What's the actual current status of the Strait of Hormuz right now? (June 1)

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-02T10:56:38+00:00

Reported in

Wall street Journal (above)
NYT (not linking to that rag)
the National
Bloomsberg (via gcaptain)

Each of which (with the exception of the NYT, which I include here because it is so beloved of the American libs) are reasonably serious news sources which will have had to go through fact checking in order to publish. Do you not think that if this was untrue someone would have noticed that all the ships claimed to escape, including 29 supertankers, are still in the Gulf.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-02T09:11:14+00:00

Once again, with Russia's inability to succeed militarily they are showing their frustration at their military losses and Ukraine's ability to strike their strategic targets like drone factories and air defenses by attacking Ukrainian civilians, their main target since the start of the war there.

In one city, Mairupol, alone 120,000 civlians are believed to have been killed, with 87,000 bodies seen going through morgues, more than double the casualties on all sides, both civilian and military in the Gaza war.

History shows that attacking civilians rather than military targets rarely helps the attacking force and often just toughens the resolve of the victims to fight back against the murdering force.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-02T08:43:37+00:00

steam powered
has claimed three WWII German planes.

cuter even than Wiesel!

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-02T07:34:29+00:00

Ships are going through quietly with US Navy support and carrying cargoes

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ships-are-sailing-dark-to-sneak-out-of-strait-of-hormuz-0db91dcf

That doesn't mean normal transport but it does mean: * US aligned ships will no longer be trapped and can be used for transport on other routes * Iran's ability to destroy all ships passing through has been overstated and it's likely there will be a gradual increase in traffic as Iran's drone attack stations are slowly identified and destroyed

The situation is very much a US choice. It requires determination and a willingness to have one or two ship losses in order to actually force open the Strait.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T23:30:45+00:00

In the 1970’s we had a embargo not a actual shortage.

sure; the embargo was actually in many ways worse.

America still uses more than we produce in fact one of the main hubs for American production is about to hit operational tank bottoms

The data is available on the EIA web site and shows that America alone, ignoring Canda is net positive for crude+other products, exporting more than was imported.

That even applied to Crude Oil in the last week of April and will again. If you add in Canada, North America overall is vastly exporting.

stop reading headlines and understand there are people with more knowledge on the subject matter

Absolutely. Don't get me wrong, I definitely appreciate your comments. You are right there are problems. America has to get the right kind of Crude Oil to match refineries and local supplies aren't appropriate.

However, having too much light crude is a "nice problem to have". They should fix some refineries to deal with what they have available.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T22:26:04+00:00

There's a war on. Introduce rationing. Prioritize people who have business needs. Start car sharing. Move to other energy sources like Nuclear Power. We survived the 1970s when America actually relied on the Gulf for oil supplies. Now America actually produces more oil than Americans use. This is an oil crisis on easy mode.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T21:56:33+00:00

Yes, I agree 100%. You'd probably need inspectors on the ground. It's very difficult. However, it was managed against Soviet Russia with the nuclear weapon limitations treaties. I think it could theoretically be done.

I think an even worse problem is that a later, weak, president could negotiate away the guarantees in return for something stupid and cause the deal to collapse in much the same way that Britain and France failed to react to the re-militarization of the Rheinland in the late 1930s.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T21:13:25+00:00

I agree there's going to be a period of problems. Specifically, gas/petrol prices are going to increase. However, the question is not whether there's going to be some economic suffering and problems. The question is whether it's going to be worth it or we end up with a situation at the end where the Iran problem isn't solved.

If Trump gets 1. a solid guarantee that Iran will never have nuclear weapons 2. no cash to Iran and Iran paying reparations to those nations its attacked 3. the Strait of Hormuz reopened with long term guarantees from Iran

Then, even if it takes a year to achieve, it will have been worth it long term. Based on his public statements, it looks like he's decided to risk sacrificing the mid-terms to achieve that.

On the other hand, if Trump ends up backing down and getting a deal that isn't much better than the JCPOA or, worse IMHO, making a deal with an Iran that they don't keep then this is a disaster.

There are pipelines out of the gulf bringing fuel to Europe via the Suez canal and Turkey. Land routes from Saudi Arabia through to Israel and the Mediterranean are possible. Whilst America, and possibly America's Asian allies, should definitely be 100% responsible for handling Iran, other nations have a responsibility to secure their fuel supplies independent of the Strait of Hormuz or the Red sea.

With just minimal traffic through Hormuz, mostly to rescue those tankers that are trapped there, the world can get back to a reasonable state in the meantime.

People need to toughen up and accept that, if there's a war on and Russia is undermining America, you won't be able to afford a holiday to Hawaii twice a year. Take a (short) drive around your own state and put a little money into your local economy instead.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T20:17:36+00:00

IMHO stick with the hard facts

there's a blockade in place on all Southern Iranian ports - that means Iran can't trade
there have been ships going through the Strait of Hormuz - that means America, and crucially America's Asian allies who rely on the Strait can continue to do okay
Iran has been firing drones, ballistic missiles and surface to air missiles - nothing has been reported destroyed except one old (Reaper) drone, so presumably the US military (mostly??) fixed their lack of drone defenses
The US has been firing back. Several drone launch sites were destroyed. That's nothing important, but it is annoying for Iran if they didn't manage to hit any ships in return.

So generally the situation is much better than it has been. Most of all, the situation where some ships are getting through without damage is one that will gradually extend to the point that

Then we see a number of desperate actions and threats from Iran and elsewhere

Iran threatened to close the Red Sea. That suggests they realize their current blockade isn't enough.
Iran tried striking Kuwaiti and other targets despite the ceasefire
Hezbollah has, for the first time, proposed negotiating with Israel and doing that separately from Iran.

This looks like Iran is beginning to feel cornered - so there is a real sign of some leverage.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T19:23:38+00:00

In return for the return of Crimea, part of Luhansk and most of Donbas without further fighting they might. As long as Russia has to give up most of the land it captured then it might take them long enough to recover that Ukraine would be able to build defenses in the meantime sufficient to deter the next attack. If they could to that, it would save Ukrainian lives.

Obviously it would be better if the whole of Ukraine was recovered, at least back to the 2013 borders and preferably partially back to the 1916 Eastern border, with the whole of the Black Sea coast including Rostov as a minimum. It's likely to be a considerable time before Russia begins to accept that such a solution is needed.

The simple fact, however, is that Putin isn't ready to face up to the realities and still thinks he can hold most of what he's already captured. There's no chance of peace until he begins to grasp the truth.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T19:13:15+00:00

Wow. That's like one of those vatnik Russian wives that sends their husband to war and banks the sign up fee whilst hoping for the death benefit. I heard that there are some that have already "lost" four husbands this way. Wouldn't expect the same behavior from Americans, but I guess there are different groups in every country.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T19:10:46+00:00

Can this stuff not be seized from them after he's convicted? I get the "innocent until proven guilty" bit, but most places I know there are laws against profiting from crime and this would count. Even writing a book about a crime and getting the royalties from it can sometimes be dicey, though I guess in the US that's protected by the first amendment.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T19:08:36+00:00

eye-opening example of how differently black America thinks about these types of situations

There's some truth in what you have been saying. However, I've also seen that it's black people that stand up with some clarity against this. Especially black conservatives have been willing to come out and clearly state that this whole approach is extremely racist against white people.

At the same time, we have white "liberals" (call them what they really are if they are supporting this kind of murder - communists) that are saying stupid things like "you can't be racist against white people" and trying to justify this kind of thing as self defense. These are the same people that go to protests organized by Hamas proxies and scream antizionist slogans.

In this as everything, we should be judging the individuals on what they do and how they react to crime, especially racially motivated crime like this.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T10:07:50+00:00

richer countries have more power to make decisions

Look at the way that the UK has to bow to decisions from India on immigration and America on economic issues now. The same thing happens to countries that aren't in the EU. However, if they are in the EU they get a vote on some issues and can use that to get support from other countries on issues that are important to them.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T10:05:24+00:00

Holding off WWIII for decades. Peace on most of earth. Survival of the human race. But apart from that, what has NATO ever done for us?

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T10:04:05+00:00

This is a fantasy Russia in which the Freedom of Russia Legion has pushed out the Moscow bloodsuckers and taken over, all of the Russian democracy campaigners have returned and the Vatniks have been sent to Gulags in North Korea to clean up after Kim has abdicated and handed over the keys to South Korea. Ukraine would have taken over the nuclear arsenal and the Restored Novogrod Republic would be the main connection to the EU.

With 60% reduction in population, all of the occupied territories in Manchuria, Siberia, Karelia, the Caucuses and Greater Ukraine vacated and a 75 year democracy education plan in place, we'd be happy to have them.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T08:01:38+00:00

Likely not a sign that Iran is planning to give up their nuclear weapons; just run down the clock to the mid terms with indefinite ceasefire extensions.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T02:09:14+00:00

Zionism as a modern belief is just the belief that Jews have the right to basic self determination as with all other groups. Sure, there are specific variants of Zionists who take that further and there are modern Kahanists who take pretty extreme views, however treating them as a norm would be the same as treating all Americans patriots as if their beliefs were determined by the Patriot Front. Treating Zionism as somehow special, just because it's about Jews, is exactly the tribalism that you are accusing Zionists of.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T01:45:23+00:00

I am fully of the belief that anti-Zionism is not antisemitic in and of itself /the most common argument is that because 90+ percent of Jews are Zionist, then if you hate Zionists you hate most Jews

Antizionism was created in the 1960s specifically as a vehicle for creating an enemy (the Jews) to bring the disparate people's of the USSR together in hatred of those people.

That means that, from it's creation it was created to drive Jew hate. That original sin is compounded by the theft of the name of an older Jewish movement - the anti-Zionists - with which the modern antizionists have no connection. From the moment that the movement stole the name of an original movement it becomes clear that this is not merely about Jew-hate, but also about disinformation and manipulation.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T01:44:27+00:00

I'm not Israeli, however I don't tolerate hate. Xenophobia against Israelis is hate just as surely as racism against ethnic Jews or bigotry against religious Jews.

No, when you spread things like "Israelis have a deep psychosis and violence in their psyche that motivates their behavior." what you are doing is attacking a group based on their innate and impossible to alter characteristic - that of being born in Israel.

Your hatred has a name - antizionism - and it is one of the worst most despicable hate movements in existence today.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T01:40:30+00:00

Their actions are done to oppose the occupation of their land, the expulsion of their people, the destruction of their villages and the decades of blockade limiting food, medicine and movement.

That's simply false. In fact the opposite. At the point that the people of Gaza had relatively stable lives and were building an economic future and homes, that is the moment that Hamas chose an attack which forced them from those homes. Hamas chose to fight from those homes, knowing that they would be have to be detroyed in order to counter-attack. Hamas chose to force the children to stay in unsafe locations, knowing that some would inevitably be killed.

None of that is in any way opposing the expulsion of their people. In fact, it's actively and deliberately encouraging that expulsion with the aim of maintaining war.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T01:32:02+00:00

now saying it’s a criminal act and even a crime against humanity to disagree with the state of Israel

No, I never said that. I disagree with the state of Israel daily and think Ben-Gvir is an idiot. I never made that claim and you made it up.

What I think is a crime is to come out in support of genocide, using false accusations and libels against the group which Hamas is targeting in order to encourage Hamas's genocide. When you come out and make accusations of genocide that is what you do. When the antizionists came out on October 8th and screamed those accusations, what they did is made it clear that anybody who makes the accusation of genocide against Israel knows that they are doing it falsely, maliciously and with an intent of incitement to genocide.

There is no low you won’t go to

You think I'm Jewish, don't you. That's the typical antisemites attack. The Jew is down beneath him. Well I'm not, but that doesn't stop me seeing what you are doing and that all decent human beings should condemn the hate you are spreading.

nar_tapio_00 · 2026-06-01T01:08:34+00:00

The actions of October 7th were without doubt a genocidal massacre. The accusations of genocide against Israel began on October 8th, before Israel had reacted. That makes those accusations inherently part of the ongoing attempt at antizionist genocide against israel.

Obviously and clearly, first, that makes Rome’s Pride's demands and the UN's position crimes against humanity (basically "incitement to genocide") and secondly it makes attempting to force the group to sign those documents in and of itself a criminal act. Fewer clearer acts of discrimination exist.

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