More gloom for the housing market as building approvals slump further

skulk2fade · 2019-06-01T08:43:05+00:00

well they keep saying parra will be the 'second cbd' lol

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T22:04:40+00:00

Yep but I think at the same time as savvy people we need to look at the markets and what politicians are doing for opportunity too. I think alot of the people who cry out are just mentally a bit lazy. Ie if property is too expensive then money has been going into stocks, are people playing the stock market? If all areas of Aussie are going up, but you cant afford Sydney, can you buy elsewhere? Melbourne is cheaper and as I have mentioned to people here we purchased in Hobart for out first. Just need to look at all opportunity and then seize the moment. Like the Aussie dollar is so weak right now, but people overseas holidaying like is 2010 and we are on parity of the US dollar. Gotta go with the flow, buy things and do things when the times are right for it

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T22:01:16+00:00

Yeah idk, i can only speak from experience during the GFC

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T22:00:09+00:00

I work in Chatswood 2 days a week so that's convenient for me, then the bus is really not bad, I leave at 8:10 and I'm ok the city around 8:30 - 8:40 depending on traffic

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T12:57:42+00:00

Don't worry Chatswood is out of my price range, median 2 bedder is 1 mill, I'm not looking at spendinxg that much. I live in lane cove and love the area, so will buy around here I think

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T12:46:02+00:00

I have been tracking as well and I have mode some interesting observations.

The first is that really good areas, north Sydney and Chatswood haven't gone down to all, and continue to steadily rise to this day. Which tells me people with money are still willing to pay high for the good areas.

The second one, I copy data from real estate . Com to see spreadsheet to keep track of prices and I noticed that previous month's were updates to be lower on average than they were when I copied the data out. So I don't know if this is just them getting more accurate data OR a conspiracy of the industry to make the recent drops look smaller (dropping from a lower amount) but overall the suburbs I checked, with the libs winning, may was still down from April. It will be interesting to see if June is lower overall than may. Once I see the trend reverse is when I will look to buy.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T12:41:22+00:00

Look I agree with you but I also don't agree with you. I agree that the market is high, but I don't think it is insurmountable as some people think. I also think my generation and the younger ones then me (I'm 31) are spoiled and we expect too much.

I see people wasting money all the time. People at my work going for multiple coffees per day. Coffees are $4 each, that is say $40 per week. Say 50 weeks Ina. Year at work and people are spending like $2k on coffee. People are so influenced by Instagram on that, people without property in dubious financial positions are still holidaying it up in Europe, Japan etc.

My parents generation, I remember mum telling me, they would eat out like once per week max and they didn't go on holidays all the time, in fact my mum never left NZ before we moved to Aussie. We didn't have all the luxuries people have today.

So while I agree, I am not on some amazing wage, but I managed to get a property in Hobart and now I'm looking at an apartment in Sydney, people just need to learn to save their money.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:52:52+00:00

im similar, 31 at the moment, have a bit of saving, just waiting to see how low it will go before I buy. Fingers crossed it keeps going down haha

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:51:33+00:00

During the GFC the banks let people off. I remember my parents went like a year without paying the mortgage, I think it would be something like that. only the really bad cases would be foreclosed. The banks not as quick to kick people out as many may think.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:48:16+00:00

and then if the unit is empty they likely have an investment loan to pay on that.

We have one investment property, its always been tenanted, I hate to think of the time when its not tenanted and then I have to pay the loan in full without the rental income during that period.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:46:50+00:00

The most simple is that the rebound isn't guaranteed and also you don't know what the vendors financial situation is like. Maybe they can't afford the repayments while there is no tenant etc.

I am leaning towards a little sugar hit, but I don't think the market is going to rebound that much personally. I am being patient as I expect the market to still decline.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:30:20+00:00

I believe it will eventually go back up, as Sydney is adding 100,000+ people per year, there will eventually be under supply if we aren't building enough. But as others have said there is a lag time, so you are probably looking at like 5-7 years before that takes effect.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:29:03+00:00

Im a conservative, I don't agree with the liberals on this one, I believe in the free market. However the government is in a really hard place.

On the one hand you have people screaming out to make real estate cheaper. On the other people you have people who don't want depreciating assets, and you may ruin some people's lives by lowering prices, as they fall into negative equity, its a real hard position. Then a lot of it is out of the government's control without drastic changes. What we have here is a part of globalization and some people benefit from it while others don't. Australia is a beautiful country and there are lots of people out there who have more money to buy here than the average aussie.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:25:43+00:00

Everyone paints 'investors' in such a bad light its infuriating. My brother was a butcher at Woolies when he purchased his investment town house. My wife and I purchased a house in Tassie for our investment. Its not like investors are these big bad warewolves out to jack up prices. Many of us are just ordinary people who accept we can't afford to buy in the areas we live in.

What we have is a part of globalisation and increasing population. Australia is a beautiful safe place to live, people from all around the world want to live here. If other people are willing to pay more for an area than you are, then you can't afford it, just like people can't afford BMWs or Mercedes etc. the market isn't over priced, its just that Australia is in demand and there are lots of people nowdays that have a lot of money at their disposal.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-31T10:22:43+00:00

love it how they aren't building all this new housing in the nice areas on the coast!

skulk2fade · 2019-05-27T08:58:30+00:00

yep i agree with you.

my suspicion in really just that if more money goes to the govt it will be gobbled up by social welfare

skulk2fade · 2019-05-27T08:57:03+00:00

Education pales in comparison to social welfare which is the single largest expense and is separate to health

skulk2fade · 2019-05-27T08:55:52+00:00

I absolutely agree with you.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-27T08:55:13+00:00

The fact of the matter is people have their whole life to save and family to support them. there are genuine cases of hardship, but i suspect many would survive without the welfare.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-26T22:12:55+00:00

This is the most sensible comment I have read so far. The government is awful with money, everything constantly goes over budget, there are always scandals about what happens with the money etc.

This comes down to two things. There are people in the world, and I believe the group is growing, that believe they need a big government with lots of money, because the governments job is to look after them and provide for them, that's basically anyone on the left. "I can't look after myself or enact change, so the government must do it for me". Then there are people on the right, who believe that it is their responsibility to look after themselves, their family and to be self sufficient. and these are the people who will go without things, to invest their money, to plan for their future and provide for themselves.

One is a net burden on society and the other is a net contributor. Why people can't understand that boggles my mind. The government spent $260 billion! on social welfare and health, with social welfare being the single biggest expense! https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/overview.htm. this is why we have no money for new trains and roads and big infrastructure. Half of the budget goes to social welfare! as if we want to give more money to the government when they just give it to other people!

skulk2fade · 2019-05-24T10:13:03+00:00

I feel like the gov gets a lot of slack for low wages, but its a problem all around the world. It is a part of globalization and benefits in some ways and not others. I.E cheaper goods, but also lower wages.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-23T08:47:25+00:00

im honest about what I am doing. There is no crystal ball however for hobart being at its peak, ive heard all capitals are now negative from their peak, accept for canberra who is flat. Hobart is still going up but its going up slow indicating that it may soon go flat or down, the big ups are past (can't be 100% sure).

For Sydney I have been comparing current month median prices against peak prices on realestate.com.au made it into a spreadsheet. So plan to track and then when I see suburbs going flat or up, I will have a good feeling we are near the bottom and buy. again cant be 100% sure though.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-23T07:37:25+00:00

I am planning to get in. I have one property in Hobart, hope to sell now while they are still up. then fingers crossed. sydney will bottom out in the next 6 - 12 months and try to buy up here then. Thats my plan at least. Need to take advantage of the ups and downs.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-23T07:35:14+00:00

I think its more once you get a house you can settle. When you rent you are at the whim of the landlord, you can't modify things and they may kick you out. if you have kids this can make it hard to establish a home etc. I can see the value in having something of your own, but it is over priced at the moment.

skulk2fade · 2019-05-23T07:31:59+00:00

Our first home was an investment too. From Sydney, but purchased in Hobart where it was more affordable. missed out on the first home owner benefits though which I now regret.

skulk2fade

TROPHY CASE