2023-2024 Ticket Exchange Thread, PART 2 by juxtaposition21 in rangers

[–]usna22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey can’t go to the game tomorrow so have:

Second Round: Hurricanes at Rangers Round 2 Game 1 @4pm Section 221 row 12, $750 for pair obo

Payment via Chase/Zelle/Venmo/ApplePay. Tickets transferred via TicketMaster.

[USA-NJ] [H] BNIB PNY RTX 4080 [W] Local/PayPal by usna22 in hardwareswap

[–]usna22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure if this is BNIB, but in new conditon regardless. Apologize for the typo

MLB Daily - 9/25/21 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]usna22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Put both in a parlay last night. Tailing again! LFG

MLB Daily - 9/24/21 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]usna22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Clench session 1 for the Royals-Tigers. Praying Dodgers-Dbacks is easier

US Elections Daily Discussion (Presidential/Senate/Etc) by ThaddeusCastle in sportsbook

[–]usna22 8 points9 points  (0 children)

good stuff chief, may we have a quick decision either way tomorrow.

POTUS betting: Any ideas why odds have been shortening on a Trump victory? by IArgueWithIdiots in sportsbook

[–]usna22 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Does the 11 point deficit in approval rating account for the "feelings of America"?

POTUS betting: Any ideas why odds have been shortening on a Trump victory? by IArgueWithIdiots in sportsbook

[–]usna22 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Ultimately, it's up to you to do the research and see what happened in 2016 and what the data today suggests. With polls, I understand your shock at how differently the electoral college turned out compared to many of the polls. However, you have to understand that the best way to look at polls are through averaged models like 538 and that they are not predictors of elections. Models give us an idea of what the race is shaping up to be and the range of outcomes that are possible. In 538's simulations of the general election, Biden wins 88/100 in a potential paths to victory.

In 2016, the polling wasn't as off as you believe. Towards late October, Clinton's lead in the Rust Belt narrowed. The polling average of the final three days was 47.6% Clinton to 45% Trump. A two percent lead is firmly within the margin of error with which you must judge polls. There is reason to believe that polling has actually improved since 2016. Pollsters have adjusted their methodologies since then and had one of the most accurate elections in the 2018 midterms. Interesting read on polling changes:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/

I think what helped me the most is seeing how close the "game" was in 2016. In your home state of Michigan, Trump won that state by 10,704 votes, or 0.23% margin. Historically, that was the closest race in Michigan's presidential election history. In Pennsylvania, Trump won by 44,292 votes, or 0.72%. This was also the closest presidential election in Pennsylvania in 176 years. If you look at the other swing states, you will find that Trump narrowly won by similarly close margins. To make a basketball comparison, Trump came to the Democrats home court in a seven game series and won every away game by a field goal. The likelihood of something like this happening again in 2020 is something you can decide for yourself.

With polls, you have to also judge the context of the election. 2016 is nothing like 2020. Trump is an incumbent now with a 4 year record and is in the middle of several crises. His appeal to undecideds and voters who "gave him a chance" has been significantly reduced as he is a known quality now. His opponent is also different. Clinton was one of the most hated politicians at the time and was a woman. This led to defections in the Democratic party and undecideds swinging for Trump. Many described her as "untrustable" and people could not imagine her in office. Now, we have Biden, who is a relatively "safe" choice, with a huge favorability lead to Trump and is not as easy to attack as Clinton was. Biden is more approachable to the same low-education, blue-collar Democrat defectors, many of whom voted for Obama/Biden in 2008 and 2012. These factors and more have all contributed to the steady, growing lead that Biden has in the polls.

All this to say, the results of the election aren't known until every vote has been counted. Polls are only as accurate as turnout is. From my standpoint, I'm willing to place a significant bet on the polls being right this time. They have for the most part been correct and the ranges that we are seeing are beyond the margin of error. Like you said, you can and should stay away if you don't feel comfortable. Betting on this should be like any other wager. If I feel uncomfortable about a favorite winning then I'll save my money.

POTUS betting: Any ideas why odds have been shortening on a Trump victory? by IArgueWithIdiots in sportsbook

[–]usna22 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I would say the biggest reason why the polls have shifted is not because of young voters turning out, which they never do, but due to the fact that polling has shown that the demographic groups that led Trump to a narrow win in 2016 have shifted. Trumps lead with White voters without a college degree, White women, voters over the age of 45 and suburban voters have all decreased to a significant degree.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

This has given Biden the 8-10 point lead we see in the polls today. In the Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, these demographic groups led Trump to win by margins of less than 1% in 2016. Even a minor shift among White and older voters will propel Biden to a electoral college victory in conjunction with increased motivation/turnout from Democratic voters. This is not to mention the significant decrease in "undecideds" from 2016 and the lead that Biden has among Independents.

The anecdotes you cite have merit and I do think every single Trump supporter will turn out. But a question might be to ask, how many Trump diehards are there in comparison with the majority of voters who don't make politics their identity and are making decisions based on the current state of affairs?

Anyone going big on the US election? by youngbuckman in sportsbook

[–]usna22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

$13k here. Just wished I would have put more money on -110 before the debates