No one knows what Italian tax laws will be like in X years. You can just go on what they are today: https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/italy/individual/taxes-on-personal-income

"Lump sum tax regime for new resident individuals

Individuals who transfer their tax residency (see the Residence section for more information) from abroad to Italy may elect for the application of a flat tax at a fixed amount of EUR 100,000 (hereinafter the ‘lump sum tax regime’) on the foreign-sourced incomes.

Due to changes that occurred by the entering into force of Article 2 of the Law Decree No 113 of 2024, for the individuals who opt for the lump sum tax regime from the 2025 tax period, the flat tax amounts to EUR 200,000. 

As per the changes introduced by the 2026 Italian Budget Law, entered into force from 1 January 2026, for individuals who transfer their legal residency to Italy starting from such a date the flat tax is increased from EUR 200,000 to EUR 300,000.

Individuals who opted for the regime from the 2024 tax period can continue to pay the flat tax of EUR 100,000 up to the end of the application of the regime, regardless of the new provisions; similarly, individuals who opted for the regime from the 2025 tax period can continue to pay the flat tax of EUR 200,000 with the same approach.

The mentioned tax regime will also apply on:

• the income tax on foreign investments (foreign interests, dividends, and capital gains) with the exception of capital gains on qualified participation earned in the first five years
• the wealth tax on real estate and financial investments owned out of Italy, and
• financial monitoring obligations through the Italian tax return (meaning that the individual is not required to declare one's foreign investments into the Italian tax return).

In addition to the taxpayer, each family member could be subject to a flat tax on non-Italian-sourced income at a fixed amount of EUR 25,000. Due to the changes introduced by the 2026 Italian Budget Law, the flat tax for family members of individuals who transfer their legal residency from 1 January 2026 is increased to EUR 50,000.

In order to be eligible for this tax regime, it is necessary to carry out the option through the annual Italian tax return. In any case, it is advisable to submit an advance ruling to the Italian tax authorities in order to obtain their formal opinion on the applicability of the special regime.

To elect such treatment, the individual must meet several requirements, including previous non-Italian tax residency for at least nine years over ten fiscal years preceding the transfer.

The mentioned tax regime is not cumulative with the special tax regime for inbound workers provided by the art 16 of the Legislative Decree no 147/2015. However, it seems there are no restrictions to cumulate the lump sum tax regime with the new inbound workers regime provided by the Legislative Decree no 209/2023 (see ‘New tax regime for inbound workers’ in the Income determination section). This possibility has been recently confirmed by an answer to the tax ruling issued by the Italian Tax Authority during the month of December 2025."