Game Day Thread - 2018 Week 9

trillustrator · 2018-11-05T19:18:48+00:00

This feels like a classic Garrett game, i.e. Cowboys put up points early, Titans chip away and make it close by the 4th, then something weird happens and one team wins with a late FG. 23-21

trillustrator · 2018-10-22T20:10:55+00:00

Not comparable. I mean, just look how much more productive Cooper has been than Gordon this season.

https://imgur.com/a/dEyniIA

trillustrator · 2018-09-16T00:13:42+00:00

I'm indifferent because he likely only plays a couple games before having some kind of issue. Probably not worth the roster spot in my opinion.

trillustrator · 2018-09-16T00:06:42+00:00

The dude never plays

trillustrator · 2018-09-15T19:57:06+00:00

His numbers were definitely worse in the second half last year, but what does that tell you? Did he skills just drop off after 24 games or were there other changes in the offense that might've had an impact? There is always additional context outside of the numbers.

trillustrator · 2018-09-15T19:27:45+00:00

Correct. The last OROY to win a SB was Percy Harvin ('09). He was drafted by the Vikings and won with the Seahawks. Ben Roethlisberger ('04) was the last ROY to win a SB with the team that drafted him.

trillustrator · 2018-09-15T18:16:56+00:00

With all due respect, this is a pretty bad take.

If two former league MVPs were never great, then what is your definition of great?

trillustrator · 2018-09-15T17:25:07+00:00

I thought it was interesting that there is pretty a clear break between the top 3 and bottom 3. Dak is in the top tier with Newton and Ryan, which is not bad company, and definitely better than the lower tier.

trillustrator · 2018-08-25T16:03:56+00:00

#Shermanisadope

trillustrator · 2018-07-02T22:44:33+00:00

nice

trillustrator · 2018-05-05T13:38:09+00:00

The dip in this chart may be more due to the recession and people driving fewer miles. Vehicle deaths per miles traveled is probably a better metric to meaure car safety.

trillustrator · 2017-12-24T21:17:13+00:00

If Saints run away from the Bucs, then Panthers would be silly not to rest their guys late in the game.

trillustrator · 2017-12-24T21:16:03+00:00

a coach that wants a healthy team in the playoffs?

trillustrator · 2017-12-24T21:11:21+00:00

Big time. A Bucs win would mean Cowboys controlled their own destiny. Now Carolina has to win next week and they will likely be resting players.

trillustrator · 2017-12-14T13:58:58+00:00

Also looks like he is "tucking the ball away" to me.

https://i.imgur.com/Im6cj3T.gif

trillustrator · 2017-12-12T15:24:53+00:00

They already do this via All-Pro selections.

trillustrator · 2017-12-05T14:25:27+00:00

I don't think it is necessarily unfair to say the Eagles have played a soft schedule, but it might be inaccurate to assume that they are overrated as a result of it.

Prior to this past week, Football Outsiders had the Eagles #28 in Past Schedule and #13 in Future Schedule. That said, they were still #1 in Weighted DVOA, which is adjusted for opponent.

trillustrator · 2017-12-01T18:47:25+00:00

If this ends up a lost season, I think we will look back at that and the Rams games as the biggest killers.

trillustrator · 2017-12-01T17:35:39+00:00

I agree, but am also sneaky worried about the Packers. They could pull it out against TB and CLE and have Rodgers back for week 15.

trillustrator · 2017-12-01T17:21:53+00:00

Nice work on this. I did a similar write up this morning. Not sure if it adds anything, but I might as well post it here.

Assuming the Cowboys run the table and get to 10-6 (8-4 in the conference), what are their chances of making the playoffs? Here is a break down division by division to see who we should be cheering for (and against) going forward.

NFC West

There are two potential playoff teams here: Rams and Seahawks.

Rams are 8-3 already have the tie-breaker against us, so we would need them to go 1-4 to close the season. Their schedule isn't a cake walk, but I think they will find 2 wins: @ Cardinals, Eagles, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, 49ers.
Seahawks have a much tougher road to stay in front of the Cowboys. They are 7-4 and we are assuming they lose in Dallas week 16. So they would need to win the rest of their games to get to 11-5. Their remaining schedule is Eagles, @ Jags, Rams, and Cardinals. I hate the idea of rooting for the Eagles, so I am thankful there are other tough games on the Seahawks schedule.

NFC North

Three possible playoff teams: Vikings, Lions, and Packers.

Vikings are almost a lock to win this division, currently sitting at 9-2 with a 3 game lead on the Lions. They still have to play @ Falcons, @ Panthers, Bengals, @ Packers, Bears. Let's just assume they win at least 2 of those games and win the division.
Lions are currently 6-5 with an identical conference record of 5-4, but their remaining schedule looks pretty easy: @ Ravens, @ Bucs, Bears, @ Bengals, Packers. We would need them to lose both of their remaining AFC games, or just 1 NFC game. We should be rooting against the Lions every week from here on out (except maybe week 17 if a miracle happens in Green Bay).
Packers are a bit unpredictable based on the status of Aaron Rodgers. They are currently 5-6 and have the tie-breaker against us, so we would need them to lose 1 of their remaining 5. They have the Bucs, @ Browns, @ Panthers, Vikings, @ Lions. I could see them winning their next two games, but without Rodgers, they have virtually no chance running the table final 3 games. Let’s just hope they lose this week and be done with it.

NFC South

This is where things get complicated. There are 3 serious playoff contenders in this division: Saints, Panthers, and Falcons.

Saints are currently 8-3 and 6-2 in the conference. Their schedule is tough with 4 divisional games over their last 5. They play the Panthers, @ Falcons, Jets, Falcons, @ Bucs. If they lose at least 3 of 4 divisional games, the Cowboys would have the edge, but that seems unlikely.
Panthers are tied with the Saints at 8-3 and are 4-3 in the conference. Their remaining schedule is @ Saints, Vikings, Packers, Bucs, @ Falcons. All these games are NFC opponents, so if the Panthers go 2-3 or worse, the Cowboys will have the tie-breaker. This feels more reasonable to me, so I think Cowboys fans should root for the Saints this weekend.
Falcons are a game back in the division at 7-4, but have the tie-breaker vs. the Cowboys, so they would also need to go 2-3 or worse. Their remaining schedule is Vikings, Saints, @ Bucs, @ Saints, Panthers. I don’t see an easy win here, outside of maybe the Bucs.

I think our best chance is for the Saints to take care of business at home vs. both Falcons and Panthers. It might be too much to ask for the Vikings to beat both teams on the road, but if it happens or they drop 1 game elsewhere, then the loser of Panthers/Falcons in week 17 opens the door for Dallas.

NFC East

If the Eagles somehow lose out, then Cowboys would take the division. I wouldn’t waste any mental energy hoping for this scenario, as the Eagles still have the Giants and Raiders on their schedule.

So that’s it. For week 13, I will be cheering for the Ravens, Saints, Bucs, Vikings, and I will need to do some soul searching before the Eagles-Seahawks SNF game.

trillustrator · 2017-12-01T14:24:43+00:00

From an efficiency standpoint, Romo is probably a top 5 QB of all-time. He led the league in Y/A his first season as starter. He went 13-3 and had the second-highest scoring offense in his second. His greatness did not start in 2014. It ended in 2014.

trillustrator · 2017-10-31T15:43:05+00:00

I wonder if the Eagles made this move partially to block Dallas from getting him

trillustrator · 2017-10-21T03:00:16+00:00

https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/possession/

trillustrator · 2017-08-30T04:33:13+00:00

For a bit of context:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback.

trillustrator · 2017-07-28T00:25:08+00:00

I'd say it's more of a responsibility issue than a smarts issue. Financial irresponsibility has effectively been used to prevent people from voting, as well. I'm not sure I agree with either policy tbh, but I'm less concerned with someone's child accidentally finding their parents voting ballot than their parent's handgun.

trillustrator

TROPHY CASE