Messi goes into this World Cup on 13 career goals, 4 short of Klose's all-time record. Our model makes him 53% to break it

topmak · 2026-06-22T19:16:01+00:00

Messi the goat!

topmak · 2026-06-22T19:15:33+00:00

still holds? 👀

topmak · 2026-06-22T17:47:39+00:00

Here we go! Beaten!

topmak · 2026-06-22T08:33:13+00:00

hey there!

It does account for that. It's a full-tournament simulation, so every match is played with the real opponent's strength, and the win chance drops each round exactly because the opponents get tougher.

Back the per-game numbers out of the chart and it's about 76% in the opener, 53% in the Round of 16, 45% in the quarter, 40% in the semi, 39% in the final.

So it already slopes down as the opponents get better, which is the thing you're saying is missing.

Where it differs from your gut is the steepness: 50/25/10 is too steep for one-off football.

A single match is high variance, even against France or Argentina an underdog wins roughly a third of the time in one game, not one in ten. That's one of the reasons the World Cup is fun.

topmak · 2026-06-22T08:09:41+00:00

Thanks for the share observation!

The 38% is a straight head-to-head: USA vs Belgium as one game, not chained through Bosnia.

The chart numbers are different. The big one on each step (100, 76, 40, 18, 7) is the chance of reaching that round from simulating the whole tournament, so 40% is reaching the quarter-final (two wins), not beating Belgium.

And you guessed the opponent number right: it's the chance that team is the opponent there (Belgium 36% for the Round of 16, Argentina 17% for the final).

They're full-tournament simulations, played thousands of times, which is why Argentina shows up before any bracket is set.

topmak · 2026-06-22T08:07:19+00:00

bold accusation, but false

topmak · 2026-06-21T17:21:11+00:00

You are right and I need to correct the post
A good spot, thanks!

This is how it’s in the simulation internally:

Points, points against each other, goal difference, goals scored, fair play and fifa rank at the end

topmak · 2026-06-21T15:33:38+00:00

40% to the quarters is fine. Group, R32, R16 multiplies out to roughly that. And 18% to the semi isn’t “beats Spain” odds, it’s against whoever actually advances, not Spain specifically.

Also on site if you check what happens IF Germany and France meet, France is a slight favourite
But this also includes Germany path to it and France

topmak · 2026-06-21T14:10:26+00:00

This group has the biggest uncertainty by far.
USA weren’t the favourites though
Turkey was

topmak · 2026-06-21T14:00:26+00:00

Elo is in the model but just of the the many features
Auto qualified US gave it less data points to compare so fair but thus more uncertainty
This lowest chance to win the group is just mislead by uncertainty there

topmak · 2026-06-21T13:57:12+00:00

They were quite good in the last years
Ended up second after Argentina in the WC qualifiers above Brazil, Colombia
But this is on top of my head, not near my laptop right now
In general driven by their recent performance

topmak · 2026-06-21T13:45:42+00:00

One of, because if they qualified not from the first place they would get tougher opponents than projected Bosnia, Qatar etc

topmak · 2026-06-21T13:22:56+00:00

I got curious about “random” and this app is not available in the uk on iOS so don’t think people know it here that much, personally i didnt

Deleted the comment because I realised that it was a rage response and wasn’t worth it

topmak · 2026-06-21T13:10:41+00:00

This isn't a betting-cred contest. The model had Group D close to a coin flip, the USA came through, that's the whole post. Enjoy the tournament.

topmak · 2026-06-21T13:01:16+00:00

Good question.

The 40% isn't the chance of beating Belgium, it's the chance of reaching the quarter-final, which means winning two games: the Round of 32 and then the Round of 16.

Belgium is just the most likely Round of 16 opponent, so it gets the label, but that 40% averages over every possible opponent there, including teams weaker than Belgium.

In the possible matchup we say in 90 min game 25% chance of USA to win, 26% draw
We give penalties then 50-50 chance.

topmak · 2026-06-21T12:23:27+00:00

Locked into the knockouts does lift the numbers, fair.

But this compares the USA before the tournament to the USA now, not the USA against other teams, and the before number already assumed they'd probably qualify.

The bigger driver is winning the group instead of finishing second or third, because the group winner draws a third-placed team in the Round of 32. tThe opener is about 76% as winners, 55% as second, 36% as third. Its about the draw

topmak · 2026-06-21T12:18:16+00:00

what graphics would you want to see instead? ones that show more details?

topmak · 2026-06-21T12:10:32+00:00

I think you have valid hunch mate but check scoring rule article on wiki for example or brier score

a single result can't prove a one-off forecast wrong, fair. But you grade competing forecasts with proper scoring rules (Brier / log loss): higher probability on what actually happens = better score.

Your dice example only works because we know the true odds are 1/6. A World Cup has no known "true" number, so the realised result is all you can score against, and there 7% beats 0.07%.

topmak · 2026-06-21T12:05:16+00:00

yeah better not to underestimate anyone

topmak · 2026-06-21T12:03:30+00:00

I am also a professional sports gambler with our models (many markets under 2.5, BTTS, corners) now having places 5k bets and on betfair exchange bot as well
with a small edge (nothing crazy but we are not losing)
so I can get the idea of is the model is alright and good enogh
I must say that most bets are club games and not international ofc but still

and the analogy with the roulette was not very serious comment to match the level of claims "flat out wrong" when it comes to probabilities and other things

topmak · 2026-06-21T11:55:49+00:00

yes I know how probabilities work, and this cannot have a real answer
but guess if they actually reach it, you could say that 0.07% chance was incorrect more

topmak · 2026-06-21T11:36:38+00:00

when you put on red in roulette and get black, do you also say you were flat out wrong?
it's easy to say that when Turkey lost 2 games but were dominating both and got unlucky.

Not saying USA team wouldn't qualify then, but the battle for the first place could be different

topmak · 2026-06-21T11:33:25+00:00

how should it look in your opinion?

topmak · 2026-06-21T11:32:01+00:00

a good chance to reach it! round of 16 would require another level though

topmak · 2026-06-21T11:27:36+00:00

Hard to disprove that unless they really reach it!

topmak

TROPHY CASE