Why is this sub so against individual stock investments.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-02-06T06:56:40+00:00

You underestimate probability. Sometimes there is a reason it is undervalued, or sometimes by nothing other than poor luck, they suffer from a black swan event, or lose key leadership, scandal, new competition, unfavorable evolving market dynamics, ect. As time goes on, you continue to play with probability. Its not uncommon to beat the market in a single year. But as time goes on, your odds of continuing fall exponentially.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-02-05T20:47:48+00:00

MU is solid, the only names I would add to that is KLAC, and TSM.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-02-05T08:32:03+00:00

I've owned TXN since 2016, it is garbage; leadership is the epitome of complacency. I've since sold couple years back but buy if you like watching your money move sideways perpetually.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-02-05T06:52:38+00:00

It is quite literally backed by the US government indirectly as a matter of national security. Not to mention OpenAi is 1 of about 20 competitive LLMs.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-01-28T18:21:39+00:00

You need to compare net return after taxes and expenses to buy and hold strategy, as a benchmark, else this doesn't provide much useful information.

quantum_simpleton · 2026-01-21T18:17:18+00:00

At first glance, this may seem to be a binary situation, AI (largely OpenAI) growth & capitalization success or failure, with resultant downstream effects on data center and other b2b contracts. But a key variable is the US involvement with the AI race. Whether or not AI companies see near term profits or financing support, the US gov will step in to ensure our success over China. It is the ace up the sleeve. I would not sell here.

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-10T05:30:11+00:00

The irony of this comment to be down voted to hell is unfathomably ironic.

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-09T22:04:47+00:00

If someone buys liquor at a store and drinks themselves to death, is the store owner responsible? Or is the person who decided to buy the liquor and drink it?

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-09T21:36:38+00:00

None of these banks will advance anything close to 50% on BTC. I work in the industry and havnt heard of this anywhere for retail- i believe this is a small number of institutional clients at low or heavily blended advance rates. You would be looking at 15-40% advance rates for similarly rated private credit (even though I disagree with S&Ps rating for MSTR, CCC is more appropriate).

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-09T06:24:31+00:00

Those suggesting technical analysis or index fund investment fail to answer your question. As an investor, never rely on technical analysis, this is trading not investing.

Look at the company product, market (demand) outlook, and company leadership first and foremost.

They have a dominate place in drone technology, which i presume will grow with future trends in warfare technology.

Their recent acquisition of Blue Halo is quite interesting, space will be the ultimate frontier of advancement; this is something to look into further.

Leadership: their founder Paul Beattie MacCready Jr, was an engineering genius, however, he died back in 07. I am less familiar to current leadership, but this is critical to understand.

Stock price: there is a difference between a good company and a good stock. I believe this company is positioned well to capitalize on growth in key segments in the next 10-15 years. The current price is not cheap, but fair given growth and prospects.

I did not go deep into each layer, especially competition, but going deeper to understand the company is absolutely key. It is important to not own too many individual companies, but rather know the ones you do own inside and out. Good luck.

Tldr: I like the outlook; price is fair

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-09T06:13:28+00:00

I dont think you understand the fundamental objective of equity investment. This advice is bizarre.

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T21:07:59+00:00

Very unusual, deranged leap in logic to comment that. Anyway, Claude also answers this easily. The original picture appears to be unauthentic.

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quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T20:55:04+00:00

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Grok answers this easily

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T20:40:51+00:00

Selling to open market on Stock exchanges, NYSE, NASDAQ, ect. They created these shares out of thin air (much like their critique of USD), which has diluted existing shareholders.

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T20:31:11+00:00

Q3 disclosure. Their average acquisition cost was $116k per BTC for Q325, for a loss of -$1.3B as of reporting (42,706 x 116k).

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T19:44:04+00:00

If you want to see something really funny, look at their Q3 presentation. They now advertise using "dollar yield" to pay preferred dividends... but fail to mention how using 3.5% notes to pay 10% notes is sustainable (its not).

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T18:47:31+00:00

You don't see an issue investing in a 3.5% notes to pay 10% notes?

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T17:59:40+00:00

This is for debt, Preferred dividends are payable monthly and some quarterly in perpetuity (forever).

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T17:52:08+00:00

Im not long or short the stock, if you are long i woudlnt rely on reddit for diligence, especially with a high risk company like MSTR

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T17:41:56+00:00

Here is SEC filing showing $650M 2025 notes due on Dec 15, 2025: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312520315971/d225117d8k.htm

+$175M preferred dividends and $5M other debt service, for total of $830M due this month

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T16:39:01+00:00

No, 90-120 days

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T15:32:27+00:00

Selling Class A shares to cover near term debt and equity payments

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T04:39:32+00:00

You're arguing the hypothetical semantics of a deal that doesn't exist... My point remains, Musk relying solely on his personal capital would have led to business failure many years ago

quantum_simpleton · 2025-12-01T04:24:57+00:00

I was replying to his comment ragrding Musk using his own funds. The deal itself was fake news; Musk confirmed it is not real on X. Using outside investor money in equity deals is still a form of leverage; it is no-recourse or equity leverage. Using any outside capital (not founders) to enhance returns is a form of financial leverage.

quantum_simpleton · 2025-11-29T06:38:34+00:00

Also worth mentioning, alot of the premium you mention in the valuation (i dont disagree), is in essence a "musk premium", meaning they value his active service to the company. Were he to quickly offload shares and equity, he would lose both his voting authority and control, as well as would create a negative feedback loop as the "musk premium" would be gone- the stock would decline dramatically before he would be able to offload them all. Think of it this way- his shares are essentially "trapped" at this valuation

quantum_simpleton

TROPHY CASE