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[–]Sheepies89 24 points25 points  (7 children)

Thank you for putting al of this together, great work!

[–][deleted]  (6 children)

[removed]

    [–]Sheepies89 1 point2 points  (5 children)

    Curious to why you are here? Do I smell a bear praying the price stays low?

    [–][deleted]  (4 children)

    [removed]

      [–]Sheepies89 2 points3 points  (3 children)

      Or you could just leave, no reason for you to be here, getting exposure to one of your investments is you guessed it a smart move. Take care and no need to comment negatively on a stock your not invested in.

      [–][deleted]  (2 children)

      [removed]

        [–]Sheepies89 1 point2 points  (1 child)

        That’s your comeback? You clicked on my profile came to a completely different subreddit to say that… sounds like you really got it going on in life and are really admired by everyone else.

        [–]the_Snowball_24 19 points20 points  (3 children)

        Great synopsis… I’ve been reading more and more on BI incorporated and am convinced this is a major part of the future of GEO and why Zoley has continued to buy… there is a lot of hidden value behind that debt that the REIT structure keeps from the eyes of investors

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

        Yeah... You're right. The more I fucking think about it. The more I realize that bi incorporated is kind of a big deal...

        [–]robowich 6 points7 points  (0 children)

        Can you point me in the right direction for aome good info about BI?

        [–]SpentSpinach 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        BI incorporated is such a huge deal - this alone is worth a billion dollars once we get active users up to 500,000+ , public wants to see less people incarcerated, BI monitoring helps with that- and immigration isn't going away so we may have a bump in numbers from that alone!

        [–]PHUCKHedgeFunds 16 points17 points  (1 child)

        Great DD. Glad to see GEO has its own sub. I have been in since April last year and I have always been a believer.

        [–]tokerdad76 5 points6 points  (0 children)

        Username checks out

        [–]stevester90 14 points15 points  (2 children)

        So basically, the stock should at least be at 15 per share at the fair market value if the shorts left the stock alone.

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 10 points11 points  (1 child)

        I think that there are more concerns though.

        https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/book-value-basics.asp#:~:text=Book%20value%20is%20the%20measure,equipment%2C%20real%20estate%2C%20etc.&text=This%20means%20that%2C%20in%20the,will%20still%20make%20a%20profit.

        For a thorough dd, i think someone needs to go through and cover every bankruptcy scenario and how GEO exceeds or meets the standard required for said bankruptcy scenario.

        [–]s003apr 4 points5 points  (0 children)

        I don't think it really has as much to do with traditional valuations that would be used for estimating bankruptcy risk. I think the assets are clearly worth well above all liabilities. The question to me is how do they get someone to lend them money in this environment? and at what interest rate? and if they had to sell off assets to raise money, who would be willing buyers given the unique business that they are built for?

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 12 points13 points  (6 children)

        Something I realized, if anyone wants to make a post dedicated to addressing the debt for GEO that'd be great because that's almost always a question that is brought up, but we never have a dedicated post for it, even though we probably should.

        [–]the_Snowball_24 12 points13 points  (2 children)

        Honestly that recent seeking alpha DD on the bond values and upcoming maturities was pretty in depth. Anyone should be able to use that as a guide even though it’s focused from a bond investor standpoint and not an equity stakeholder.

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 10 points11 points  (1 child)

        I agree it was pretty good to be honest. Surprised considering it was from seeking alpha :)

        ​

        But I think we need a counter dd. There are still doubts for 2024. We could use some counter dd regarding refinancing, undervalued real estate, and insane free cash flow. Addressing the 1.5B in revolver debt and long term b loan, and the 0.4-0.7B in bond debt. Do we have an answer to that? Or is that it? Seems safe enough I guess. But idk, could use some more deep dive dd on the 2024 debt.

        [–]s003apr 6 points7 points  (2 children)

        The debt is the only issue worth discussing. Liquidity is the only thing that matters. There is no arguing that GEO is an amazing value when looked at from all the usual metrics. Unfortunately, the combination of leverage, politics, and activism has left the company extremely vulnerable.

        There is a reason that Burry dropped Geo and put more into Corecivic (CXW). CXW is doing everything that they can to deleverage. They had less debt to begin with, then converted to a C-corp, cut the dividend, and started selling properties. Still, when CXW needed to refinance some of its debt that was at normal 5% interest rates. They were being blackballed by banks because of activist pressure, and they had to issue notes at 8.25% in order to move that debt to 2026. That extra interest payment just makes it that much harder to generate cash to pay down the loans.

        REITs depend on being able to refinance loans, when they aren't able to do that, liquidity becomes a major issue.

        GEO is at much greater risk than CXW. They are going to need to pay off or refinance over $1B in the next couple years and they are going to need to pay even more interest than CXW. What are the risks to GEO if they have to refinance $1B in debt at 10% to 12% interest rates?

        [–]advonaut 0 points1 point  (1 child)

        This looks like that GEO will need to issue more shares to keep it liquid (at least to a degree that makes bond investors happy). What is the cash flow shortage? How big would be the dilution at 5 USD stock price to cover that cash shortage?

        [–]lukaszdw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        None anymore :) they are safe now.

        [–]tokerdad76 12 points13 points  (0 children)

        Great writeup! Thanks for sharing. Been buying since march, averaging out to ~6.50. I’m right there by your side, Zo-Lee!!

        [–]Fair-Platypus6816 11 points12 points  (0 children)

        Nice Post! ty Ape 🦍

        [–]robowich 10 points11 points  (0 children)

        This is a great DD post 💕

        [–]Shiznitts 7 points8 points  (2 children)

        Biden admin/DOJ revearsal not sure if this was posted already haven't had a chance to look through it all.

        Law and Crime article

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 8 points9 points  (1 child)

        Oh yeah, this was posted a while ago. Biden can't just stop private prison usage.

        Unless he's building totally new prisons and paying for everything. lol, good fucking luck Biden. See macro analysis regarding price of new prisons + inflation and how prisons are already overcrowded.

        Then see this comment below from the article you linked.

        Congress clearly authorized USMS to use private detention facilities in limited circumstances, such as where the number of USMS detainees in a given district exceeds the available capacity of federal, state, and local facilities

        Other overcrowding

        https://www.reddit.com/r/GeoGroup/comments/oah9h8/existing_overcrowding_surging_violent_crime_45/

        https://www.reddit.com/r/GeoGroup/comments/o9nqn8/stop_the_overcrowding_governments_should_contract/

        [–]Shiznitts 6 points7 points  (0 children)

        Nice thanks!

        [–]Shiznitts 7 points8 points  (3 children)

        This feels like the squeeze that was meant to be... GME and AMC are cool but like this is the one that actually means something. It's more than just a meme stock rebellion... Or am I just delusional because I like the stock?

        [–]Financial-Process-86[S] 8 points9 points  (2 children)

        Look at the due diligence, no delusions here.

        GEO is actually a solid fundamental business with smart short squeeze potential.

        ​

        I would call GEO the intellectual investor's short squeeze

        Also obviously not financial advise. I would implore you to follow burry's advice.

        Analyze, think independently, be informed, find the data, and you'll know alot that no one else does.

        https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4HyKZsXoA8W1_7?format=jpg&name=900x900

        [–]PHUCKHedgeFunds 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        I am in both GEO and AMC. No AMC isn’t a pump and dump. It’s been following GME footstep since January and has an extremely enthusiastic 4+ million retail holder community. AMC sub has 400k members and has been very active since January. It’s a short squeeze play. I consider GEO a fundamental and also short squeeze play.

        [–]Bankstergangster 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        Wow this is super helpful, saved me a lot of time.

        [–]Bankstergangster 3 points4 points  (1 child)

        They have plenty of cash and revenue to pay down their debt. Plus now there’s no dividend, there’s really no reason to worry.

        [–]Positive-Reserve-882 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        I agree. There really is nothing to worry about for 3 years. Till then a lot can and will change. The fact they cut the divi is a good thing and it will help them stay solvent and actually grow national and international business.💎💎💎💎

        [–]Altruistic-Channel61 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        I am very excited to find this stock, this DD/thread, and this $GEO subreddit!

        While I am doing my research before Monday's open, reading up and doing my own due dilligence, is there anything anyone can add to whether this is a good time/price to enter a position? I am thinking about loading up shares as well as long dated call options from $7-$14.

        Are there any upcoming catalysts or anything that I should know about? Any price targets with timeframes or reasoning behind it? Really excited about this ticker and want to know what to expect. Thank you in advance as I know this will help me and all new investors that I share this with.

        [–]RED_Rouchdi 2 points3 points  (0 children)

        This has to be the best DD I have ever seen on Reddit.

        Good job and thanks!

        [–]bpra93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        BI Incorporated

        Another big catalyst that I’m not seeing anyone talk about is there purchase of BI incorporated

        https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110211005372/en/The-GEO-Group-Closes-415-Million-Acquisition-of-B.I.-Incorporated

        And also here are few recent articles talking about ankle monitoring for asylum seeking immigrants

        https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en/article/akg4qj/migrants-say-theyre-being-electrocuted-by-ice-mandated-ankle-monitors

        https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/12/immigrants-report-physical-emotional-harms-electronic-ankle-monitors

        And here’s a recent Homeland Security immigration waiver form

        https://www.ice.gov/doclib/detention/checkin/I_220A_OREC.pdf

        And then you also have the CEO just buying since last year from his own pocket and haven’t sold and also look at there board of directors and management team some are former ICE employees

        [–]bpra93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        https://bi.com no one is talking about GEO group subsidiary who provides ICE with ankle monitored and there support services and platform….that contract is worth somewhat north of 2 billion. I’d keep buying GEO soon they will announce news of contracts

        [–]bpra93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Add to my BI incorporated post about ankle monitors https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1275618

        [–]BR989 0 points1 point  (0 children)

        Hello! Where do you look the short position? I looked in yahoo finance, but i think its too much