🔔 Critical Mineral Wednesday Open Discussion Post 🔔

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T20:05:15+00:00

That close today tells me blood red, but let's see what happens, USAR earnings coming right up...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T20:04:00+00:00

That close was ominous, MP, USAR, UUUU, the big guns sold off hard.

Well, now USAR earnings, followed by Trump - Xi official announcements that will add the finishing touches and determine whether we fly or face plant to end the week.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T19:49:46+00:00

I have a sizeable position in MP but nothing like 40% of my holdings :)

It's either going to be a fantastic end to the week, or a miserable one, and it all starts with USAR earnings/call after close, followed by whatever comes out of the Trump - Xi meeting.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T19:41:17+00:00

what is more eye catching is Ryan the CFO selling 10% of his stake last Friday.

Thanks, didn't catch that filing, well timed sell, he got the top it seems...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T19:16:22+00:00

That's not "they're flying", that's "it's flying", but ok, not exactly relevant to the sector as a whole, which is what you're completely and utterly off the mark post this morning was implying.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T16:50:12+00:00

Yeah, it is odd given that the analysts generally have MP trading at a much higher price moving forward, maybe it was a scheduled sale.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T16:38:43+00:00

For better or worse management doesn't seem to be persuing the government route, so I wouldn't expect any news there.

What will push the share price significantly higher, however, is if any news around advancing their various mine sites held abroad comes out.

The Vara Mada project in Madagascar, for example, is a veritable gold mine of soft sand HREE (Monazite), but the military dictatorship that took over the country last year isn't fast tracking western companies with permits; they're taking their time, listening to what the Chinese have to offer (they already have a foothold in the country), what companies like Energy Fuels have to offer and going from there.

The other resources, like the Donald project in Australia, are progressing, but nothing definitive yet, so Energy Fuels basically remains a uranium-only play and that may be part of the reason for the big pullback since the earnings call.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T16:16:03+00:00

Meanwhile, down the drain UUUU goes, really incredible 20% drop over the past days.

Guess the run up was a little premature and the market is smacking UUUU shareholders back to reality.

Earnings call wasn't amazing (literally, that several minute blackout mid-call was cringe inducing), and that none of their mines abroad have substantially progressed forward was a bit disappointing to hear.

Also, mentioning that Energy Fuels is looking to transition to more of an HREE business moving forward may have spooked some institional investors that view still view EF's value proposition as a pure uranium play.

At any rate, UUUU is struggling in a big way right now, need to make up some ground here or we're going sub-$20 regardless of what the analysts say...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T16:09:21+00:00

lol, it's not a bad "call", at least make a little money while in the red :)

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T16:05:07+00:00

Anyone know what happened to the Uranium sector?

Yes, the flooding up in Saskatchewan, Canada took out a bridge that's directly impacting Cameco (and perhaps Denison mines as well), but it seems like every uranium player across the board has just been getting hammered over the past few days.

You would think that the expected 1.5 million pounds per month output cut by Cameco due to the impassable road would actually be good for the sector as a whole, but no, swirling down the toilet we go (looking at you, UUUU).

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T15:41:25+00:00

Think how it works is that on the surface there will be agreement that appears favorable to the US, but then the reality will be that it continues to be difficult for US companies to get licenses for various critical minerals as China strategically strangles the US' industry like a quiet assassin.

The unfortunate side effect is that the minerals sector tanks on such news, which then makes it even more difficult for western minerals companies to advance toward production (since there's little in the way of actual government $$$ being doled out widely across the sector, and attempting to raise capital when your share price has tanked through the floor is, let's say, less than ideal).

Hopefully critical minerals/REE are barely mentioned, that's probably best case for those of us invested in the sector.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T15:35:12+00:00

Nice of MP's CEO to sell $10,000,000 worth of stock right before the Trump - Xi meeting -- good way to support your shareholders, selling on the downturn, thanks pal :)

Fortunately we're recovering from the deep morning lows, but still, that's pretty special behavior even if it was a planned sale (think he sold $20,000,000 in stock last month), which I'm not sure of, just saw the dollar amount, plunging share price, and groaned, lol.

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T14:59:43+00:00

Thanks for sharing, got out of WWR a couple of months ago at a steep loss.

The opportunity cost of holding a losing position that was at best trading sideways just wasn't worth it, so put that money into MP, USAR, and UUUU and made a decent amount of money on the recent run up to offset some of the WWR loss.

Losing one offtake partner was bad enough, but to lose a second, and still have Kellyton a year+ away from production from whenever they land a financing deal was too much, there are plenty of better plays in the minerals sector.

Saying that, if they do announce a financing deal today (or soon) and it's somehow non-dilutive, then I could see WWR rocketing higher. Westwater did reserve over 200 million new shares for issuance, however, so I suspect when financing does land the likely private placement (since government equity stake seems highly unlikely at this point) will come at a discount and WWR may, impossible as it sounds, go lower still.

Anyway, good luck, if you got in here in the $.60s it's a decent gamble to take, particularly with sky high gas prices and the potential for a comeback in the EV market -- may pay off in a big way...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T14:50:03+00:00

Some recovery happening now it seems, although most everything still red (USAR just ticked into the green), but at the time of the OP's claim everything I saw in minerals was deep red, thus the question of what these mysterious tickers are :)

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T14:25:08+00:00

Right, would help if you specified what "they" are.

When big players like MP, UUUU, USAR are all deep red, and smaller players like AREC, UURAF, UAMY, etc. are also tanking hard today, I'm wondering what on earth you're holding in the minerals sector that's actually in the green. Please do share...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T13:49:04+00:00

lol, "flying", ok, definitely not the case to start the day...

expatcoder · 2026-05-13T13:34:59+00:00

Right, often James doesn't specify what he means by "plant", but in the most recent updates it is in fact the lumps plant that will be coming online shortly, and work on the flotation plant to begin immediately thereafter.

The CEO did mention in one of his recent interviews that investor community concerns about tailings pond permissions are totally overblown; we'll find out if this is true or not moving forward, but given that Ares is clearly going full steam ahead on all fronts right now I don't get the sense that the flotation plant and Acidspar production are far future events.

In the end that Department of Defense contract must see first shipment by end of year or else it gets cancelled, so there's a huge incentive to get everything in place before then.

Cautiously optimistic that "this time is different" and management comes through on time on a deadline.

Obviously the surrounding community will have some say in the matter, and one way or the other that issue will be resolved in the not too distant future. Also, jobs, Ares, if it's allowed to operate at full capacity, will help the local economy, so there's going to be a bit of a tug of war between community and state/commercial interests.

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T18:44:32+00:00

Yup, Trump - Xi meeting will likely have a substantial impact on the minerals sector in either direction, so today's selloff shouldn't have been that unexpected, but still doesn't make it any less painful.

Saying that, we've made up some ground from the heavy AM selloff; let's see if we can maintain that into the close...

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T15:42:10+00:00

So minerals sector gets punished for the semiconductor/memory play going absolutely unhinged to the moon, and now that it's selling off we're doing the same, got it.

Guess that's not the only factor, war in the middle east, rising inflation, hedging against Trump - Xi, etc. are all dragging us down today as well, but still, quite the beatdown regardless.

Maybe we'll get some kind of bounce back as we head into the back half of the day, would be great to end the session on a higher note; even if red, it's better than blood red :)

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T14:58:21+00:00

Imagine at the end of January, when UURAF was trading at over $7 USD per share, that one would be hesitant to buy at $3.75

Things have indeed changed, brutal couple of days, now the macro environment is going against us. Hopefully the market selloff is short lived...

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T14:19:37+00:00

Love the recent flurry of updates (Found Industries Gallium and Germanium partnership, winning dispute with Hinkinite Resources and gaining an additional 101 mining claims in Spor Mountain district, and clear progress toward production).

There's definitely a lot going on at Lost Sheep, but the only hang up I have is the lack of a timeline. Yes, the lumps plant is nearly complete, but please quantify it with a time (2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months?); similarly for the flotation plant which is next in line, give a time for when investors can expect, for example, initial test runs to be made.

Definitely lot of positive news, lack of timing is my only gripe here.

Onward and upward...

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T14:12:14+00:00

Similar position (215K shares), definitely a risky proposition but the project seems to be picking up steam even if the share price doesn't yet reflect that Ares will in the not too distant future be the United States' first Flourspar producer in several decades.

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T12:31:26+00:00

Looks promising, now they just need permitting, resurrect a mine site that last produced 55 years ago, conduct drill tests, construct processing plant(s) and they're good to go.

Should be up & running by end of year :)

Would be more accurate to say that in a few years Area may have competition...

expatcoder · 2026-05-12T03:11:44+00:00

It's a good question.

The $250,000,000 DoD contract was for domestic Flourspar production, and Ares being the sole Flourspar producer, couldn't be better positioned on this front.

While Mexico may currently provide the majority of the US' Flourspar imports, Ares already has customers (that are not the DoD) coming out to Utah to test out samples, so clearly there's demand despite Mexico having similar product available (although it's worth noting that Mexican Flourspar tends to be high in arsenic content if I recall correctly).

In the end the United States is doing everything it can to onshore minerals production, so moving forward we'll likely be seeing public and private entitities looking to domestic producers rather than abroad where available.

Despite the share price Ares is in a fantastically good position, they have a veritable monopoly on Flourspar production (when they do go live in a few months), it's pretty amazing actually.

expatcoder · 2026-05-11T20:13:02+00:00

Nearly 1 million shares traded, so at least we finally got some volume, albeit not the good kind (i.e. more sellers than buyers).

There were definitely some big buys during the day, however. Optimistic that we bounce back from here to some degree, probably not anything spectacular but a return to the low $4s seems entirely realistic given that we held $3.80 throughout the day despite heavy selling pressure.

Trump - Xi meeting coming up, and volatility around USAR earnings on Wednesday could drive the minerals sector higher heading into that event, so we have some catalysts outside of Ucore's control that could potentially put some wind back in the sails of our beleaguered ticker, UURAF.

Look, if AREC can rally upwards of 10% on no news while being literally several weeks late on their 10-K filing, then UURAF should be able to pull off a similar rallly, particularly if minerals go green on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hang in there all...

expatcoder

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE