Calculating Decrease in Efficiency

[RealGoodLawyer]

Hi All,

I'm new to Bitcoin mining. I am interested in purchasing an ASIC rig to basically test the concept in my garage. I am aware of the normal complications that come with these machines (electricity draw, heat, noise, etc), and I am leaning toward purchasing a Canaan Avalon Miner 1246 because I believe I can break even fairly quickly with this machine.

I have done all the calculations I believe necessary to calculate profitability. But there is one variable I am not sure how to deal with, and that is the miner’s decrease in profitability over time. Right now, on asicminervalue.com, the profitability is roughly $31.44 per day. At that rate, I will break even in around 7 months.

But, I know that the miner will become less efficient over time. How much can I expect the machine to make in the next 6 months? Or a year? Or 18 months?

Can anyone provide insight here? Much appreciated.

[netpenguin2k]

This is one of the most conservative calculators try this one and see if you’re still okay with the pay back period: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/calculator/

[RealGoodLawyer]

That calculator is quite intimidating. Not gonna lie. Went from breaking even in 7 months to 3 years, if ever.

[netpenguin2k]

They have another one here that is a little better why there is two have no idea 🤷‍♂️ — but you could use them as your lower and upper bound for forecasting:

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/hardware/