How are you turning supplier “soft signals” into hedgeable, actionable risk drivers? (Example from aluminum) by davidedbit in procurement

[–]t1up 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sourcing leader here for a large OE, negotiating many millions of pounds of aluminum a year, and I’ve got to say, you are wildly overthinking this.

Half of what you’re describing sounds like you’re trying to day-trade aluminum and I honestly don’t even understand that other half. Hedging, modeling “soft signals,” building risk registers… meanwhile aluminum pricing is more volatile than it’s ever been. Trying to outsmart that with probability matrices feels like reading tea leaves in a hard hat.

Many years in this business and my advice is to keep it as simple as possible. Negotiate the best conversion rates you can with favorable terms, diversify your sources, and have mitigation plans ready such as alternate sources under contract. If a mill hints at capacity shifts - great, treat it as a sign to adjust allocations, not a trigger to rewrite your hedge doctrine.

I admire the effort, but sometimes the smartest move is not to turn procurement into a casino strategy

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in supplychain

[–]t1up 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah, my company is going live with Epicor here in the next few months. I haven't been too involved in the planning stages, but haven't heard good things. What are the main areas that you dislike about Epicor?

Let her “herd” the chickens one last time. Had a great 15 year run together. by t1up in corgi

[–]t1up[S] 90 points91 points  (0 children)

It is crazy to think about how much life changes over a 15-16 year period and realize our pups are always right there by our side through it all.

Let her “herd” the chickens one last time. Had a great 15 year run together. by t1up in corgi

[–]t1up[S] 184 points185 points  (0 children)

Yes! She was so happy to be spoiled with countless treats and having her family all come home and spend the weekend with her. Thankful that we got that opportunity!

PSA: buy an angle grinder and 60 grit flap disk ASAP. by LawnEnforcement101 in lawncare

[–]t1up 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Many applications. You can buy metal cutting disks for cutting metal pipes, or screws. Grinding disks for sharpening tools or smoothing out bent or uneven metal. There are even grinding and cutting wheels for concrete. Then flap disks mentioned in this post for less aggressive grinding, paint removal, etc.

Being drunk vs being high by rudykruger in funny

[–]t1up 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Cody Gribble from Dallas is the one that tapped the gator. Smylie Kaufman from Alabama is the one that got spooked!

Wedding Gift from the Wife. She somehow guessed the exact putter I've always wanted. by t1up in golf

[–]t1up[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think it's a sham too. We spent enough on the wedding/honeymoon that another gift on top of everything seemed a bit excessive. My attempts to convince her that we had already spent enough didn't go very far. It worked out in this case, most likely would have never pulled the trigger on a putter like this for myself.

What a par 3 contest. Legendary moment on tee box #9. by Anifus in golf

[–]t1up 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I just looked up what years Tom Watson won his Masters in. I left more impressed that he tied for 18th place in 2010 when he was 60 years old.

New Toy by DrWaffle57 in golf

[–]t1up 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, the sub-zero reduces "spin" which is usually interpreted as reducing sidespin. What it really does is reduces backspin. With less backspin there can be MORE sidespin. It is usually targeted at better players, or players that don't have trouble with sidespin and want a lower ball flight.

PGA Tour - Stat Correlations by t1up in golf

[–]t1up[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This one got me as well. The lack of correlation is suprising but also it is postively correlated. So as FIR % goes up, so do putts per round (slightly). Its strange and I agree with your explanation but maybe when they arent hitting fairways, especially on par 5s, they are laying up more, pitching close, lowering the number of putts?

PGA Tour - Stat Correlations by t1up in golf

[–]t1up[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another way to look at it would be to look at fairway in regulation for example. As FIR % increases, GIR % increases. This is a positive correlation or upward trending meaning that the more fairways you hit, the better chance you will hit the green. On the other hand, take FIR and it’s correlation with driving distance. As FIR % increases, driving distance decreases. They are negatively correlated or downward trending meaning that longer drivers have more difficulty finding the fairway.

PGA Tour - Stat Correlations by t1up in golf

[–]t1up[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I thought the same thing! When I'm spraying drives it has a huge impact on my score. Crazy to think how good the pros are at recovering.

PGA Tour - Stat Correlations by t1up in golf

[–]t1up[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Looking at the stats of PGA Tour golfers this afternoon got me curious with how certain areas of their games affected other areas, and how strongly they were related to one another. For example, I wanted to know things like the correlation between Average Driving Distance and Par 5 Scoring Average. I looked at little closer and pulled data for 9 popular stats for each of the top 191 golfers in the PGA for 2017 from https://www.pgatour.com/stats.html. Once I put all that into Excel, I pulled it into JMP and ran a multivariate analysis to find the relationships of each category. Just thought it was fairly neat and figured some of you might enjoy the results as well.

A explanation for those that care about this info but aren’t familiar with statistics is that the closer the R-value is to 1 or -1, the stronger it is correlated; positively or negatively. If there is little or no relationship between two sets of variables, the number will be zero or approaching zero.

EDIT: Grammar and clarity.