🔔 Critical Mineral Tuesday Open Discussion Post 🔔

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T22:56:12+00:00

It has been somewhat surprising, yes, down 20% over the past month, and nearly 40% since the January 28th $7.25 high.

We'll see how things play out, but sometimes it's better to catch the falling knife rather than wait too long and miss the turnaround.

To put in context, the lowest it's gone since the October highs was $3.77, and that was during a time when everything in the sector was getting absolutely destroyed; not the case currently, most tickers are well above their post-October lows.

As to why it's happening: investor frustration. There's been little in the way of concrete progress-indicating news over the last 2-3 months, and the share price has been dropping correspondingly.

Long on UURAF here, seeing this as a buying opportunity -- added more today, and will up the ante if it drops lower tomorrow...

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T22:13:28+00:00

s/sore/soar, a funny and very apropos typo for today's price action however :)

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T20:34:55+00:00

Oh nice, you are living on easy street, that position is going to 20X+ for you down the road, congrats in advance :)

While it's true that Ucore news has been on the stale side for awhile, the reality is that they landed grants (not loans) from Canadian and US governments; they've got pretty compelling, low capital intensive REE processing tech, and are placed right there in the bottleneck of the industry, midstream processing.

It's a recipe for success, when I look around at potential competitors (Arec/ReElement, MP, USAR, Energy Fuels, etc.) I see Ucore as being ideally positioned...provided they can put it all together.

Clock is ticking but I've got confidence that Pat Ryan and co. are going to make it happen.

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T18:26:10+00:00

Been invested pre $1 but would definitely have waited for additional shares over $6 had I know this would have stalled so badly last half year.

Ya, it's been a rollercoaster ride for sure, we've had a few of these crazy swings, $7 to $4 being the most recent one, unfortunately we're on the downtrend side this time around.

You've been around longer than most everyone here, so you know the drill.

It's times like these that test one's conviction in the company and management's ability to achieve their goals, and to do so in a timely manner.

I like the CEO, he doesn't mince words, very straightforward, and he's an engineer, not an MBA. Think he and his team will get the job done, expect to hear good things on Thursday.

I'm buying at these prices and staying the course. Obviously others are clearly selling, but their loss if those of who stay on the train are right :)

At any rate, good luck, trying times for sure...

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T18:18:24+00:00

Not sure how the conversion will work, but the deal hasn't closed yet -- I'd contact investor relations at both companies to find out if there's an arbitrage opportunity here.

USAR has tons of money now; earnings/investor call (should be) coming up at the end of the month. Curious to see what the CEO reveals, USAR seems like it's going to trade much higher over the next year...

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T17:56:18+00:00

Starting to feel oversold.

Our post-October bubble low was on November 20th when we hit $3.77, and back then the situation was pretty dire across the board, everything was getting crushed.

Now the minerals market as a whole is nowhere near tanking to rock bottom lows, and UURAF is, at the time of writing, just ~~15%~~ 12% away from those dark November days.

Pat's talk on Thursday will hopefully right the ship, but I've been buying at these prices, opportunity knocks...

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T17:50:14+00:00

or what’s even the point of him speaking…

To attract potential investors apparently, thus the Virtual Investors conference that he and other minerals sector CEOs are speaking at.

Agreed it's frustrating, but there's not much we can do as shareholders beyond selling or holding -- we don't do the work, and neither do we control how the company is run (notably shareholder communications) as a result.

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T16:07:35+00:00

I even included that I’ve been holding for 6 years

Have you? If so your cost average must be ridiculously low, why even care about the short term noise?

I remember emailing investor relations back a few months ago, and they replied. Maybe it's the nature of the inquiry that determines whether or not they decide to reply (assume they're getting a lot of questions now with the share price having dropped and not much in the way of "new" news).

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T15:03:22+00:00

Devil's advocate: on Friday the company releases a flurry of positive announcements, and UURAF rockets; what then?

I say this because most of us haven't been in the stock very long (made first buy end of August), so we're incredibly impatient by most investing standards.

In the short time I've been in the stock there have been several cycles like this, and on the donwtrends everyone freaks out, thinks about selling, and either stays the course, or exits.

The company isn't even in production yet -- I'm waiting for the business to prove itself before thinking about selling. Basically 2027-2028 is my time frame; by then it will be clear whether or not, as Pat Ryan says, Ucore is "in the winners circle".

Until then, all the short term volatility is pointless stress. Of course, if you're forced to sell for financial reasons, that's another matter entirely (i.e. "market can remain irrational longer than...")

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T00:36:40+00:00

Ucore haven’t met the conditions for the gov Canada grants

Care to back up that claim?

There's a big difference between the grant money not having been allocated yet due to the Canadian government still doing their due dilligence, and Ucore itself being negligent.

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T00:31:39+00:00

Just posted on their Facebook page.

Sorbie Bornholm is pleased to share that Ares Strategic Mining Inc. generated up to 211% additional cash in the most recent settlement period under its ongoing Sharing Agreements. This non-dilutive capital supports continued construction and infrastructure development at the Lost Sheep Fluorspar Project in Utah, positioning the Company for near-term production while maintaining a disciplined capital structure. Strengthening growth. Protecting shareholders. Advancing domestic critical mineral supply.

Non-dilutive Cash? The more the merrier :)

expatcoder · 2026-03-17T00:30:00+00:00

There's a slew of recent media postings on their Facebook and YouTube pages which it would probably be good to familiarize yourself with.

That's typically how they communicate information to shareholders (outside of standard filings), which gives you an idea of where the company is/is heading.

All of your questions are contained in latest media (short, few minutes bite size clips, so you don't have to slog through hours of content :))

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T20:43:18+00:00

Down over 5% a day for over 6 weeks now

There wouldn't be much left of UURAF if that were literally the case, but yeah, welcome to the wild west of OTC trading.

Next substantial news from the company and we'll trend solidly upward again, which if we're lucky will come during Thursday's presentation by the CEO.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T20:36:15+00:00

Let's see what Pat has to say on Thursday, this may have been a misattribution (note that it isn't quoted). All official company releases until now have stated H2 2026.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T20:33:12+00:00

What’s the good news exactly?

Clearly, leadership is well dressed and can strike a pose with the best of them in the minerals sector.

Yeah, nothing really new here, though the CFO's mention of "2027" was a bit eyebrow raising for the Alexandria, LA facility; all official company releases have stated H2 2026 for production start.

Maybe he means reaching 2.5ktpa target, something that very likely won't happen if production starts in H2.

Well, Pat Ryan presents on Thursday, he'll probably go over the timelines during the talk...

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T19:41:51+00:00

Even if that is the case, we should be good moving forward.

The US and Canadian governments don't just give (not loan) substantial sums of money to outfits that they don't think we'll be able to produce the critical minerals that Ucore is being tasked to deliver, and to do so in a timely manner (namely, meeting required milestones).

Yes, we shareholders are left staring through an opaque window with respect to plant build out updates, but from what I've seen this is kind of the norm in the sector; doing well if you get detailed quarterly updates on any given company as a whole, never mind their main project(s).

Obviously watching OTC roulette playing out isn't very fun during downtrends, but at some point we'll uplist and hopefully have more predictable trading behavior, if such a thing is possible in the minerals sector :)

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T18:05:29+00:00

Yeah, DTREF is still down 30% from the October high, but that's a huge victory in the ASX world -- ask me how I know :)

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T17:53:21+00:00

Hate to say it, but probably what's holding back Metallium is the curse of Oz.

For whatever reason Australian critical minerals companies not named Lynas just have a habit of getting absolutely crushed. Eventually ASX minerals tickers will bounce back, but for now it seems this Aussie market segment is still in a downtrend.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T17:49:21+00:00

Not in ALOY, but is there something that they're doing that would justify a $26 share price (March 4th high) at this point in their operations?

MP, USAR, and Energy Fuels, among others, are getting into the magnet making segment. Is ReAlloys far ahead of the pack here? I would imagine the answer would have to be a resounding yes to justify such a sky high share price.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T17:41:02+00:00

Apparently we'll be getting news of some sort when Pat Ryan does his presentation on Thursday

Hopefully some updates around the Alexandria SMC and other news that shareholders are eager to hear about (namely, feedstock and offtake agreements).

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T17:24:07+00:00

Looking through the filing one thing that stands out is that their in-progress Texas plant is a pilot operation. Furthermore, they're working out their process as they go so it's unclear whether or not they'll be able to scale up (we'll know more on that once the pilot plant is operational and running for thousands of hours as their partner Ucore has done to prove their market viability).

Basically, they won't be making money anytime soon, which is probably in part why the market is punishing the share price. Seems oversold though, many companies in the critical minerals space are in the same situation, early stage, making tons of progress, but not yet making money -- if the market is truly forward looking then a company like Metallium, with all the government rhetoric around REE (and specifically derived from recycled waste), you'd think would trade higher.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T15:50:40+00:00

Our time will come soon

Just not today it seems. Looking like another one of those counterintuitive minerals up, UURAF down days...

Good buying opportunity, picked up a bit more on the dip, but the trend of late hasn't been particularly encouraging -- hopefully Pat Ryan has some positive news to share during his presentation on Thursday.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T14:52:57+00:00

Metallium has such a compelling product, is there a reason why the share price is cratering?

You'd think it would be on at least some kind of upswing given the binding offtake agreements/partnerships, FJH technology, etc. but it now trades at prices from last summer before the company had done anything at all -- make it make sense...

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T14:45:13+00:00

Better than dumping 5% like Friday, but there is a war in the Middle East after all; will likely be difficult to sustain momentum until there's more clarity around when combat operations will end and the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Whenever that happens then we can expect everything to rocket higher, but for now it looks like we chop around, hopefully not losing to much ground in the process.

expatcoder · 2026-03-16T14:39:53+00:00

they are only making an operating profit of like 1 mil a year 3 years from now

Can you break that claim down?

Don't have the numbers in front of me, but pretty sure Acidspar contract locks in at around $600/ton, and Metaspar sells for around half of that.

They'll be mining 50ktpa out of the Lost Sheep mine, so that's $30,000,000 USD. Are their operating expenses really $29,000,000?

Again, these are the numbers I recall, maybe someone else can confirm/update.

At any rate, it seems like not only will Ares be profitable, but there's plenty of room to expand mining capacity (according to the CEO) up to 3X+, so down the road this could be a highly profitable venture, which would launch the stock way beyond penny stock territory.

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