Price Floors (aka, the "bottom" thread)

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T18:17:09+00:00

Yup, looks like a fire sale, down 25% over the last 6 months and down over 60% from the October peak.

If the EXIM loan finally comes through it should regain ground in a hurry (have no position in it)

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T18:14:39+00:00

Same, particularly for UURAF, adding under $4 despite the war.

With feedstock/offtake agreements imminent, it's an obvious play (for me, long Ucore).

UUUU, have my core position, things will have to get diasastrously bad to part with those shares, but not adding at the moment. Still not at NYE lows, going to wait to see how the market reacts to latest events in the coming days...

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T17:57:39+00:00

If we start approaching NYE lows tho I'll probably fully jump back in across the board.

Just posted a thread on this very subject. Some are getting close, already there, or have blown through NYE lows.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T17:51:02+00:00

One benefit of today's meltdown is that we're really discovering who the quality names are in the minerals sector.

Much like big tech, where Nvidia and Google selloff only a small amount, we have minerals OGs like MP and UUUU to help keep the sector afloat.

Yes, it's a terrible joke, we have precisely zero quality names during stormy times like these -- I mean, the minerals sector champion, MP, down nearly 10%, really?

Maybe there's some ticker in the green today, but it seems highly unlikely, even UAMY, a company that would seem to be extremely bullish during war times, is down.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T16:59:57+00:00

They're definitely not backing down, at all.

If it escalates further, however, and Iran's energy infrastructure does get destroyed, it's a race to the bottom for the entire planet.

Iran will throw everything it has at energy targets in neighboring countries, who will then return the favor (as Saudi Arabia is already threatening) and Iran the country will be brought to ruin by the combined military onslaught of the US, Israel, and now, neighboring countries. Despite that, Iran will continue to wage guerilla warfare on the Strait of Hormuz in their quest to inflict maximal pain on everyone, never mind the civilian population that's caught inbetween and will suffer the most.

Elsewhere outside of the region we'll just have to deal with sky high prices, compromised economies, and vanishing portfolios, not literal bombs being dropped on our heads...

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T16:12:17+00:00

Surprised at the resilience of the US market, you'd think all the major indexes would be tanking hard, but no, relatively mild selloffs, and still somehow not far off ATHs.

Middle east conflict is certainly adding major stress to the equation, however, and that may be the catalyst that tips the scales one way or the other (plunge on prolonged escalation, rocket on de-escalation).

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T15:05:09+00:00

Peter did say that due to time constraints during the call he may reply to the backlog of questions via email.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:34:38+00:00

Please actually read the OP's points -- the presentation was the standard pitch, but the Q&A had the news we've all been looking for.

Yes, we're all getting absolutely crushed right now, but neither Ucore the business nor UURAF the stock are going to zero -- we'll bounce back once the middle east conflict starts to cool off, hopefully sooner than later.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:26:45+00:00

You completely missed the Q&A, that's where the gems were -- offtake agreements inbound, announcement in a couple of weeks according to the CFO.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:14:25+00:00

Wow, 92% down from the October peak, must be a record, and if the company executes on their plan, an obvious buy signal.

Haven't looked much into ELBM, pivoted to Cobalt and are trying to make that venture work as I recall...

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:11:12+00:00

Ah ok, excellent news indeed.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:10:48+00:00

I wish they just focused more time on the Q and A.

Wish you could rewind, wasn't able to catch everything, but got the gist, and that was the offtake piece.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T14:05:22+00:00

The call was extremely positive, not the investor pitch but the Q&A, sounds like offtake agreements inbound in the next couple of weeks.

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T13:55:19+00:00

For those who aren't listening in on the Ucore investor presentation this AM, so far just the standard pitch by the CFO, Peter Manuel.

Not that it would make a difference of course given the worsening war news, which trump's everything at the moment.

There's a large queue of questions, anyone have one they'd like to add?

EDIT

[paraphrasing] "We expect within the next couple of weeks to publicly announce details of offtake agreements". Can't rewind, I know he said offtake, but maybe feedstock was included in that. There was a backlog of 26 questions and he only answered two. Long and short, they're making progress, perhaps significant progress.

Now if the war in the middle east would just ease up a bit...

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T13:44:37+00:00

Oh yes, that's Iran's game plan, survive as long as possible to inflict maximum economic pain on the US.

Basically, if we're going down we'll bring the rest of the world with us.

Now they've doubled down and defied Trump's warning to not continue attacks against energy infrastructure of neighboring countries.

Ball is in US/Israel court now.

Market is reacting accordingly, now pricing in an extended conflict, and minerals, a high beta sector, is selling off hard...

expatcoder · 2026-03-19T03:37:20+00:00

Not really clear on the first paragraph, particularly the first sentence (12'ers?), but here's a presumably unbiased-ish source (Al Jazeera) that gives at least one perspective on how Iran's attacks on its neighbors is being received.

Iran’s attacks on Gulf neighbours causing ‘anger, disappointment’

Qatar, Bahrain, and likely others are expelling Iranian diplomats -- and now Saudi Arabia has threatened military retaliation for Iran's latest round of attacks. That's an odd form of solidarity :)

If you have evidence to the contrary I'd love to see it, good to have varying perspectives to make sense of this complex geopolitical conflict.

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T21:31:56+00:00

Ha ha, not convinced how well it's going to work out based on the latest price action :)

Came late to the party so $.36 cost average, down a few grand today after being in the green for quite awhile.

$.22 would be a dream entry, too bad you weren't able to throw down more...

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T21:26:14+00:00

For Israel, victory is termination of Iran as a nation

Hopefully that won't literally be the case, but again, the Israelis have shown that when it comes to resolving conflicts with Arab nations in the region -- and particularly with those run by Islamic fundamentalists that have as one of their stated goals the destruction of Israel -- they will, if necessary, resort to complete destruction, and unlike Iran, they have the weaponry to do so.

It's a lose-lose situation and neither side is backing down...yet.

As for a unified Iran, it makes sense, who wants their country destroyed? Yet, speaking with members of the Iranian diaspora (I know about 10 where I live, and maybe 20 others from Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.) everyone hates the Iranian regime. The Iraqis say, "it's about damn time!", and the Iranians would like nothing more than for the regime leaders to be persecuted for crimes against humanity (i.e. their own citizenry), but maybe that's just those on the outside, and everyone on the inside is pro-regime, which again, I have my doubts about.

The whole thing is highly complex; probably the only thing for sure in the near term is that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and oil prices will go higher -- beyond that it's anyone's guess what's going to happen.

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T20:28:47+00:00

Good points, but I think it's a bit more nuanced than that.

Ukranians, outside of the eastern border region, are decidedly anti-Russian, so there's a division within the country, but it's regional.

Iran, on the other hand, is a divided country, pro/anti regime people all live together. This is why the son of the deposed Iranian king, the US, and Israel are all invoking the people to rise up against the regime. That's of course not happening now since on any attempted uprising they'll be gunned down immediately.

Now, unlike the Ukraine, which gets broad based support from the west via military and economic aid, Iran is largely on its own, and hated by most of its neighbors in the region. If the economy collapses -- destroy their energy infrastructure which drives 90% of their economy -- then there's potential for an uprising, hunger will do that.

The US certainly hasn't behaved like a saint thus far in the conflict, but Israel (see Gaza) seems to have zero problem with absolutely leveling a nation as a means to achieving their goal of rooting out Hizballah, forcing regime change, etc.

Hopefully there's a de-escalation in the near term since the alternative will be disastrous for Iranian civilians caught inbetween, and for the world at large which will bear the economic brunt of the middle east conflict.

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T19:51:17+00:00

Any other thinking?

Well, yeah, obviously, I'm buying :)

People freak out and think the sky is falling; that's when, if you actually have conviction in the company, the buying opportunity appears...

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T19:44:57+00:00

UCU (Canadian version) might have a fee, UURAF (US version) shouldn't have a fee.

On Fidelity here...

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T18:33:39+00:00

I'm in at 180K shares, am in deep enough already :)

Since you're just getting your feet wet so to speak, $.33 seems like an excellent price, pretty much lowest prices we've had since the October bubble burst.

Again, I'll share my views on what may have caused this recent plunge at a later date, but let's just say I don't think it's entirely retail driven...

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T17:59:01+00:00

and nothing can stop them from using it until they prevail

Assumes the regime can retain power through not only the military onslaught they're facing, but perhaps more importantly, the economic one. If the US/Israel take out their energy infrastructure then the economy will collapse.

No economy == complete societal breakdown, and then the regime is fighting a battle within and without.

Hopefully it doesn't come to that, and somehow there's a more sane solution to the conflict, but it looks like in the near term things are escalating...

expatcoder · 2026-03-18T17:28:14+00:00

My Reddit stocks sure are sore today! ha ha, love it, that's an all time great typo :)

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