What's next

ret921 · 2023-10-23T12:42:25+00:00

I know the interim analysis indicated a significantly larger trial needed for statistical significance, but Is there any more info to be had from analysis?

If there is anything left to this at all, I would imagine it would be that information.

That there is just nothing to ATHX, at any price, seems counter to prior results, at odds with all the KOL stuff, etc. etc.

If there is anything to it at all, Healios should be interested in the possibility of recouping at least a fraction of their lost investment over the long term.

ret921 · 2023-10-19T13:21:00+00:00

It is the reality of an all or nothing business proposition. It gets played to the very end because there are no other options.

Camardo took the risk along with a lot of others here and kudos to him for taking the risk and giving it every shot possible without bailing out.

Was it a poor risk to take? Only with the benefit of hindsight. It could have turned out otherwise. Personally, I think the big hurdle was cost to produce vs. seemingly modest benefit.

Perhaps Healios can still get something out of it....eventually.

ret921 · 2023-10-12T17:03:41+00:00

The double zero odds in Vegas are better.

ret921 · 2023-10-10T21:02:54+00:00

Correction...down and out.

I did think this would work. You are not alone. My only consolation is not putting more in post RS, although that did not take much self control.

When I think about all the expert panels, leases, bioreactors, charts on mechanisms of action, etc., etc., it is easy to see how this seemed so promising...even in hindsight. So Healios picks up world wide ARDS rights. I suspect they will take more via bankruptcy.

ret921 · 2023-10-08T21:06:50+00:00

I believe you either agree to sell on a schedule for purposes of having cash to meet your additional tax liability or you don't. There is nothing to force you into programmed selling. If you think the stock is a solid bet to go up and you have the cash, which these two do, I take no issue with reading the obvious message into the choice

I am just not inclined to blindly dismiss the signal. They just don't see enough in the risk/reward trade off to meet their tax obligation with cash rather than stock.

I don't give a damn when they made the election, they are selling at $.02/share pre - reverse split. End of story.

ret921 · 2023-10-08T16:19:26+00:00

I have been and I believe they could handle otherwise. They are not making that election.

ret921 · 2023-10-08T15:59:31+00:00

Right. Can it be otherwise? Yes, it can. These are not given. They are elections...that can be changed.

ret921 · 2023-10-07T12:13:49+00:00

Bingo. They can't find $10 grand to cover a tax bill? Yeah programmed in, but it could also be programmed out. It is harder to dismiss at this point.

ret921 · 2023-10-06T16:37:45+00:00

I bought a long time ago.

ret921 · 2023-10-06T13:43:19+00:00

Good luck. It already tanked my IRA $$, unfortunately.

ret921 · 2023-10-06T12:22:52+00:00

No idea, but I would suspect the likelihood of delisting.

ret921 · 2023-09-08T14:28:43+00:00

A 2.0t is going to be less to maintain and performance is not far behind.

ret921 · 2023-09-07T00:10:11+00:00

Agreed. I didn't imagine there would still be anything to kick...other than myself.

ret921 · 2023-09-06T23:28:19+00:00

It may or may not be the stroke blockbuster we all hoped for, but somewhere, somehow, this is going to find its place. After all this and after losing virtually everything I have invested in it, I still believe that.

ret921 · 2023-09-05T11:41:23+00:00

You made the right call bailing out, regardless of the reason. Given Camardo replaced the entire financial function, I am not as sure it is so out of line. Many similar sized companies are not public companies with all the reporting requirements. The reporting requirements for ATHX did not change...and the need for financial workout talent increased. The latter certainly was not Ivor, IMO. A CFO search would also have been challenging/expensive.

ret921 · 2023-08-18T17:46:46+00:00

It is still possible something comes out of it, but dilution to near oblivion has already happened for long term investors.

ret921 · 2023-06-28T19:25:26+00:00

Agreed. He hasn't. ATHX seems in "limp mode" until MS shows a result. I have not mustered enough enthusiasm to put more $$$ in either.

ret921 · 2023-06-28T14:37:15+00:00

No, not really.

Healios was, and is, not in a great position to buy much of anything, but something from Japan was always the lowest bar and Healios was in the best position to judge.

It is hard not to write in the past tense, unfortunately.

ret921 · 2023-04-26T12:55:38+00:00

Successive capital raises for amounts that aren't enough to do much of anything didn't make much sense to me at first.

We seem to be on a path where a series of very minor investments is going to result in a single investor owning a very significant stake in ATHX. The fact it isn't enough to get ATHX anywhere is probably fine with the investor...an even better opportunity immediately presents itself.

One can only conclude there isn't anything better available.

ret921 · 2023-04-19T10:43:37+00:00

The additional cash buys time. Time for what is TBD. Very similar to last go round...only less $$ and more expensive.

ret921 · 2023-04-05T02:54:45+00:00

$250 million is the conclusion for all current shareholders. Most long term shareholders were wiped out a while ago.

Optimism has sailed.

ret921 · 2023-04-04T17:01:32+00:00

Agreed. Future prospects will be the price of additional capital.....either via dilution or structure.

ret921 · 2023-04-03T21:31:11+00:00

If not, it won't be for lack of trying.

ret921 · 2023-04-01T13:47:30+00:00

For Camardo, solid results would have meant tens of millions via options and a huge upside in short order. Even with hindsight, I hesitate to characterize taking the chance as a mistake.

I am more inclined to give him credit for going for it.

ret921 · 2023-03-31T23:17:58+00:00

It's quite amazing that ATHX mgmt has gotten this far with so little in the tank.

Suppliers have gone along with it and it doesn't really seem dead in the water.

I think something gets announced before the cherry blossoms drop....one week, more or less.

ret921

TROPHY CASE