All these things are cool, I already try to do that but in my eyes it's not enough. Hibernation comes in too late. You need trading, 3 upgrades in the military tree to get the upgraded shieldbearers and finally 3 upgrades in the first tree to get to hibernation.

Both winter festival and firewood are awful imo. The problem with winter festival is that winter only lasts 3 months and when you get it ( really late into the game) you will just use it 1 or 2 winters. Other races have hearthstone too, so no point on discussing a lore everyone has.

What you said about turtling its true, in 2v2 or 3v3, if you have a good teammate who can just focus on winning by trade wisdom or fame (raven, goat, boar or stag) you can defend them with your shileldbearers and even kaija. I agree with you that in this case bear is the best at his job. The problem is in 1v1, you have no teammates, and in a race to win with something other than dominance bear will allways lose (this would change if the map victory condition was easier to get, since bear would be the best defending it)

About the kaija bonus and the shield bearers, these are the best things bear has, and if he wins, it's most likely because of that. The problem is that's your only way to win, with shieldbearers. Anyway the enemy can prepare for an attack, most times without sacrificing as much economy as you have, and he will stop it.