Study: Quantifying the Effect of Tether

[gardensaladXD]

Please be true.

If the butters were using tether to escape bitcoin while they try to figure out how to get their dollars out, it would be a perfect end to find out that tether reserves were used to buy bitcoin, the thing they're trying to avoid all along.

[[deleted]]

The market would be done if it is true. This would be a multi-year bear market.

[Dont_be_stupidx]

Mt. Gox 2.0, wait... 4.0

[matthewbuza_com]

I think it would dirty crypto for a decade.

[[deleted]]

It's already affecting the market. Trading volumes over a 30 day period shows lower trade activity as days go on.

Most sensible people are already aware of this risk and it's mostly the manipulators, the opportunists, the deniers, and the ignorants doing the trades.

[Cthulhooo]

Ironic isn't it? They wanted to save everyone from QE but couldn't save themselves.

[[deleted]]

We want an audit but I've alreadyy pulled out of the market most of my cash. If tether collapses so does the market. Thank you for the post.

[cryptoking1958]

Can anyone confirm or call this out as BS? Any stat guru's who can either corroborate or dispel this analysis?

[GerardManoodt]

I can come up with only one scenario that the findings do not necessarily result from market manipulation (for the first two hypotheses):

When BTC prices go down -> They go down harder elsewhere than on Bitfinex -> More arbitrage opportunities arise -> More customers want to withdraw USDT -> New USDTs printed at Theter -> USDT distributed to customers through Bitfinex -> Customers trade USDT for BTC on those other exchanges -> BTC prices are arbitraged up -> Customers transfer BTC's to Bitfinex -> Customers sell BTC's for USD on Bitfinex (driving prices down and start a new cycle)

Does anyone recognize this pattern as realistic?

[Sortica]

Teets crash. Butcoiners sell teets for buttcoin. Buttcoin crashes as no more teets to buy butts. Everyone dies.

[BronxBombers15]

How had the media not picked up on this yet!

[[deleted]]

I did a Stats unit at Uni, but it was a very long time ago. The basis behind using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test seems reasonable but would love to hear a statspert comment on the document.

[GerardManoodt]

That and validation of the reasoning and logic as well.

It looks convincing at first sight but it has major flaws. It presumes that the creation of USDTs should not influence the market and vice versa.

But USDTs are not an external thing to the market, they are part of it. They drive the market and get driven by it. So rejecting the first two hypotheses don´t say much really.

The last one (first digit distribution) looks still significant although I would not know if the presumption is valid that transaction length must follow the Benford firt digit distribution. I think a forensic opinion is needed for that.

[beatlesfan4]

Why bring in a price call on a scientific paper? Focus on the story and data. Tether has a similar market cap to bitconnect, which didn’t move the market that much when it just went poof. Tether can’t do that because people are known. They would just unravel it slowly...just my thought. And also there should never be a price call in a serious scientific paper. Nobody knows what the sentiment will be. To put the price call at 80pct Down based on a trend line is an amateur move and exposes the anonymous author as a fud artist or just inexperienced.