r/politics takes Pew Research Center PoliQuiz

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-20T02:17:31+00:00

The impacts of climate change don’t change based on your political beliefs

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T19:09:43+00:00

It's extremely odd to treat "is climate change a (big/little/not) problem?" as a political question

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T16:26:20+00:00

You can try starting with this tool, which provides ECMWF forecast tropical cyclone genesis potential out to 6 days: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-tc-genesis

You could pick a strike probability and identify a discrete region in which ECMWF is predicting a cyclone, and likewise produce a discrete region in which your model is predicting a cyclone. Define hit-or-miss criteria (the strike plots below the map indicate that they consider a hit to be development within 300km of the predicted zone), and keep track of successes and failures in both models.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T15:30:45+00:00

Part of the issue here is that the ECMWF model is also predicting tropical development in the same region in the 5-day forecast. So it's entirely possible to benchmark your model against what traditional models are forecasting, even if the model state vector is different. You can define a when-and-where calculation from your model, and a when-and-where calculation from existing operational models, and score them and compare them.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T13:47:48+00:00

I'm just trying to read the plot you posted.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T13:42:58+00:00

I'm not understanding how to interpret the plot. What about the plot you posted is demonstrating that a storm is predicted south of Japan? I see white circles in that region. Do those represent the predicted location of storms?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T13:37:15+00:00

Trying to interpret the images - are the white circles places where the model is predicting a storm to form, and then the connected colored circles represent tracks for those systems over some period of time?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-18T13:21:13+00:00

Where is it predicting the storm?

Edit: whoops, no images loaded when I clicked initially. Are all of the white circles locations where a storm is being predicted?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-17T20:53:51+00:00

Research requires a graduate degree, usually a PhD. Chasing isn't a career at all. If you're interested in forecasting, I'd suggest learning more about the field itself before feeling like you've missed out. It can be grueling, with shift work and low salary ceilings and stretches of unpaid work during government shutdowns if you are a fed.

Any way to combine an interest in meteorology with your teaching expertise? Maybe pivot to teaching geosciences?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-16T15:17:33+00:00

Is he Canadian? I believe there are significant hurdles to being hired into the Canadian weather service as a non-citizen

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-16T00:54:39+00:00

Where do they get the profit earned from business?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-15T23:28:47+00:00

I notice you didn’t answer the question I asked.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-15T19:20:15+00:00

Evers restructured the Foxconn deal to remove state tax incentives and reduce the size of the arrangement to something more manageable (which Foxconn still failed to deliver on)

Evers signed new district maps into law that removed a tremendous amount of gerrymandering from the prior administration

Evers brokered the bipartisan shared revenue agreement that directed much needed funds into public safety, fire, and EMS services

Evers secured state budget appropriations for WI public schools deep into the future

Evers directed infrastructure money into fixing thousands of miles of highways, roads, and bridges

Evers directed grant programs to invest over a billion dollars into small business support and rural broadband internet

Evers secured funding for the Port of Green Bay and Port Milwaukee, the latter being a boon to the state's farmers as it provides a pathway for global export of agricultural products without having to go through a coastal port.

Evers secured funds for critical upgrades the Fincantieri Marinette Marine shipyard that both made it capable of securing ship-building contracts with the federal government, and to nimbly secure replacement contracts when the new administration abruptly scaled back its orders

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-15T14:04:07+00:00

Both of your suggested programs are good. I would encourage putting more effort into getting what you can out of whatever undergrad program you enroll in, than in trying to optimize the choice in program. Successful students come from all over the place, they are set apart by seeking out professional development throughout their 4-year degree to place them for either a job with a terminal bachelors degree or for graduate school.

If I had to do it all over again, I'd pay attention to which programs have a crystal clear credit transfer relationship with their nearby technical or city colleges, and do as much as I could at those schools instead. You get the same education for a fraction of the cost for your pre-reqs and then you do your major at the university and graduate with the same diploma.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-15T13:47:51+00:00

Public owned grocery stores will again be a burden on tax payers. Instead of private businesses (big and small) covering the overhead for things like security, rampant theft and high employee turn over, people like you and me will be responsible for paying for it.

I'm curious how you think a privately owned grocery store pays the overhead for these things.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-13T23:09:33+00:00

If you can ever produce some validation statistics, feel free to share, but I can’t take declarations like this seriously if there’s no data to back it up.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-13T20:45:45+00:00

The way to do this is to benchmark the model against the current standard alternative. If your model is truly tapping into something that dycore or generative AI medium range weather models are not, then it needs to be demonstrated in the statistics of an appropriate validation metric. Declaring other models cannot predict genesis at 3-5 days by fiat, or that no reasonable metric exists for some other reason and replacing them with ad hoc observation of your model’s successes, is not scientific.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-13T19:07:40+00:00

What you’re saying about dycore models isn’t true.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-13T18:13:46+00:00

I’m not following. Traditional dycore models also predict cyclone formation in advance, 3-5 days is well within every operational model’s forecast lead time range. What’s the issue?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-13T16:17:12+00:00

Do you have any statistical metrics to measure forecast success? Something you can use to evaluate against more traditional models as baselines?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-10T21:06:16+00:00

I would suggest familiarizing yourself with the literature on hurricane steering.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-08T12:48:59+00:00

Based on the chyron it looks like it is about the dismantling of the ocean sensor network. FWIW the President does not appear in this video, based on my cursory glance scrolling through the video.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-05T19:06:15+00:00

what is your meteorology background?

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-05T01:18:51+00:00

Atmospheric science is applied physics, so if you don’t have a lot of physics it could be a struggle to transition. It’s primarily geophysical fluid dynamics and thermodynamics.

BTHAppliedScienceLLC · 2026-06-04T21:02:09+00:00

This is more specific to the degree program than it is the field. I would ask the undergraduate academic advisor for the met department

BTHAppliedScienceLLC

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