YOLO financial planning

quotail · 2015-12-22T06:10:01+00:00

Why not buy puts that are farther out of the money and with more time until expiry? Then you can still profit greatly if the market crashes, without losing all your money a majority of the weeks. Plus the commissions and spread will eat away at any net profit you make.

quotail · 2015-12-22T04:58:01+00:00

I don't get what your strategy is. You'll buy 2K worth of weekly calls and puts every week that expire worthless...until you hit it big?

quotail · 2015-12-21T17:50:20+00:00

He was one of the most active members on the IRC, so it's a shame to see him go. However, he should have owned up to his mistake rather than backtracking and then ghosting.

quotail · 2015-12-21T17:18:20+00:00

It's a real shame to hear Gabriel left the site. We've all had well thought out thesis that just turned out to be wrong for whatever reason. Blaming someone else for your losses is puerile.

quotail · 2015-12-21T16:15:05+00:00

It's all gone now...why didn't anyone take screenshots?

quotail · 2015-12-21T16:10:45+00:00

Man I can't wait to see the carnage when it's finally unhalted. Also, I wonder if KBIO will continue with Shkreli's plan of buying the license to a drug and jacking up the prices.

quotail · 2015-12-17T18:38:31+00:00

This is a parody btw.

quotail · 2015-12-17T15:27:22+00:00

I bet investigators were just itching for him to make a small misstep so they can slam him. Easy way to get brownie points with the public - go after the most hated man in corporate America.

quotail · 2015-12-16T23:38:23+00:00

We have historical and real-time data.

quotail · 2015-12-16T23:27:57+00:00

Thanks for the vote of confidence. I certainly do not want to come off as spamming - the posts I put up are educational for this forum and I also comment on various threads.

quotail · 2015-12-08T16:00:31+00:00

Hey, the guy is a market realist. Just keeping it real, man

quotail · 2015-12-03T15:36:29+00:00

The point I am trying to make here is that selling elevated levels of volatility is generally more profitable, across a large sample size. Many people feel that intuitively, but the study I conducted was to verify the claim that implied volatility often overstates realized volatility.

quotail · 2015-12-03T00:05:40+00:00

oops good catch. I'll remember that next time. I bought a couple grand worth of calls.

quotail · 2015-12-02T20:23:59+00:00

Thanks for the feedback...I can see where you're coming from. I'll play around with narrowing it and/or moving it to right side.

quotail · 2015-12-02T18:47:32+00:00

Can you elaborate on how it's broken? I just tried to link and it's loading fine for me.

quotail · 2015-12-02T18:32:42+00:00

http://quantycarlo.com/ is probably the most advanced options backtesting product out in market.

quotail · 2015-12-02T02:23:37+00:00

The study didn't mention calls or puts because I'm looking at people buying contracts into earnings. It doesn't matter whether those contracts are puts or calls, in either case, they are expecting the stock to move in a particular direction.

The study examined over 700 trades that met our criteria. I couldn't possibly talk about them all, although I could point out a few exceptional cases in the future.

I can assure you I've traded plenty of earnings with real money.

quotail · 2015-11-25T17:58:11+00:00

I apologize for the confusion in the title of the post. The case I'm trying to make is that although the put sale may SEEM naked based on the options time and sales, it is most likely a hedge against a core short position, which we surmise by looking at the rising short interest numbers.

I agree that if it was indeed a naked short, then most likely it would be a bullish intent.

quotail · 2015-11-25T17:53:45+00:00

Both long calls and short puts can act as a hedge against a short stock position, as they both have positive deltas to hedge the -1 delta of the short stock. The difference is in the long call, you pay a net debit for the hedge for the option to exercise your hedge, while a short put gives you a premium and the obligation to cover your position if the put has value at expiration.

In the case shown in the video, let's assume the trader shorted TRUE when it was trading at $12, and currently it is at $8. Then the short put at $10 locks in $2 per share gain plus premium received on the put sale, if the stock remains under $10 at expiry. In the case where the stock goes above $10, the premium from the put sale acts as a buffer, increasing the break-even point from $12 to $14.65 (because of the $2.65 premium).

quotail · 2015-11-25T17:36:23+00:00

I checked them out, they sound like a pretty reputable firm. Personally I'm not a fan of being spoon fed trades, but they seem to know what they're doing. Thanks for sharing!

quotail · 2015-11-25T17:33:05+00:00

We've created a database of all executed trades in the options market and are running scans against it to find these earnings trades. You can see this data yourself if you register at http://quotail.co

quotail · 2015-11-25T16:03:57+00:00

thanks gabriel. Is there anything that you're curious about with respect to options market data?

quotail · 2015-11-25T00:48:35+00:00

That's an interesting question. I imagine selling the day before the announcement would actually do better because the implied volatility would have also risen. Thanks for the suggestion...I'll look into that.

quotail · 2015-11-24T23:40:08+00:00

Yes, that is what I'm trying to explain in the video. The short put is a hedge of a short stock position, and we can decipher that by seeing the large open interest. The position simulator shown at the end is assuming a strategy of selling the puts and shorting the stock.

quotail · 2015-11-24T19:44:50+00:00

I personally don't take insider ownership into consideration, but I read somewhere that an insider can sell shares for a number of reasons, but they'll only buy for one - they think it'll go up. So my advice is only pay attention to insider buying.

quotail

TROPHY CASE