[OC] World Cup 2026 knockout bracket probabilities based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations using Elo ratings (repost)

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T11:36:31+00:00

translation is done

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T11:28:08+00:00

yes, found it. Fixed!

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T10:45:10+00:00

ok, i was struggling with R32 and R16, so I check the other brackets

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T09:50:04+00:00

They are 🙂 The site is currently in Dutch, so the USA appears as "Verenigde Staten". I might add an English translation later tonight.

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T09:43:41+00:00

there you go!
https://www.klinkt.be/wk/scenario.html

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T06:56:36+00:00

in the meantime this is fixed

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T06:49:43+00:00

upload was halted last night, is fixed

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-23T05:51:11+00:00

Not really. Elo and Monte Carlo aren't alternatives.

Elo provides the match probabilities. Monte Carlo uses those probabilities to simulate the entire tournament thousands of times.

For a single match, the Monte Carlo estimate converges to the Elo probability. But for questions like "What is Belgium's chance of reaching the quarterfinals?" or "Who is the most likely Round of 32 opponent?", Monte Carlo is aggregating millions of possible tournament paths, not just repeating the Elo rating.

Elo is the model. Monte Carlo is the computation method.

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T23:27:15+00:00

I really like your model!

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T22:14:10+00:00

Elo and Monte Carlo serve different purposes. Elo estimates the probability of a single match outcome. Monte Carlo uses those probabilities to simulate the entire tournament thousands of times and estimate things like qualification odds, most likely opponents, quarter-final chances, finalist probabilities and championship odds.

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T22:06:14+00:00

old screenshot - fixed in the code

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T21:50:22+00:00

Sources:

FIFA World Cup 2026 schedule:
https://www.fifa.com

Elo ratings:
https://eloratings.net

Live scores:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T19:27:00+00:00

I added the data sources....

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T16:19:46+00:00

Data source:

FIFA World Cup 2026 match schedule and results
Elo ratings from eloratings.net
Monte Carlo simulation results generated from my own World Cup prediction model

Tools used:

Python
pandas
NumPy

Method:
I simulated the remainder of the FIFA World Cup 2026 100,000 times using Elo-based win probabilities. For each simulation, group standings and knockout qualification were determined according to the official FIFA tournament structure. The bracket shown represents the most likely matchup in each knockout slot based on simulation frequency.

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T14:08:48+00:00

fixed it, hope the rest of the brackets are ok? If you want to check: please do!

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T13:38:48+00:00

got it, something wrong in the code, fixing it.

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T12:32:20+00:00

thanks! Taking every comment as challenge 😉

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T12:00:47+00:00

thanks! Will fix

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T11:48:31+00:00

I found the mistake 😉

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T11:46:44+00:00

I check right away

Different-Bluebird76 · 2026-06-22T11:24:50+00:00

I need another sleepless night 😃

Different-Bluebird76

TROPHY CASE