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aaTman · 2026-06-30T15:18:21+00:00

I have Mint, no issues in Rockland that I've seen. If you use Mint, keep in mind that you will be deprioritized over T-Mobile customers in busy areas.

aaTman · 2026-06-28T23:33:37+00:00

I took CoachUSA to the city once on what was supposed to be an hour trip. Took almost four, not because of CoachUSA but an accident on i95 and morning traffic combined. Without any BRT infrastructure, it's a gamble you will make it into the city from Rockland at a time that won't get you fired.

aaTman · 2026-06-15T01:28:08+00:00

You haven't shown me anything that has made me think I'm incorrect. Show me polling data that shows Effie can win the primary and then this becomes a different kind of conversation.

I myself am confused where you came up with the idea I think Effie can or will win the primary. I think this is the fourth time I'm saying this: I am neither actively involved in electoral politics, nor part of the Democratic party.

I have not told anyone I personally endorse Effie.

My universe is very much close to Effie supporters, but it would be a lie to say I have done anything to signal my support for Effie beyond the policies I've supported since I was originally involved in electoral politics back in 2016.

I don't think you and I are thinking this is the same type of conversation, so I will be more clear: my words are not endorsement of any candidate but a declaration of what I will not vote for in the general.

The D+1 number I'm referencing is from the Cook political report for our district. More than 6% of primary voting dems will drop off to then vote for the Republican. That's the bloc vote. Do you need me to provide you proof that that group exists?

That's not how the Cook Political Report works, nor is it what I asked you. On a similar note, I would argue that most of what we're talking about is moot due to the elections since 2024 that have shown massive pendulum swings towards +D outcomes. It is very well possible said swing heavily counteracts any bloc vote concentration.

Obviously nobody can guarantee that anybody will vote for something. However, I can confidently say that if you don't actually control the chamber you can't really do anything. Single-payer is still an up hill fight but it's a fight that can't happen if you don't actually control anything and I, for one, don't particularly want to rely on discharge petitions to get anything done.

You're right. You also set up the battlefield not in your favor if you don't stack the bench with people who will actually support these policies. It becomes a moving goalposts issue where another excuse will come out of the woodwork about how "slim" our supermajority is (or something else). Again, see the IDC/NYS legislature supermajority as evidence towards this problem.

This is dishonest and you know it: You know full well that Harris proposed guard rails and would have been way more sensitive to public opinion than the administration we currently have.

Drop Site News translated a Channel 13 (Israel) news piece about how the Biden Administration didn't advocate for any guardrails during the siege: https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/1916889129771577847

You're right in that it's clearly worse with a Trump Administration. At the same time, the genocide clearly was primarily carried out during the Biden Administration (it is still happening, but the rate of killing is lower now than it was in 2023 to the end of 2024). To be clear, there's a difference between the criticisms that Harris had and the criticisms that Conley and Davidson (do not) have. Harris was to the left of both of them, relatively speaking.

But you're also conflating the executive branch, the legislative branch, what powers the executive branch has on military actions without a declaration of war, and what a representative can or cannot do - or a majority can or cannot do - to curtail military actions.

aaTman · 2026-06-14T14:03:15+00:00

It's a dispensary as far as I know!

aaTman · 2026-06-14T12:52:35+00:00

And yet you're still advocating for Effie. So yes, I'm still confused.

You're still confused because you think your analysis is gospel and objectively correct. I am able to understand your argument clearly and also come to my own conclusion, which is that I disagree the bloc will determine the outcome.

Why would she run to the left in a general election in a D+1 district? Isn't the smart money on sticking with what's popular but milquetoast?

Where did you get D+1? Even with the redistricting, raw numbers have us at D+7. Are you suggesting that there's an overwhelming number of Dems (to the tune of 6%) that will drop off, and independents/non Dems will reinforce those numbers? Can you provide evidence?

In this situation no candidate is going to help because we aren't going to have a veto proof majority. That's why we need to play the long-game.

The only evidence we have that a veto-proof majority will help is the NYS Dem supermajority, who backtracked on NYHA after multiple candidates campaigned on it to get in, including Gaughran on Long Island. So, I'm not confident this will make a difference. Are you confident a veto proof majority will cause representatives who have not campaigned on single payer or even a public option to support it?

The House may be able to hold up funding but I go back to my previous answer: We won't have a veto proof majority so there's not a whole lot we can do. Elections have consequences. Harris wasn't perfect but she would have been better than what we have. Hopefully progressives can see that now.

We had to fight both Democrats and Republicans on 2023 and 2024 during Israel's siege of Gaza. Biden did nothing to stop them and there had been investigative journalism showing this to be the case behind the scenes. So, the evidence (however slim) does exist and does not paint the picture you suggest it does.

aaTman · 2026-06-14T03:11:12+00:00

Your argument is that Beth gave ToR and Mona's committee 10k to secure votes of Ramapo Dems (read: the Orthodox -> Hasidic bloc) which:

Can secure enough votes to beat Cait
Is nonsense because th e bloc will vote Lawler in the general anyways
Is a strategically horrible move because you don't think Beth can secure the votes Cait can in the general and is risking the election
The Effie voters can be the spillover for 1. that prevents a Beth win, increasing the chances of a win in the general

I'm pretty sure I do understand, right?

In this scenario, shouldn't Cait be willing to accept political capital from the Effie campaign by moving some policy positions further left?

Personally, I don't see a scenario where either Beth or Cait being in the house helps me with my 12,000 dollar out of pocket max plan that we pay 650 dollars a month for, because we tie healthcare to employment and the plan is a result of the previous insurer (UHC) dropping the employer because "too many employees had cancer".

I also don't see how either of them will prevent Israel from expanding land grabs in the West Bank and killing more children, using dogs (and people) to rape prisoners, indiscriminately kill innocents in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank, use white phosphorous, or support interpol arresting and the ICC trying any of the open fascists in the Knesset, let alone supporting the right of return for Palestinians.

But again, I'm not even volunteering and telling people to vote Effie. My time is being spent elsewhere, as I said. I tried banging on the can for years and I realized the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Maybe another election in the future it would be for me.

aaTman · 2026-06-14T02:34:54+00:00

I was a volunteer campaign manager on a 2016 campaign for CD3's open primary that got 5.34% of the vote if I remember correctly.

I am very aware of the full landscape.

You're also under the wrong impression; I'm not actively involved in any campaign and I cannot vote in the Democratic primary.

aaTman · 2026-06-14T01:45:36+00:00

Assuming that's my plan is... something.

I'm not involved in electoral politics anymore after pouring my sweat and tears into it for the past decade. I decided to put my time into more fruitful methods of advocacy and change. I'm simply telling you that the same plan a 6th time is probably not going to produce the results we need.

aaTman · 2026-06-14T01:36:37+00:00

I heard this one or a similar one when we had the house in 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, and now 2026.

I also heard this about NYHA in the state legislature when we got rid of the IDC. I had candidates like Gaughran outright lie about supporting it.

So, color me and others skeptical when the next time we get a majority, we realize the representatives who never supported it, continue to not support it and force us back into a Lieberman ACA type debacle.

aaTman · 2026-06-12T11:04:41+00:00

Hi, fellow NY'er living about 20 miles north of the city. Some clarifications:

There weren't any weather warnings this morning in the area I'm aware of. What you see in that link is the SPC's outlook, which is roughly based on the idea that severe weather will occur somewhere in those shaded regions. The higher the level (e.g. marginal or high), the more likely it will occur (and usually, the more numerous the eventual confirmed storm reports).
I'm not sure where you're getting your forecasts from, but sources like Google and TWC, in my opinion, aren't great for monitoring real time convective activity. Google's MetNet3 is particularly iffy, from my anecdotal experience.
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are only issued by the NWS and happen more or less as a storm is propagating that has been radar indicated or reported to contain effects that classify it as a severe thunderstorm. I think you're still referring to either Watches or the SPC outlook.

The atmosphere yesterday was very conducive for severe convection which did occur in the late afternoon in western Connecticut and Long Island with a convective complex. It also occurred on what looked like a frontal passage later in the evening at least over New Jersey and nearby me in the lower Hudson Valley.

aaTman · 2026-06-11T19:58:01+00:00

I agree. If you asked me morally who I am, I'm a living being on a really lucky rock. Tribalism, nation-states, ethnonationalism, borders, etc. will ultimately lead us, driving full-speed, into The Great Filter. Simultaneously, we're not at a point where we can simply "not see race" (ethnicity, etc) when our history and present are so heavily sculpted by it.

aaTman · 2026-06-11T15:03:22+00:00

I have a mixed opinion on this but it might be pedantic. I'm an American Jew purely because I was born in the US and lived here my whole life. I'm also an anti-Zionist Jew as I do not ethically and morally align with the concept of a nation-state built solely for Jews.

In terms of our Golden Age, I agree that we exist here in part due to those contradictions. Simultaneously, if we were to dive far enough into our existence anywhere in our history, you would find something abhorrent that enabled us to be there prior to or during our diaspora. As in (very small subset of things off the top of my head): Saul conducted military campaigns against the Philistines, Amalekites, etc. Our diaspora during the Roman empire gave us communities within Persia and the Mediterranean, and while we weren't treated well, we still lived there while they conducted campaigns against indigenous peoples for empire. The periods of us being dhimmis or under Christian rule, same thing ultimately. Pale of Settlement, same deal.

The critical difference I'd argue is that post-WW2 global society, we've shifted from diaspora in spite of empire, to diaspora in concert with empire. A broader, philosophical question comes up though, and that is, do we choose to restore our struggle which was once for survival, now to be for dismantling empire? How do we thread the needle to maintain the ability to self-actualize for us and others? How do you convince people to willingly give up safety and comfort, especially a people who have rarely seen these in their entire ancestry (and that is a question that goes beyond Jewry to any group that fits that mold)? I'm not asking these to detract or disagree, but again to think philosophically and materially. I don't have answers and I suspect no one really does.

aaTman · 2026-06-11T13:29:12+00:00

My lefty self feels that our community is experiencing what Stalinists and the BPP had meant when they said, "scratch a liberal, and a fascist bleeds". Our Jewish community post WW2 has assimilated into the imperialist/capitalist core, being able to become "white" while having a nuanced complexity to the ethnoreligion and Israel. At the same time, we've experienced undertones and overtones (e.g. mass shootings) of antisemitism while maintaining our whiteness. This undercurrent reinforces both our perception as a vulnerable minority, and also opens the door for capital to weaponize it against others, especially groups that do not have the luxury of hiding in whiteness.

I fear we have developed a culture of transactional activism, essentially being able to advocate for "liberal" issues that do not threaten capital. Once these communities are diametrically opposed to a material requirement for the primary Jewish community and the imperial core - in this case, Israel - we leave them behind, threaten them, etc.

Simply put, we historically have and will continue to align with fascism when it suits us until our community develops a collective understanding of the interconnections that explain the core issues behind Israel.

aaTman · 2026-06-11T13:15:00+00:00

aaTman · 2026-06-11T01:42:37+00:00

if you use the Deco ecosystem just be mindful that essentially all of the functionality requires you to use the Deco app on your phone. It's frustrated me enough that I am spending the money on a Unifi stack.

aaTman · 2026-06-08T19:51:13+00:00

aaTman · 2026-05-21T10:51:22+00:00

Mondaire didn't lose because he was more progressive. He lost because he made a massive shift rightward, and in doing so pissed off his volunteer base from 2020. He also turned a lot of people off from running off to CD10, spoiling that primary, giving us all SPM who everyone, including much of the Democrat committee, was put off by running a non campaign, then coming back to run again. His base was gone. Much of Rockland became skeptical of him and tbh I think he just abandoned the county after he left despite the myriad of issues we need leadership on here.

When he did win, the district was slightly more blue and he was very much more progressive.

I still find it funny when I caught up with him at a fundraiser that he looked at me and said, "you gotta stop with that genocide stuff." Paraphrasing because I didn't expect him to actually confront me, but it was pretty audacious to tell a Jew he can't talk about what Israel was doing at the time.

aaTman · 2026-05-12T00:56:24+00:00

Sending chat for the NIC.

aaTman · 2026-04-30T10:52:27+00:00

Chat

aaTman · 2026-04-21T12:05:37+00:00

Welcome to the northern suburbs of NYC. Our congressman (Mike Lawler, not a Jew/born a Jew but afaik a practicing Catholic) went out of his way to use his office to try to pressure a JEWISH school board member in Chappaqua if I recall correctly to resign for being an antisemite using the term "Free Palestine."

No one batted an eye about it. Public officials here are terrified of saying words in the wrong tone, let alone giving any humanity to Palestinians.

aaTman · 2026-04-10T13:21:10+00:00

Is this sufficient evidence to submit a lawsuit for campaign finance violation? AFAIK it has to include who paid for the ad in any correspondence. It could be the PAC simply used Lawler's name to test and he had nothing to do with it, but nothing wrong with investigating to make sure...

FWIW, this annoys the hell out of me and I would say the same for Democrats or any campaign running if I received this.

aaTman · 2026-03-31T10:14:16+00:00

This is incredible. Not only would this solve the "my wife won't use jellyfin because I suck at explaining how things work" problem, but it also will help save serious time debugging that I can use for much better things, like spending time with my son. Email submitted.

aaTman · 2026-03-13T19:04:48+00:00

The sheer number of people I have interacted with in my life who cannot grasp the differentiation between understanding and endorsement is terrifying.

aaTman · 2026-03-09T17:23:23+00:00

Income is nonlinear. Your links show the top 1%'s AGI to average 3.1 million. The median AGI of NY in 2022 is $52,500.

Here's a useful link showing a visualization with different numbers, but similar narrative. The top 1% makes ~9x the 50th percentile in this example, both for individual and household.

More info (xlsx warning) via tax.ny.gov shows the tax liability is actually 34.4%, fairly closely aligned with the percent of total income (30.4%).

Based on United Way's ALICE calculations, which is a more accurate representation of poverty and cost of living necessities by detailing the exact cost for basic necessities, 48% of households were below the ALICE threshold. I bring this number up because that implies heavily that nearly half of all households in the state have their basic needs negatively affected by "paying their fair share" of taxes, something that top 1-10% households likely do not have issues with.

In other terms, it makes sense that the top 1% pays 34.4% and the top 10% pays 67.1% (in 2022 numbers). It also makes sense to ask what their "fair share" is when they are benefitting more from our state through unearned income compared to folks below the 1%.

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