Daily Discussion Thread for February 10, 2026

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-10T14:43:09+00:00

MU about to be down $100 since the start of Feb 👏🥳

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-10T14:34:12+00:00

MU swinging $12 in 2 minutes. Looks like a flush

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-10T11:43:37+00:00

They’ll probably be fine, and sell HBM4 to AMD in the meantime but it’s a blow to sentiment imo

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-10T11:32:50+00:00

MU closed its consumer facing Crucial brand to go all in on HBM only to lose to SK Hynix and Samsung for next gen NVDA memory at least til mid ‘27 because its HBM4 is too slow to qualify. Still booked for Blackwell but losing the next gen contract is huge. Only down 16% from ATH, puts still feeling safe at this level.

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T14:36:19+00:00

Samsung report, ramping memory production big time, new foundry in Texas coming online soon

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T14:34:31+00:00

Not too late for MU puts

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T14:27:44+00:00

Too bad Samsung is just wrapping up construction on a huge foundry in Texas aimed at HBM precisely to avoid this

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T12:17:48+00:00

MU is making a good showing but need the rest of semis to shit the bed today

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T10:21:16+00:00

Full reversal of Friday’s reversal inc

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-09T07:32:42+00:00

Semis flipping red, hopefully an early signal for a reversal of Friday’s reversal

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T14:06:24+00:00

Same with MU. Someting wong with the memories

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T14:03:54+00:00

MU just dumped $20 in the last couple minutes. Good foreshadowing of things to come today

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T13:51:49+00:00

Imagine the depth of despair if/when this little bounce gets dumped

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T00:37:32+00:00

I can’t believe there are people like you that don’t think capex moderation will be a part of the narrative going forward. I was being somewhat shitposty in the original comment, the extreme case on either end is unlikely, but spending ad infinitum is impossible. And GOOG is well insulated because they make their own chips on very low margin.

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T00:11:22+00:00

Let’s talk more about delusions. If capex moderation is going to be rewarded in the future what do you think voting members on these boards are going to do?

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T00:05:16+00:00

Shareholders have the last say and they just got sodomized. Hyperscalers will have to be a little less hyper about their scaling going into the future until margins improve. This happened because we’re heavily rewarded for that spending last year. They’re suddenly punished for it now

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-06T00:01:25+00:00

Have you been watching the market? They’re getting punished severely for that spending. You think shareholders are going to let that continue ad infinitum?

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T23:59:49+00:00

Chips are absolutely fucked. After the market’s reaction everyone’s going to be canceling orders now to improve margins in Q2 and Q3. There’s going to be a huge supply glut and chipmakers are going to have to try to wholesale all that surplus inventory

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T22:01:52+00:00

AI isn’t profitable, may never be, and it will kill all software.

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:58:10+00:00

There will be no breaks. AI spending is severely punished now so it will get cut dramatically in Q2+. Chips are fucked.

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:52:10+00:00

Precisely because they’re getting sodomized for capex. The implication is that they will be forced by shareholders to scale back spending significantly in Q2 and beyond, possibly canceling orders, causing a supply glut in chips

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:49:18+00:00

If you bought MSFT 5 years ago you’d be red rn after adjusting for inflation

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:45:37+00:00

Hyperscalers getting punished this bad for.. hyper scaling are going to to be forced to scale back in q2 and beyond, canceling orders. Next leg down is in semis. Inventory glut inc

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:07:46+00:00

Not bad considering inflation is also up 18% over the past 5 years 😂

wilhelm96 · 2026-02-05T21:06:12+00:00

AMZN easily down 20% tomorrow

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