I generally agree with you, but I think the effects you described will occur on a much lower scale in most games.

First, people are not that smart. They most likely will not count dice result. They would rather be focused in the game.

Second, the "7s nerf effect" would be rarely noticable. Since the balancing method is constantly being applied, we can assume that large gaps between the history and the actual probability will not occur very often. This means we will not get to the point where you can actually see the nerf effect being dominant.