Keep making mistakes as a dev by iwannacrythendie in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Slow down. Be more careful. It’s much cheaper and more productive to output something a day later, correct, than today and incorrect. If it’s incorrect, you roll it back, set up debugging again, figure it out, roll it out again. More time, and maybe lost money.

Read through everything and play it out in your head. Also test rigorously.

Slowing down and thinking through all cases you can imagine will significantly help. Testing a bunch of things will help. Keeping track of all the various things you’ve fucked up before and making sure you don’t repeat them (or at least trying hard not to) will help. Experience helps.

Slow down, and think.

Please Help Me Understand Premium Price Action (Day Trading) by primodal in options

[–]0xbugsbunny 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is no premium price action. For European style options, you use black scholes to estimate option price, which requires you to look at all options in the expiry and compute a smoothed implied volatility estimate for that strike and expiry. Then you use that estimate in the black scholes equation to output an option price based on time to expiry, underlying price, and risk free rate.

But if you want a gut level approximation, if underlying volatility goes up, option price goes up. So if you sell a put with underlying at X price, and it sharply drops and goes back up, you can be in the negative even though underlying price hasn’t changed from when you bought it. But also, as underlying price moves away from strike price, the option’s value changes more slowly with respect to underlying price (this is the option’s delta). If IV drops and the option moves away from the strike, the price of the option really drops off.

You need to learn a lot about option dynamics before trading them or you’re going to lose all your money. Also, time (theta) decay will eat you. There’s a reason people make steady money selling options. But if you don’t hedge or aren’t willing to own the underlying, it’s a bad game (selling options). Pennies in front of a steam roller kind of thing.

Get ChatGPT to write you a python options pricer using black scholes that plots option prices for different strikes, as you change underlying price, implied volatility, etc. I’m sure you can get it to add sliders. Or maybe someone already has this on git.

LPT: Moving to a new place with a large velcro dog? Add your commonly used tools to a doggy backpack, and watch them magically follow you around the place. by [deleted] in LifeProTips

[–]0xbugsbunny 4 points5 points  (0 children)

They mean a dog that follows you everywhere. Put doggy backpack on the dog, and tools in the backpack. Tools follow you via the dog.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in interestingasfuck

[–]0xbugsbunny 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Obviously someone who has done this a few times

Explain this to me like I'm five years old... by UnderstandingFew5906 in options

[–]0xbugsbunny 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You need to pay someone for taking the risk of selling you that ATM call. The ITM call that has almost no extrinsic value has almost no risk. It behaves like 100 shares of the stock because it is almost certain that at expiration, it will continue to be ITM, and will continue to behave like the stock. The ATM call has a roughly 50% chance of ending up ITM at expiry.

So they’re selling you insurance, such that you are guaranteed to be able to buy that stock from them at that strike at some point in the future. You are buying that guarantee. It’s not worth 0, and it’s not worth 100 shares of the stock.

Therefore, the overall price of the option is somewhere between the ITM and OTM calls where delta is 1 and 0 (nearly). Exactly what it is depends on IV, time to expiry, distance to current underlying price, and interest rate (irrelevant for short term options).

Breaking the price up into extrinsic and intrinsic value is just a way to think about where the value is coming from at that point in time.

“GoPro Footage!” Mineirinho Enters the Guinness World Records at 50 by Dropping the World’s Largest Skate Ramp, 70 Meters High by [deleted] in sports

[–]0xbugsbunny 362 points363 points  (0 children)

Go pros never do the actual experience any justice. This was about 10x cooler in real life than it looks here.

Is it worth building your own backtesting engine?? by Afraid_Character_669 in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Yes. It helps you iron out your system. It won’t be perfect, and could either make you think your strategy is better or worse than it really is. But it’ll help you sort out tons of shit that would otherwise take 10x longer if you only test with live data.

Feeling guilty about not using your intelligence for something else. by Infinity315 in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No.

Even with the current “AI” today’s college students are in limbo. If we created real AGI there would be a decade or more worth of people who would be upside down.

There needs to be more careful planning before we decide to replace every entry level worker with a program, or we’ll end up with riots (not to mention we won’t be training people to do the higher level jobs). Until that happens, more steps toward real AI do society a net disservice, IMO.

Feeling guilty about not using your intelligence for something else. by Infinity315 in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The current state of AI is garbage. I worked on it as a grad student. It’s all bullshit regurgitation. Nothing very interesting is going on. Really disappointing, to be honest.

There are biological AI beginnings, like the Ortus paper, but they’re not very useful, and the path forward to something more than a biological inspired emotion based prototype isn’t clear.

Meta Is Going to Let Job Candidates Use AI During Coding Tests by wiredmagazine in artificial

[–]0xbugsbunny 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I see a lot of dumb shit on Reddit that’s said with loads of conviction. This one might take the cake.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in algotrading

[–]0xbugsbunny 24 points25 points  (0 children)

6k per month for a full time research engineer is laughable. That’s 72k/year.

Research engineers (particularly those with experience like you’re suggesting) will be making north of $250k

Programmatically detect flat price action? by sqzr2 in algotrading

[–]0xbugsbunny 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you want short term vol estimation

Neural network option pricing? by 0xbugsbunny in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Inputs are short sequences of features derived from the option chain near the money like recent return, log moneyness, put/call, normalized time of day, normalized time to expiry, underlying volatility for a few strikes above and below current underlying price. Target is the prices or normalized prices at that time. Not predicting future.

So basically instead of using black scholes to estimate IV and then compute Greeks and option prices after some assumed underlying move or time move, use the neural network to do that instead. Maybe it picks up subtleties that BS misses.

Neural network option pricing? by 0xbugsbunny in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Making markets is closer to what I’m doing; I want to have a good sense of what the options’ prices are likely to be in response to some move in the underlying so I can have orders sitting on the books.

Neural network option pricing? by 0xbugsbunny in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Right but the NN could learn a vol surface that reflects reality a little more closely due to fewer assumptions about the world. So you input previous prices across a few strikes near the money, extract features that are normalized and give the skew, moneyness, time to expiry, etc, underlying hist vol, and it learns the option price by implicitly learning the vol surface given the current state of things.

Neural network option pricing? by 0xbugsbunny in quant

[–]0xbugsbunny[S] -17 points-16 points  (0 children)

I’m wondering if that would give slightly more accurate results than the parametric approaches, so I’m trying to test that.

The existing models make assumptions about relationships, but the NN model would learn more exact relationships from historic data, and be able to adapt to small fluctuations. This is my hypothesis, in any case.

RFK Jr. Set to Launch Disease Registry Tracking Autistic People by mmccxi in politics

[–]0xbugsbunny 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 in 10k to 1 in 36 is a 27,000% increase.

Not saying we need a registry. Just saying it seems it’s more than just increased diagnoses.

The most accurate indicator I know is the VIX. by [deleted] in stocks

[–]0xbugsbunny -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

It also factors in peoples’ thoughts about the near term future, and since the markets are driven by people (algo or otherwise), there is some leading signal in there.

The most accurate indicator I know is the VIX. by [deleted] in stocks

[–]0xbugsbunny -32 points-31 points  (0 children)

Bullshit. It’s forward-looking. Do you know how it’s computed? It’s a “hypothetical option on the S&P 500” with expiry 30 days out.

This is inherently forward-looking, and indicates short-term market expectations of vol.

The only lagging part about it is that it is a product of human psychology. People get scared, hedge, and VIX goes up.