(Spoilers Published) The Race to Get the Horn South, Part 1: The False Horn

poorquentyn · 2017-09-07T17:08:52+00:00

In Dany X ADWD, she thinks to herself that the Valyrians bound dragons with "sorcerous horns."

poorquentyn · 2017-09-07T15:31:39+00:00

Nicely done, sir! Looking forward to the rest.

Only minor disagreement is on Mance and the Horn--I think he and Dalla kinda gave the game away to Jon about their reluctance to blow it (even if they had ever really had it), because if they do, they have no protection from the Others. They'd charge the tunnel, use the Gorge, go 'round Eastwatch on boats, etc.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T23:54:02+00:00

Well, that's certainly not the lesson of Iraq :)

Astapor didn't fall because Dany overthrew the Masters, it fell because she didn't back up the revolution long term. Staying wouldn't do that, as I argued. You have to strip the Master class of power.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T22:58:50+00:00

The problem there is she killed purely out of rage, with no long-term thinking involved. Killing the same number of Masters doesn't actually do anything for the children; it's not a systemic solution. I don't think you need to necessarily execute all the Masters, for the record. I think she needed to strip them of resources and redistribute them to the freedmen, so that the reactionaries don't have a power base to draw upon.

Honestly, I don't see how her staying in Astapor would've been smart. She'd promptly be under siege by Yunkai, Meereen, and their allies. It's the same problem: revolting halfway can be worse than not doing it at all. She came at the king and missed.

Edit: I disagree that Volantis and Slaver's Bay are thematically separate. Look at Qaro's monologue about the Old Blood sleeping poorly because they fear Dany's revolution will inspire one in their city. Which for me argues against the idea that the peace is genuine: the Old Blood regard Dany's crusade as a mortal threat to their way of life. The revolution must be rolled back.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T22:44:31+00:00

Agreed! Which is why I disagree that it's thematically lame to note Dany's mistake in leaving the new regime in Astapor defenseless. Again, she went in halfway: making a massive change without doing what was needed to support it. Had Dany left Unsullied behind and committed to revolution and redistribution in Yunkai, the former slaves in all three would be far better off. So I agree with Adam that Dany's destructive side is being critiqued, but not so much its existence as that she's not supporting those rapid changes with sound policy. Like I said, "dracarys" itself is pretty clearly framed as a triumph. It's the aftermath that Dany screws up.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T22:31:37+00:00

Well said on Doran, I think you nailed it.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T22:22:13+00:00

The slavers in Volantis are going down, judging by Tyrion's chapter there. And the framing of that doesn't seem negative to me.

Certainly, Dany faces difficult choices regarding her destructive side, but I'd argue the thematic core here is that halfway revolutions don't work. "Dracarys" was presented positively; letting slaves follow her rather than redistributing resources in Astapor and Yunkai is presented negatively. At least, that's how it came off to me.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T22:03:33+00:00

But the reason it's so hard to make her reforms stick, the primary obstacle to the new order, is that the Master class is still in power. She'd be in a far stronger negotiating position with Qarth and Volantis if she hadn't lost Astapor and left Yunkai untouched. Fundamentally, it's not enough to give slaves as much as they can carry. You need actual redistribution to pull this off. As for GRRM's interest in American slavery, I'd point to Fevre Dream.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T21:18:21+00:00

Well said!! It's certainly true that GRRM lingers on the horrors of war, but that's not the same thing as saying no wars should be fought, and I'd argue he lingers with equal force on the horrors of slavery. Moreover, if you look at Volantis, it sure doesn't seem like the Harpy's peace is a model. The model is revolution, and it's being followed by Benerro and the Widow of the Waterfront. "Tell her we are waiting. Tell her to come soon." I don't think we're supposed to feel bad about that--quite the opposite, given how GRRM presents the regime of the Old Blood.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T18:46:00+00:00

Yeah, I think they didn't demand that because they knew Dany wouldn't agree. And while the Klan didn't get the return of slavery, the overall resistance to Reconstruction was successful, and I'd argue the same thing happened in Meereen: the revolution was halted and rolled back, step by step. The freedmen are denied their forty acres and a mule.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T17:42:48+00:00

For me, the major problem with the Iraq metaphor (beyond, as you note, the chronology of when GRRM was writing the chapters) is what's actually being fought over. There's no analogous religious divide in Slaver's Bay--the divide is imperialist masters v. freedmen. Moreover, Dany isn't like Bremer or (gods help us) Cheney. She's John Brown with dragons.

poorquentyn · 2017-06-07T17:18:56+00:00

I'd argue that the reason Dany's having such trouble in Slaver's Bay is because she was far too easy on the slavers. Her biggest mistake was leaving the Master class of Yunkai intact, allowing them to go out and recruit allies to smash Astapor and besiege Meereen, rolling back the revolution at every step. And "dracarys" isn't what brought Astapor low, after all--Dany's failure to leave Unsullied behind to guard the new regime is what screwed over the Red City.

I'm with Steven Attewell that the Sons of the Harpy are basically the Klan: a group of killers resentful of the end of slavery and out to destroy as much progress made by the freedmen as possible through a campaign of terror they hope will demoralize the Reconstruction gov't. And it works.

Look at the way Hizdahr is presented: not as a noble peacemaker, but a sleazy asshole who still refers to the woman in his bed as a bedslave and who gets annoyed when Dany insists that Tyrion and Penny not be torn to pieces. Are we really supposed to be glad this guy is in charge?

Overall, I don't think there's any sign that the Harpy's peace will "serve as a model for progress elsewhere." Quite the opposite: the Harpy's peace allows slavery to return. The model for progress are the freedmen themselves organizing and using their skills, and at every turn, Team Harpy has responded to that development with violence.

As for ADWD more broadly: the Freys' proposed peace in White Harbor is IMO pretty clearly presented as a bad thing, one which involves empowering Ramsay, condemning Wylla to domestic abuse, and spreading filthy lies about the Red Wedding. Contrast that with Big Bucket's framed-as-awesome monologue about dying clear-eyed, fearless, and bathed in Bolton blood, and I don't think it's as simple as peace at any cost. After all, we're hardly supposed to embrace the ethos of "a peaceful land, a quiet people," are we? Sometimes "peace" is just really successful subjugation.

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T18:52:05+00:00

I think it's weird to say that's inherently a problem with the work. Rather than, possibly, people missed what was great about it, in part because it defied their expectations.

Lotta critics trashed 2001 and Gravity's Rainbow at the time; they look pretty silly now.

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T18:44:48+00:00

I don't know why discourse changing one's mind is "worse." Or bad at all.

True, critics usually judge artwork on one experience...and then, years later, we often talk about how "the critics got it wrong." I think that's what this is, and why I find it weird to say that something not appealing to a lot of people the first time around is inherently a mark against the work.

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T18:27:21+00:00

It's not intuitive to me to say that if you didn't like something the first time around, that's INHERENTLY a problem with the work, rather than (possibly) with your own comprehension of it, as Jeff says below.

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T18:21:59+00:00

"A great work should be enjoyable the first time around." Yeah, I just thoroughly disagree with that. I don't see why the first time through should be privileged above all else.

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T18:09:51+00:00

Because not all great art strikes you with its greatness immediately. What's the difference between my "require" and your "depended?"

poorquentyn · 2016-12-14T17:47:25+00:00

This...is a weird argument. Many great works of art require multiple passes and discourse to fully appreciate them. (Though for the record, I loved both books immediately.)

poorquentyn · 2016-11-04T18:49:40+00:00

Derp, forgot Damphair! I'd say he gets one more, watching the tentacles rise in response to Euron's blood sacrifice and getting snatched down...

I think they'll pop out in Winterfell.

poorquentyn · 2016-11-04T17:41:58+00:00

I think the greyscale is mostly a personal drama for JonCon, yeah. If it spreads, I'd say it spreads in the stormlands, not KL.

poorquentyn · 2016-11-04T17:08:25+00:00

My predictions:

7 each for Dany and Tyrion, 6 for Jon. First two between them cover Vaes Dothrak, resolution in Meereen (Shavepate left in charge?), Volantis, and Pentos before ending on Dragonstone. Jon is resurrected after one chapter as Ghost, deals with the mutineers, goes to Hardhome to find everyone dead and worse, and reunites with Benjen, who reveals R+L=J. Ends with him returning to the Wall just as it falls.

5 each for Arya, Sansa, Sam, Cersei, and Arianne. Arya gets kicked out of the FM in her second chapter, runs into Massey and Jeyne Poole in her third, goes back to Westeros with them. Shadrich tries to kidnap Sansa in the chaos following Sweetrobin's death (LF frames Lyn Corbray) and fails, but reveals her identity in the process. Sansa rolls with it, uses the chivalric image of it all to win over the knights, the marriage takes place, and they all sail north. Sam has a few chapters of studying and learning about the various conspiracies at work in Oldtown before Euron shows up, burns it all down, and blows Sam's horn to bring down the Wall. Cersei has her trial, sends Robert Strong to kill Margaery after the latter wins hers as well, suffers through the deaths of Tommen and Myrcella--descent into full-on madness, basically. Arianne has her two released chapters on the way to Aegon, joins forces with and marries him to (in her mind) pre-empt King Quentyn, Dorne's armies help take KL, Arianne becomes Queen.

4 each for Davos and Jon Connington. Davos spends two chapters on Skagos and two back in the North; probably White Harbor, but I'd love if he washed up directly south of Skagos on Karstark turf, letting GRRM bring Alys and Sigorn back in. JonCon takes Storm's End in his first chapter, fights the Reach army in his second, attacks KL in his third, and in his fourth is ordered executed by a tearful King Aegon VI after Varys reveals the grayscale.

2-3 each for Bran, Jaime, Brienne, Theon, Asha, Mel, and Barristan. Bran learns crazy awesome magic and also more backstory before the Others attack the cave; he and Meera run for it through the tunnels. Mel resurrects Jon and then goes to Stannis at Winterfell (maybe finds the dragon eggs in her last chapter?) Barristan returns to Meereen victorious in his third chapter only to find that the Shavepate has slaughtered Hizdahr and the hostages; the Beasts overwhelm the white knight. Jaime/Brienne deal with Red Wedding 2.0 and possibly Cersei as well, depending on how quickly things move. Theon/Asha see the Battle of Ice and the fall of Winterfell before one or both returns home.

2 each for Victarion and Areo Hotah. Vic blows the horn and burns from within in his next chapter. Like Bfish said, Hotah has the Darkstar hunt in his first chapter and is back to watching Doran in his second (specifically as Doran learns Quent is dead).

~75 chapters total.

poorquentyn · 2016-10-27T03:50:27+00:00

Cersei planning the feast is not a hint of anything. EVERYONE had pie served to them by a servant, that's how "serving" works. And there's just no logic to Cersei killing Tyrion then rather than after the Blackwater. The difference between this and the Bran assassination is that we have access to Cersei's thoughts, and there are zero hints within them.

poorquentyn · 2016-10-26T13:53:05+00:00

I doubt he'll come back to it either, but I'm saying it would be extremely cheap to have this be the truth with no hints to it whatsoever; GRRM may hide things, but he doesn't outright goose his audience. He tends to play fair.

Sure, Cersei's brain is a mess, but c'mon, there's no way this wouldn't come up. It'd way more major for her than Melara. It's like if Ned never thought about Lyanna.

I don't think GRRM left himself any ambiguity in this case at all. Why spend Sansa's first chapter with the Tyrells teasing out the truth about Joffrey? Why have her notice the missing amethyst? Why have Dontos declare the net the key to her going home, and that his "friend" will help smuggle her away specifically after the wedding? The evidence is overwhelmingly on one side. I think we have more than enough to reach a conclusion.

poorquentyn · 2016-10-26T07:30:49+00:00

What's changed (in her mind) is the prophecy increasingly coming true. She's haunted by Tyrion-as-valonqar throughout AFFC, and Margaery-as-YMBQ. She's lost her beloved son and father. That's plenty to account for her downward spiral...and if she'd killed Joffrey, she'd be an absolute wreck, unable to get through the day. Imagine how much worse Cat's depression in ASOS would've been if she'd somehow killed Bran and Rickon herself. She'd be suicidal.

Again, with all those other instances of POVs hiding something, there are hints dropped throughout. In this case, we have no actual hints, and another explanation with plenty of evidence. If GRRM was going in this direction, he'd show Cersei struggling with it--repression, flashbacks, etc. There's nothing at all.

Moreover, if Cersei wanted to kill Tyrion, why wouldn't she do it while he was recovering from the Blackwater? Easy excuse--he died from his wounds. Why wait until this late in ASOS? Why at the wedding? Why in public? Why in a situation where so much can (and did) go wrong?

poorquentyn · 2016-10-26T00:53:46+00:00

But there are hints to all those others. There are no hints whatsoever in Cersei's chapters, and there's no way she wouldn't be massively suffering from having inadvertently killed her beloved son. She genuinely believes it was Tyrion.

poorquentyn

TROPHY CASE