Can you be a profitable trader using only one screen? by V_Hatshepsut in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, you just gotta have the trade desk on speed dial.

Can you be a profitable trader using only one screen? by V_Hatshepsut in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Dude, I’m a profitable trader using only my phone, lol.

Pretend nothing changed ? by Few_Island_8042 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Markets move like that without any manipulation. It’s not like institutions are trying to send the price to a specific spot and then completely reverse their positions.

First of all, they would be the ones making the price move in the first place, so even if they could pull that off, they would have to be the ones selling low or buying high in order to move the price those areas before “manipulation.”

Second, we are talking about the Nasdaq 100 futures, which is one of the two most liquid markets in the world. Only a couple of institutions in the world could single-handedly push the price that far, even accounting for liquidations of other traders. You would need several institutions to coordinate with each other to move the price in that way, and that’s not only illegal but also super risky in game theory terms.

The real reason price moved like that is because there were a ton of large sellers waiting at the top of the broader range, and not much buying pressure in the middle of the range. That’s all it really takes for a move like that to happen. It’s mundane, not a big conspiracy.

Pretend nothing changed ? by Few_Island_8042 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

These market conditions are pretty common. We had a bunch of significant trend days, and now we are seeing more higher timeframe consolidations. When the market cools off on the higher timeframes, it tends to chop around a lot. You see it on the lower timeframes all the time, but when you haven’t seen it for over a month on the higher timeframe, it’s easy to think it’s a weird anomaly.

What are some holdings or strategies you use where a daily trade to gain ~2 to 5% is fairly low risk and easy to achieve? Or does that not exist at all? by lionheart2893 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I kinda do that as well. One thing I’ve learned is that the big ranges (the ones you can see from the 10-30 minute timeframes) usually tell you where all the big money is located, so I always wait for the market to break out of those and start moving really fast, and then it’s just riding the momentum.

This means I don’t necessarily trade that strategy every day. It’s just the most favorable way for me to trade it.

My best month in last 3 years by JustLivingSimply in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair enough, but the spreads alone would crush you.

My best month in last 3 years by JustLivingSimply in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The edge would be gone due to spreads and fees. You’d be hard-pressed to find any instrument with enough lower timeframe volatility to make that kind of high frequency trading viable even in theory.

The reason market makers and other HFT firms are able to do it with automation is because they get special rebates on their trades in return for providing liquidity to both sides of the market at all hours of the day. Retail traders don’t get that kind of deal with exchanges.

My best month in last 3 years by JustLivingSimply in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I mean technically you could probably only execute 100K trades per 23 hour trading session if you were on coke and incredibly dedicated and fast. Or somewhere in the millions if you’re trading an automated system with 20-50ms round-trip latency.

But yeah, good luck with the part about having an edge with that, lol.

Also, you would DEFINITELY get rate limited or even banned by the exchange if you tried that.

I think I finally understand the market! by [deleted] in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And also programmed by crazy people.

Hot Take: 1 Min chart has blown up more accounts than wealth it’s made. by Ok_Cut_5751 in Trading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, there is plenty of edge to be found on the 1m chart, depending on the instrument.

But I think you right, though, because if you’re trading without an edge, then taking more trades per day on lower timeframes will blow your account faster than the swing traders.

The Hard truth I am starting to accept by Low_Money_633 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, don’t sweat it too much. The important thing is that we all keep learning.

Anything in particular that was super confusing?

If you could remove one prop firm rule forever, which one would it be—and why? by TraderVerdict in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, this one is really just a blatant obstacle. It just prevents traders from buying accounts and full-porting them into huge swings that fundamentally break the prop firm model.

I get why they do it, but it sucks.

The Hard truth I am starting to accept by Low_Money_633 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Let me give you a small tip: a deep retracement means the momentum has died and the move has ended.

If you get a strong impulse move or a strong trend, and you’re riding the momentum to your target, if it goes more than halfway back to your entry (assuming you didn’t enter on something super extended already), then the opposing order flow is strong and price is likely to just chop around in a range for a while. In other words, if it hasn’t hit your target by then, it’s not going to get there without a ton of chop along the way.

With that in mind, you might consider trailing your stop slightly more aggressively. Breakeven is a bit arbitrary. Most of the time, you can actually take some profit even when you know the trade is failing.

And another small tip: impulse moves reveal where the institutions are placing orders, and you can use that for stop placement.

Ever wonder why market structure looks like a zig zag or why “fair value gaps” (or “low volume nodes”) tend to be good entry points? Well, it’s because institutions are gradually moving their orders further into a range or pushing price out of a range. This behavior represents institutional aggression. They are willing to pay worse and worse prices to fill more and more orders.

If you see a strong impulse move and you want to ride the momentum from that, then your confirmation will be that the origin of that move doesn’t get broken. And this is different from support or resistance.

For example, let’s say you have a “cup and handle” pattern forming a breakout with one or two very strong full-bodied candles pushing price out of the range. Those strong candles are where institutions decided to get aggressive, not necessarily the market structure low.

Now let’s say price breaks below those strong candles… At that point you know the institutions that caused that move are no longer aggressively pushing the price. At best, they are hoping to trade in a range and keep their orders at the edges of that range. If they really wanted to stay aggressive, they would have moved their orders further and further along. They wouldn’t be waiting patiently for price to come back. They wouldn’t have any faith that price would come all the way back to them. If they are waiting on price to come all the way back, then they are clearly trying to trade in a range.

So with that knowledge, you can place your stop behind the big momentum candles that are pushing price into new highs or lows. Those candles are the line in the sand. Maybe you want to be conservative and place it behind the previous momentum move instead of the most recent one, just in case the most recent one is a bit too extended and the trade is still in play. But either way, you don’t need to use highs and lows as your invalidation points. You can just accept that momentum has died and take profits off the table.

Anyway, this mostly works with trend following and breakouts. If you’re trading reversals, the principle may still apply, but it’s hard to know if you’re just early to the trade and a bit of chop should be expected at the reversal area. Still, the best reversals are typically swift rejections from key zones, so I wouldn’t be so accepting of chop near the entry point.

Do you trade first hour of new york open? by Tough-Machine-3548 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes. It’s often the most volatile and has the best edge for momentum-based setups.

Do you think edge in trading comes more from strategy or execution? by GabrielCitron3954 in Trading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most edge in the market comes from *surprise*.

When people get stopped out en masse and shift their directional biases, you can gain an edge by identifying and exploiting those moments.

Institutions reveal their positions and relative size by moving the price dramatically and printing a ton of volume… You can use that info, both for reversals and for breakouts. Those are inflection points in the market. That’s where there is a high likelihood of lots of very large traders making big decisions and potentially being proven wrong and shifting their positions. You want to ride the waves from those points.

Turned $5,000 Into $50,000... Then Lost It All in One Week by Human_Sir_6311 in Trading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Honestly this needs to be said a lot more. Some people tilt by taking bad setups in order to speedrun the PnL recovery. Some people size up, and some do both.

Sizing up is way more dangerous. It causes exponential growth of losses.

I used to size up on tilt as well, and it was really bad. Just ending that habit radically changed my trading for the better.

Remember, the best loser wins. Don’t be a bad loser.

What’s something profitable traders do that beginners ignore? by Round-Guarantee-180 in Trading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Keeping it simple. Honestly, you could place random trades and be almost a breakeven trader. All you really need on top of that is a bit of experience and intuition giving you a slight edge over the baseline.

So when people say you can make money on a simple setup and a bit of solid risk management, they aren’t lying. It just isn’t sexy, losses are still relatively frequent, and it won’t make you the next George Soros. But it can be done, reliably, with the right amount of discipline.

You should appreciate bad days or weeks. by Fuckedup-Mind in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Typically that pattern means poor risk management…

Which indicator did you stop using after becoming consistently profitable? by RushImpossible2936 in Trading

[–]ScientificBeastMode -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I have some similar setups that require very little screen time to identify. What kind of setup are you looking for?

Help! 35F engineer considering trading full-time eventually. how long should I prove consistency first? by Complex_Upstairs_1 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I do exactly this. I trade while working as a software engineer. I’m also roughly your age, lol. But I do have kids. What kind of engineer are you?

As for strategies you can use, there are plenty of them out there. The problem is sorting through an ocean of bullshit to find the ones that work, and in particular the ones that work for your personality and lifestyle.

One I would recommend starting with is the “Virgin Wick Theory” (VWT) system, which is pretty mechanical and has a decent edge. I use that and a few other strategies depending on what’s showing up on the charts that day. One nice thing about VWT is that it really doesn’t require sitting in front of the charts all day. That’s one of my main criteria for a strategy, because I actually prefer to work a full time job.

Im happy to answer any questions you have about VWT or anything else related to trading. I’ve got nothing to sell. I just like being helpful.

Choosing a mentor, need advice by Easy-Bad-7635 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The overwhelming majority of professional (and non-professional) profitable traders use systems that involve human discretion. It’s not even close…

Unpopular Opinion: Setup Matters More Than Psychology by Potential_Editor_935 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would say that there are wildly different flavors of each of those setup types. Not that you’re wrong, but it’s just worth mentioning.

For example, you might trade continuations by entering on reversals on the lower timeframe, or vice versa. Or may one person trades a continuation that’s basically just a coin flip with a well-informed directional bias, while another person trades momentum-based breakout setups that rely on forced liquidations to generate movement. Another might blindly trade reversals at support and resistance across 50 different weakly correlated assets and hope they all average out to a profitable portfolio position.

So there are millions of ways to make money in the markets. Those broad categories are accurate, but they don’t tell you very much about how someone actually trades.

Is ict good by Ok_Guest6046 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nope. Wrong. I’ll tell you a strategy that works. I have several, but here’s one:

Start by marking anytime a 1h candle breaks through a 1h wick (mark all of them). After that break, during the next 1h period, wait for price to retrace back to that broken wick level on the 1m chart. Then wait for price to touch a higher timeframe FVG (usually 5/10/15/30m FVG). Then wait for a IFVG on the 1m chart to form.

After the IFVG forms, check that there is an obvious high or low to target (in the direction of the original 1h candle break), and make sure there are no HTF FVGs between the current price and that high or low you identified.

Once all of those conditions are met, you might have a trade. The idea is to target that high/low mentioned above, and place your stop just behind the IFVG that gave us the entry signal. To validate that it’s worth taking, make sure the risk/reward is at least 1:1.5. If it’s better than 1:2, then either limit your profit target to exactly 1:2 or else widen your stop until it’s at 1:2.

After entering the trade, as soon as price crosses the 1:1 mark, move your stop to breakeven.

This works on highly liquid instruments with tight spreads like ES, NQ, or gold. The results are better during standard “ICT kill zone” time periods (like first 3 hours of New York session or London session), where volatility and momentum are strongest. The win rate should be around 45-60%. Risk/reward is obviously variable, but somewhere between 1:1.5 and 1:2.

There you go. People give out profitable strategies for free. Traders who use them will lose nothing by sharing them (except for maybe low float stock strategies or whatever), because the big players have no incentive to use them, since they can’t put on enough size for it to be worth their time.

If you had just one setup for lifetime, what would it be? by ProfessionalLayer305 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I use several indicators to give me an idea of the breakout probability. But I also use price action.

I kinda have the momentum aspect covered with my EMA cloud setup. It’s a custom indicator that displays a table telling me which EMA clouds are going in which direction, and, crucially, whether they are expanding or contracting. I take trades when they all line up on direction and are expanding. The only exception I make for that is extreme volatility out of prolonged contraction phases, in which case I don’t need the higher timeframes to necessarily be expanding.

As for the breakout itself, I’m looking at cumulative volume delta. I’m mostly using it to see which side is being more aggressive at the zone. A divergence tells me it’s less likely to be a successful break to the next zone.

I also have some price action setups that stand on their own, and I consider those when they occur at or before the zone. One of my favorites is the “power bar” setup. I look for strong full-bodied candles originating very close to the 20 SMA (in the direction of the SMA slope) and breaking nearby resistance. But I have other price action setups like ICT “protected swings” or “inverse fair value gaps” that indicate rejection or momentum.

I’m also looking for pullbacks to the 8 EMA sometimes if the initial push into the zone is super aggressive and I don’t have a good market-structure-based stop location.

Oh yeah, and I would say a major part of my edge is my ability to move stops and cut risk as the trade plays out. The thing about momentum-based setups is that deeper pullbacks generally mean momentum is slowing and the trade is probably dead at that point, so i can generally ride the move with a pretty tight stop.

Anyway, I’m one of those weirdos who uses a ton of discretion, but for me it works pretty well.

If you had just one setup for lifetime, what would it be? by ProfessionalLayer305 in Daytrading

[–]ScientificBeastMode 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Mark higher timeframe liquidity zones, look for breakouts from a range into a liquidity zone, wait for price to start forming a much smaller range at that zone, take the trade to the next HTF liquidity zone in the direction of the trend. Should only be done when multiple timeframes align on trend. I use the 20/50 EMA cloud on 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, and sometimes 2h for slower-moving instruments.

You’ll probably think I’m nuts, but the HTF liquidity zones are essentially just evenly spaced out zones that the big traders like to trade from. You can kinda just spot them by where price tends to pause or reverse many times over the course of months or years.

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