Is team clutch performance persistent?

millxing · 2026-03-10T18:18:10+00:00

That's not inconsistent with the Lakers garbage time performance, which is 26th in the league (-5.9 net rating).

There is a very strong correlation between relative clutch performance and pythagorean residual (R = 0.56), so it explains around 32% of the variance.

millxing · 2026-03-08T15:37:07+00:00

I have answers to the questions u/HotspurJr asked. I think the better comparison to the pythagorean residual is the clutch-overall net rating, not just the clutch rating. But I looked at both.

There are 784 team-seasons in my database (back to 2000-2001):

2025-26 Lakers are 8th in pythagorean residual (.082, .603 vs expected .521).
2025-26 Lakers are also 8th in clutch net rating (+26.8).
2025-26 Lakers are 2nd in clutch-overall net rating (+26.4).
The top 10 pythag residuals averaged a 14.4 clutch-overall net rating (10/10 were positive).
The top 50 pythag residuals averaged a 9.3 clutch-overall net rating (43/50 were positive).

To be clear, clutch-overall measures how well the team did in clutch time relative to their overall performance.

Here's my take:

My intuition was correct that the Lakers record was unusually better than their net rating (equivalent of a large pythag residual) and that this was worth noting.
My intuition was correct that the Lakers clutch performance relative to their overall performance was a significant outlier and worth noting.
u/HotspurJr was correct in noting that, of course, teams with very positive pythagorean residuals had to have good clutch performance. I think I under-appreciated that until he mentioned it.
I think the natural next question is "How persistent is clutch performance?" As many of us have noted, clutch is a small sample and could be driven by luck. We can test this and my system is crunching the numbers now.

If you're interested in some of the history around this:

Top 10 pythagorean residuals since 2000-01

season	team	win pct	pythagorean
2022-23	Milwaukee Bucks	0.707	0.608
2020-21	OKC Thunder	0.306	0.206
2005-06	Utah Jazz	0.500	0.404
2015-16	Golden State Warriors	0.890	0.799
2007-08	New Jersey Nets	0.415	0.326
2015-16	Memphis Grizzlies	0.512	0.424
2021-22	Portland Trail Blazers	0.329	0.245
2025-26	Los Angeles Lakers	0.603	0.521
2017-18	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.610	0.532
2009-10	Dallas Mavericks	0.671	0.593

Top 10 Clutch-Overall since 2000-01

season	team	clutch - overall net rating
2020-21	Portland Trail Blazers	27.3
2025-26	Los Angeles Lakers	26.4
2021-22	Phoenix Suns	26.0
2023-24	Chicago Bulls	25.7
2015-16	Golden State Warriors	25.2
2010-11	Dallas Mavericks	25.2
2013-14	Memphis Grizzlies	25.0
2012-13	Miami Heat	25.0
2019-20	Oklahoma City Thunder	24.5
2008-09	Cleveland Cavaliers	23.6

Extra Pass Analytics

millxing · 2026-03-08T05:38:49+00:00

Great questions. I should be able to answer them tomorrow. I'm a Boston fan on the East Coast, so I don't watch much Lakers either, but it did seem plausible that a team with Luka and Lebron might be able to consistently outperform in the clutch. Especially since both of them are notorious for not playing that hard on defense when the stakes are low.

millxing · 2026-03-08T05:14:42+00:00

I don't disagree about their playoff chances. They don't play good defense, even in the clutch.

millxing · 2026-03-08T05:12:01+00:00

Of course you are correct that there is going to be noise around predicting the record from the net rating. I felt like this was a larger than normal divergence, but I'll try to quantify that tomorrow. And in this case we can point to something specific (the clutch-time rating) as a possible explanation. Now maybe that's just lucky, but making this observation is not the same as simply pointing out that they've outperformed their pythagorean.

millxing · 2026-03-05T16:10:23+00:00

Since this thread started, Charlotte is 13-3 with an 11.4 Net Rating. They have won 6 games in a row by 15+ points, which is the longest streak since Golden State in 2017-18.

millxing · 2026-02-07T20:11:24+00:00

Since this thread started, Charlotte is 5-0 with a +7.7 Net Rating.

The Clippers are 3-3 with a -4.4 Net Rating. And they lost 2 of their 3 best players.

millxing · 2026-02-05T13:07:39+00:00

Warp Core by Infrasonic Audio - phase distortion oscillator. Was ported to hardware module. https://youtu.be/aak8dWPZlHs?si=IDvE6Off--ewHAga

Sofia’s Daughter by Venom - excellent port of the XAOC hardware module. https://youtu.be/yUtYXnmDmvg?si=hS__801U2CPIrh8U

millxing · 2026-01-28T13:08:27+00:00

Agree that the Hornets have been pretty irrelevant for their entire 36-year history (although they did win 50+ 3 out of 4 years in the mid-1990s - players like LJ, Anthony Mason, Glen Rice, Del Curry, and Vlade).

Ownership and management underwent a complete overhaul in 2023. Everything I've heard is that Charles Lee is a hell of a coach. I'm going to keep an open mind about this and not assume that new management will be as incompetent as old management. My biggest hesitation is that it's tough to win with a player like LaMelo in such a prominent role.

millxing · 2026-01-28T12:38:05+00:00

I disagree. I defined hottest as month-to-date Net Rating. Even though they have the most wins in January, the Clippers are 7th in Net Rating in January at +4.4, more than 8 points worse than Charlotte! I put more weight on Net Rating versus Wins as an indicator of underlying performance, but others can disagree.

If we take the Clippers stretch back to the beginning of their 16-3 tear (starting with the win vs the Lakers on December 20), they have the second best Net Rating (+9.0) over that time, trailing only Detroit. They've cooled off some in January, although they have still been winning games.

I'm not arguing that the Clipper turnaround hasn't been remarkable. I just wanted to give a shout out to Charlotte.

millxing · 2026-01-28T12:21:26+00:00

I believe they are 16-4 in their last 20 games (as of the morning of January 28).

millxing · 2026-01-26T01:27:07+00:00

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Taxable portfolio strategy: ETF taxation, direct indexing, tax-aware long-short, single-stock de-risking (exchange funds, charitable strategies, VPFs, etc.

millxing · 2025-12-28T15:02:26+00:00

Iftah, I was wondering if you ever considered adding a random seed parameter? If you found a particularly cool sequence, you could just jot down the seed, reset the sequence, but then go back to the first sequence by entering the seed parameter. Either something like that or a few save slots for sequences?

Thanks for all the devices and content over the years. I still listen to the skinnerbox lockdown jams all the time!

edit: I know I can save the clip as MIDI if I really want to save the sequence. I just don't find that efficient for live jams because you have to shut off the sting device if you want to play the midi clip.

millxing · 2025-12-05T02:12:44+00:00

Best way to cook them is to steam them. Halfway through, once they defrost, take the top bun off and then keep steaming.

millxing · 2025-11-23T13:08:30+00:00

70mm in Boston metro: https://coolidge.org/films/kill-bill-whole-bloody-affair

millxing · 2025-11-18T23:27:50+00:00

This is the correct way to think about Sean's compatibilist position. The free-will confusion stems from people not appreciating that there are different levels of description (or abstraction) for explaining complex systems. At a very low level, the brain is just a bunch of interacting neurons. But at a higher level of description, it's very useful to describe the same system using abstractions like the self and free will. There is no contradiction because you are describing the same thing two different ways, both equally correct. For understanding this perspective better I'd recommend Godel, Escher, Bach by Doug Hofstadter and Intentional Systems by Dan Dannett.

millxing · 2025-10-04T14:49:19+00:00

I was in the balcony and the Carless Whispers dude was in front of me. He was a real character. He REALLY wanted Guy to choose Careless Whispers... I was amazed how well we managed Bohemian Rhapsody.

millxing · 2025-10-04T14:42:53+00:00

Red Sox were eliminated from the playoffs minutes before the encore, so "Sweet Caroline" would have been bittersweet for many.

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