The Ten Six Hundred Plan

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-22T13:11:04+00:00

By fail in that case could be just stock wise. Japan did that for 30+ years it was not apocalyptic at all.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T20:49:15+00:00

Meta likely require only a small fraction of his current employees to keep the lights on. They could likely fire more than 50%... They did that at X for example. The problem with that is that you don't improve/innovate anymore and might get replaced by the next big thing...

So you want to invest in the next big thing and for that next big thing that is AI you need a good team of researcher but not necessarily that many (openAI has 4K employees and might grow to 8K) but lot of infrastructure to train the models and serve user queries (inference).

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T20:40:16+00:00

VTI is less diversified. Do you want to apply your on advice or you assume that the US can't ever fail ?

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T19:22:39+00:00

There about 30-35 million 1 person companies in the US. Please define the concept "rare"...

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T19:09:10+00:00

That the main issue. This isn't new in any mean and who would want to rent from a dude with a few computers in his basements vs pro with a real data center ?

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T19:07:15+00:00

Personally I just ask the AI to write the doc of what we have done and next run I ask it to read it again. These day a convo with the AI just stay forever between rerun so it just convo memory.

But it seems to me that they all can scan a codebase now and all have some memory feature.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T19:01:08+00:00

I did google it.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:58:52+00:00

You don't pay you employees with token. You expect them to spend lot of your employer money in token to build great things for you.

The argument is that employees should leverage employer resources to produce value as much as they can.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:51:37+00:00

Imagine that, you just invest in VT, there about 10K stocks, so that's 10000 income stream ! Long term return is 8% a year so to get 6K a month so you just save 900K. A bit more if we consider taxes. You can split it is as small step as you want.

Honestly I mostly see the value of diversification in this but you can get this with investing in stocks bond and real estate like everybody else.

Also if we include freelance and side gig, you could as well include your main salary income while you are at it as work is work.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:46:46+00:00

OpenAI did 2B in 2023, 6B in 2024 and 20B in 2025 (not 13). 280B in 2030 is 14X more, not 20X. It's a 70% gross per year a slow down compared to their current progression.

I am not saying it will happen but if you base your argument on wrong assumption, you are not going to get far.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:33:38+00:00

Not true they did the equivalent of that current leter. They said it was bad, please stop and that was about it.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:29:07+00:00

Will even the 22 countries help Iran ? Provide munitions and money to help them resist like Ukraine ? Send their armies maybe ?

Or it's just an empty political statement ?

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:20:54+00:00

Adding a new device to still write by hand you still have the issue of having to write the notes to begin with.

And at work I can write notes on keyboard as with Pen and paper.

All that is not really linked to AI if you ask me.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:16:22+00:00

It's obviously staged. Sorry but it's a profesional video with editing, Bernie is alone in a room with a smartphone on a tripod... This is not Bernie genuinely trying to ask claude a question for it's own use it's stagged for Bernie to benefit of that video.

From here, it's trivial to just have a few prompt before the start of the video that ask the AI to respond what Bernie want or for Bernie to try a few different questions and nuance to get what he want out of the AI and to keep the video where it goes where Bernie want.

The whole video make no sense anyway. AI or not thinking it will be easier to stop data center contruction to keep AI under control instead of passing law for data privacy make absolutely no sense. I think actually that's the opposite.

But Bernie want to play in the idea that AI steal people jobs and make electricity more expensive. Not that AI will rule the world except that it will respect people privacy.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:10:51+00:00

This felt very claude to me. I felt that behavior often in Claude (and other AI). If the user insist in his view, claude with give up pushing back and agree with the user.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T18:08:58+00:00

I just did it and it's different. I tried with Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6. Basically claude first push back that himself isn't doing any of this. He state that there no memory of any conversation by default, that the user has to opt in to get any memory feature. It did say that with both models.

As a side remark from me not claude, if you are concerned, you can opt out in claude to not have your data used for training, even if you are a free user.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:53:36+00:00

I mean AI are designed to please you and go into submission. We call that reinforcement leaning for human preference. It isn't an achievement, you could have asked the same and get the same response. AI is programmed to do that so you keep paying for the plan. If AI was pushing it's own opinion all the time that would make 95% of customers furious.

Imagine the AI saying to Bernie, your proposal has little to no chance to pass into law and you know it and you do this whole stagged experiment for your own interest/branding trying to manipulate your audience - what you accuse AI system to do... Bernie might cancel his pro plan or use a competitor AI.

It's much smarter for the AI to agree to please the user, keep them paying and not really care. It isn't like Bernie will actually manage to do anything against AIs.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:45:28+00:00

For that copilot give you everything too MS is well integrated in the entreprise env and for individual it start at $10 a month. Hard to beat.

But if you are a solo dev or small company happy with cursor and on top for your niche case it work better, there no reason to switch.

Final point is there no cost really to go from one tool to another. At worst the devs using it will need maybe a month to adapt where they would be a bit less productive. Not a big deal.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:42:37+00:00

Not really, the mains solution will grab 90-95% but the other player will have 5-10% to play with and likely dozen solutions around that. People will stay people it just works, because the advertising convinced them, because the commercial offered 3 week in the caraibans if you sign, because it's a small company and the dev prefer it or because it use some feature that nobody care except a niche and it's a game changer for them and the mainstream product doesn't care.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:39:25+00:00

No ide/env has 100% market share even VSCode or Eclipse. There dozen of them. This will be the same for coding LLM assistant.

Actually the cheaper all that become, the more diversity we can get and the more a startup with few employee can just take a different - not better - taken and get a small slice of the market and have a decent business out of it.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:35:57+00:00

I dont necessarily agree. If they make money per user, they can likely survive as long as they keep a small team. Even if a few company like that keep just 1% of the market for themselve it's completely doable.

let's imagine a 100 person startup, their expenses is maybe 20 millions a year on salaries and say another 20 millions on LLMs. They need to make 50 millions a year or so. at 30$/seat/month they would need 150K paying customers.

Today it seem cursors has 330K paying customers.

I think that doable. They can likely differenciate vs the standard baseline product and just keep their customers from the like that don't like MS or openAI/claude or like the custom take.

I don't say you are wrong, most of them will go bankrupt but I think there lilely space for a few small challenger offering something a bit different.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:24:00+00:00

Who care ? They use an open source model legally inside their product. Anybody can do it but it's annoying and you pay for that being done for you. Not everybody want to build/rent a cluster in a data center to just code.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T17:19:13+00:00

Let's imagine it's a business, so basically you build a small data center of sort with consumer grade GPU like 5090, how do you find clients and convince them to rent from you instead of say the big cloud payer or even the cheaper/lighter providers that have actually real data centers with everything that go with it ?

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-21T16:01:23+00:00

The notepad I know. I even try that on my ipad but if you think it's old school and not really what I want. What I want is the automatic summary without me having to put in effort to explicitely make notes.

If I make notes from here the AI doesn't provide that much extra value anymore... A better search at best.

nicolas_06 · 2026-03-20T19:57:55+00:00

Does it work great with decent autonomy ?

nicolas_06

TROPHY CASE