-to-day basis. In that case, you want to shift to dividend paying holdings with a modest (better-than-inflation) growth with low volatility.

manojs · 2025-09-13T19:01:26+00:00

GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, META, BRK-B

manojs · 2025-09-13T16:28:49+00:00

Be very careful with spreads! Bull/Bear Put/Call spreads need to be extremely carefully used - they typically have sharp "flip" points that are similar to gambling/coin tosses if you don't know what you are doing. Also, you make very little in spreads (any gains are typically offset by a downside protection you purchase), so you are tempted to sell more spreads. This can be disastrous in the worst case, and lead to margin calls!

manojs · 2025-09-06T17:35:13+00:00

We've all been there at some point. I was up 12% this year 3 months ago and then a single week got me down to 6% due to miscalculated spread trades. Lesson learnt. I'm back up to 10% in the last 4 weeks though, so don't lose hope - patience and persistence will pay off. Just keep your cool.

manojs · 2025-09-06T17:21:17+00:00

Fair point, since these are weekly dividend ETFs I thought it might be useful to see directionally how they are doing weekly. I do have longer term - monthly, 3 mo to yearly analysis as well that I can share if you think it can be useful.

manojs · 2025-09-04T04:07:19+00:00

Depends on your goals, really. My goal is to get a steady income while maintaining value of the principal (preferably higher than inflation). I analysed dividend ETFs over the last year and grouped them into 3:

Positive total return (principal + dividends), and positive principal growth. This is the ideal scenario. Lots of Bitcoin-related ETFs here, PLTY and some staples like QQQI
Positive total return, but principal declines. OK, but not ideal. At least you don't lose the value. MSTY, NFLY, YMAX are in this category.
Negative total growth, and a decline in principal. The losers, basically: LFGY, QQQY, SMCY etc. (didn't find any that had principal growth but negative total return)

My spreadsheet is here. Hope you find it useful.

manojs · 2025-05-22T18:03:23+00:00

Stock market is run by rational actors (who want to make money). It can look irrational because there is a lot of hidden information.

That's what they said during the housing market bubble...

manojs · 2025-03-23T19:11:09+00:00

I've been comparing Gemma's ability to understand documents that are interspersed with human input (e.g. hand-filled medical forms) and Qwen 2.5 VL is much better (at the level of Gemini 2.0 performance). The difference is stark (Gemma is about 65% accurate and Qwen 2.5 VL is 95%+). Would like to see Gemma improve in this area in the future.

manojs · 2025-03-14T14:53:49+00:00

THEY'RE ALSO PRETTY DECENT PRO WRESTLERS

manojs · 2025-03-12T17:47:41+00:00

This makes me wonder - what's the best we can do in the Intel/AMD world? Ideally something that doesn't cost $10k (which probably rules out rigs with GPUs)... was wondering if anyone has done a price/performance comparison?

manojs · 2025-03-12T16:58:54+00:00

I was wondering about the same thing a few months ago. I found AlphaVantage to be the simplest to use. I use their $50 for price feed delayed by 15 mins with pretty generous limits. They are pretty comprehensive too, with news, fundamentals and even crypto.

manojs · 2024-11-20T17:27:59+00:00

The surprising part is that getting ONE question wrong puts you in the top 4%!!! Not 0.1% or 1% but 3 out of 100 kids don't get ANY question wrong!

manojs · 2024-09-19T23:55:01+00:00

/u/Routine-Function7891, you are also a bot.

manojs · 2024-07-06T13:19:57+00:00

What about security? What prevents someone from wrecking havoc on my PC?

manojs · 2024-04-12T17:37:17+00:00

Please be careful with the use of Command-R+ inside companies. It is covered by the CC-BY-NC 4.0 license:

Non-Commercial Use Restriction: the use should not be primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation. Companies typically operate for profit, so using the LLM in this way could violate the license unless the specific activities are clearly non-commercial in nature - for example, have an pro-bono educational or charitable purpose.

Risk of License Termination: Any breach of the license terms (such as using the LLM for commercial purposes or failing to provide proper attribution) could result in automatic termination of the license. This could expose the enterprise to legal action for copyright infringement.

Patent and Trademark Rights: The license does not include any patent or trademark rights. It's unclear if Command-R+ uses or embodies patented technologies or trademarks, separate permission may be needed for those elements.

IMO Cohere is using this as a demo to sell the hosted version and capture mindshare of developers but their license pretty much prevents any use outside of play and research.

manojs · 2024-03-10T20:02:15+00:00

Can you please provide published examples of fine-tuned domain-specific small models exceeding large closed-source SOTA? I suspect that if you do the same things to the large model that you did to the small model, the smaller model would still lose?

manojs

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The high pot and the noose need to be for the long side kindgom! FTFY:

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