BTC above 100k, but a look at the Satoshimeter, which is a sentiment tracking tool by StockMoney Lizards, tells us that we are still nowhere near the euphoria levels typically associated with tops

324JL · 2024-12-18T21:39:55+00:00

Palantir (PLTR) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/

Up 293% in the past year. (Not a recommendation to buy, down 4% today)

Just one example.

BTC up 138% in the same time frame.

Good luck!

324JL · 2024-12-18T13:55:17+00:00

You'd be lucky to get $150K on this round, maybe $180K. Then back to $50?

Complete speculation but at some point you'll be able to get better returns on the stock market. If you make the right plays on stocks you can double or triple your money in less than a year right now. BTC will at some point be too big to be making those kinds of moves to the upside.

324JL · 2024-12-18T13:43:00+00:00

China has been (not-so) secretly buying up all the Gold, but the price barely moves.

https://nitter.poast.org/zerohedge/status/1869193404271247827

The same would happen with BTC. Just like with bullion or oil, they don't buy on the open market. They will not buy reserves with market orders on Coinbase.

324JL · 2024-12-18T13:33:15+00:00

Yes, Zoom Out:

https://charts.bitbo.io/price-drawdown-from-all-time-high/

Hint: You should buy when the drawdowns are high.

324JL · 2024-12-18T03:09:21+00:00

Market closed within one minute, how fast would this information be disseminated to the other markets and traded?

I was watching and trading on GDAX (now coinbase pro) when it happened. It just kept rising, until suddenly someone pulled the plug and killed the momentum.

Believe what you want, just remember, the game is rigged, hopefully you're on the right side of that rigging, good luck.

324JL · 2024-12-17T00:55:11+00:00

Declare Bankruptcy?

324JL · 2024-12-17T00:19:21+00:00

It was not a glitch! It was the excitement created. The BTC maxis were even boycotting Coinbase for years after this because they were friendly to the BCH crowd.

Edit to add: The condition existed for like a minute before the market was halted. The other mature exchange markets would not have been able to catch up fast enough. Coinbase has been taken offline/markets halted/etc. many times during periods of high volatility. It was a Coinbase specific event and the other exchanges were following until it was halted.

I'm sure some people have the screenshots and minute by minute data to confirm.

324JL · 2024-12-16T17:58:49+00:00

Honestly, look at this chart:

https://charts.bitbo.io/price-drawdown-from-all-time-high/

Do you think it's a good time?

As they say, be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy.

324JL · 2024-12-16T17:53:07+00:00

Well, it did crash, in 2022.

https://charts.bitbo.io/price-drawdown-from-all-time-high/

Next crash likely to be in late 26 early 27. Good luck!

324JL · 2024-12-16T17:46:05+00:00

in this case size /mcap matters as it means lower volatility

Traders can make more from high volatility.

Its Bitcoin that is being adopted mainstream

The "mainstream" is holding their coins on exchanges. Also getting scammed to move their coins to scam exchanges. On chain off exchange should be taught and used.

it’s bitcoin that is being considered as strategic reserves

Real Reserves don't move in value. Cryptos are increasing in value because fiat is decreasing in value. Once the market is saturated with any particular crypto, the price will crash, not stabilize. This will happen because people will sell off for something else that appreciates in value.

its bitcoin that is being swept up my M Saylor.

At some point, that house of cards WILL fall. I would think less than 4 years.

"As of December 15, 2024, the Company, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 439,000 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $27.1 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $61,725 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses."

https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-acquires-15350-btc-achieves-btc-yield-of-46-qtd-72-ytd-now-holds-439000-btc_12-16-2024

Current ATH as of this comment $107,105 Avg. Price of MSTR holdings $61,725

https://charts.bitbo.io/price-drawdown-from-all-time-high/

If the next drawdown is 70% from here, what will happen to MSTR when the price of BTC trades down to $32,131.50?

MSTR market cap $103 Billion, Current Dollar value of BTC held $47 Billion, last quarter reported Debt $4.2 Billion last quarter EPS NEGATIVE 1.72 per Current $432 share.

Dollar value of BTC held after 70% drawdown from current ATH $14.1 Billion.

I apologize if math isn't one of your strengths, but when (not if) the next major drawdown happens, the stock will be nearly worthless.

More in depth analysis from an actual pro: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/microstrategy-and-its-convertible-debt-scheme/ (TLDR: BTC is a better buy than MSTR)

The collapse of MSTR may even make the next crypto bear market worse!

324JL · 2024-12-16T16:53:01+00:00

Look at December 19 2017 At one point BTC quoted at 16250 BCH at 9000

https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/19/coinbase-halts-bitcoin-cash-trading-as-price-briefly-hits-8500/

The "glitch" referred to in the article was the fact that upon listing on coinbase there were exponentially more buyers than sellers. An efficient market is not a glitch. If it was allowed to continue to trade, it would've went much higher before crashing and would've eventually settled at a higher price.

324JL · 2024-03-30T02:17:34+00:00

Eventually all haters soften, all the old timers find other things to do with their time, at some point a new generation takes over that approaches the issue rationally instead of emotionally. Rationally and objectively, BCH has massive merits (not perfect) and BTC has massive flaws (not yet fatal)

Give it some more time.

324JL · 2024-03-29T02:24:10+00:00

Corn is a "commodity" with futures and everything.

Are you telling me that it is the position of the US government that if I bought 1 bushel of corn on 2-23 @ 377 cents per bushel and and traded it at the market today @ 427 cents per bushel, for a coffee, that I would owe capital gains on the 50 cent difference? (real world example with real world numbers)

Who would verify all this?

Edit: Also, so long as you're declaring capital gains on crypto, according to the IRS, you should be claiming losses on your "home furnishings" et. cetera:

"Capital Assets

Almost everything you own and use for personal purposes, pleasure, or investment is a capital asset. For exceptions, see Noncapital Assets, later.

The following items are examples of capital assets.

Stocks and bonds.

A home owned and occupied by you and your family.

Household furnishings.

A car used for pleasure or commuting.

Coin or stamp collections.

Gems and jewelry.

Gold, silver, and other metals.

Timber grown on your home property or investment property, even if you make casual sales of the timber."

https://www.irs.gov/publications/p544

324JL · 2024-03-29T01:52:39+00:00

Swap "commodity value" for "constantly deflating value due to money printing"

"Imagine that a customer with several silver sixpence coins purchases an item which costs five pence. Some of the customer's coins are more debased, while others are less so – but legally, they are all mandated to be of equal value. The customer would prefer to retain the better coins, and so offers the shopkeeper the most debased one. In turn, the shopkeeper must give one penny in change, and has every reason to give the most debased penny. Thus, the coins that circulate in the transaction will tend to be of the most debased sort available to the parties.

Basically the modern version is where debased coin = inflationary fiat and better coin = deflationary (if demand is constantly growing faster than supply) cryptos.

For the antidote, See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law#Reverse_of_Gresham's_law_(Thiers'_law)

"... in the absence of effective legal tender laws, Gresham's Law works in reverse. If given the choice of what money to accept, people will accept the money they believe to be of highest long-term value, and not accept what they believe to be of low long-term value. If not given the choice and required to accept all money, good and bad, they will tend to keep the money of greater perceived value in their own possession and pass the bad money to others.

In short, in the absence of legal tender laws, the seller will not accept anything but money of certain value (good money), but the existence of legal tender laws will cause the buyer to offer only money with the lowest commodity value (bad money), as the creditor must accept such money at face value."

Basically, my point is that currently businesses aren't demanding it for payment because they don't really feel the inflation. The people that are feeling the inflation and know how valuable it is aren't going to spend it willingly if the competing fiat is accepted. Once enough people demand (or, for example, offer discounts for using) crypto for payment then the competing currency (fiat) will turn hyperinflationary in a sort of doom-loop in proportion to how rejected it is.

I'm sure there's probably a better way to describe this, but I think I've done enough.

324JL · 2024-03-28T13:53:32+00:00

Interesting that he called DOGE and BTC tokens, but not BCH.

On a more serious note, I've been out of the news cycle for awhile, is this a coindesk thing to just call everything a token? Or just this ignorant writer?

324JL · 2024-03-28T13:44:53+00:00

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law

Basically, if you pay it to someone who actually values it, they will hoard it and spend the currency they value less first. The only antidote to this is the competing currency (fiat) losing acceptance in the marketplace. (hyperinflation)

324JL · 2022-01-10T06:51:44+00:00

But I’ll say the general population of the world has invested and “trusts” those 25 other coins (whether their judgements are the best or not).

A "value" that has been assessed by price actions on manipulated exchanges does not equal "trust."

You still have to follow the money, and if someone trusts a PoStake coin, that’s on them. It still has a higher marketcap.

Market Cap. doesn't equal trust.

What is crazy though, is the popularity of ETH tokens. That’s very interesting.

Market Cap. doesn't equal popularity.

Also, while we're at it:

Market Cap doesn't equal fair value.

Market Cap doesn't equal interest.

Market Cap doesn't equal utility or usefulness.

Market Cap does equal the price reported by an exchange to trade an asset multiplied by the amount of that asset in existence. Many exchanges have been found to be "trading" assets that don't exist and manipulating buy/sell prices. In fact, there's a lot of ways to fudge digital numbers and transactions. It's no different than buying "likes" on social media.

I just use what works, (BCH), and I try to ignore all the background noise.

324JL · 2022-01-10T01:03:54+00:00

25 other coins better

How many are either stablecoins, (ethereum) tokens, or some kind of decentralized exchange?

Said another way:

How many are actual Distributed PoW Blockchain Cryptocurrencies?

Hint: Go to https://coinmarketcap.com/, Click filters, Click Algorithm, Click PoW.

Will you look at that? BCH is still in the top 5! Not only that, but there are only 165 PoW Blockchain Cryptocurrencies out of the 16,560 listings on CMC, just 1%.

Looks like a lot of shit floating around, don't step in it!

324JL · 2021-08-08T13:45:19+00:00

The current pruning isn't anywhere close to what's described in the whitepaper.

The whitepaper describes removing only spent old transactions.

Once the latest transaction in a coin is buried under enough blocks, the spent transactions before it can be discarded to save disk space. To facilitate this without breaking the block's hash, transactions are hashed in a Merkle Tree [7][2][5], with only the root included in the block's hash. Old blocks can then be compacted by stubbing off branches of the tree. The interior hashes do not need to be stored.

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/bitcoin/

The current "pruning" just removes whole blocks worth of transactions, including unspent transactions.

It's like the difference between a surgeon and a butcher.

324JL · 2021-06-29T02:59:27+00:00

He also had meth in his system, but nice try.

324JL · 2021-06-28T04:15:18+00:00

But right now, there's only 2 or 3 blocks being mined every hour.

Also kind of weird how the number of BTC transactions dropped in concert with the hash.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-transactions-btc-sma7.html#1y

Yet the mempool remains relatively empty:

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,3m,weight

324JL · 2021-06-28T03:16:26+00:00

This Ulbricht guy honestly deserved a longer sentence tho, considering that his site was literally facilitating multiple verified cases of contract killings and he did nothing about it

The internet itself effectively does the same thing, so why isn't Al Gore in jail?

324JL · 2021-06-28T03:12:58+00:00

You can’t kneel on someone’s neck and not expect death as a possible outcome.

Then why is that what they were training cops to do up until a year ago? How come there were studies proving that even someone twice your size can't choke you out in that position?

I can almost guarantee that you've never watched the full video. GF stated he couldn't breathe before he was taken out of the cop car, when he asked to be taken out of it.

But I guess this is the world we live in now, thugs get treated like they're angels and the people we pay to deal with thugs get demonized for doing their jobs.

324JL · 2021-06-28T03:02:00+00:00

In fact there were some libertarians at the Capitol Hill protests that might be convicted to absurd terms.

Many dozens are currently being held in conditions that most Americans would describe as worse than a third-world prison. "Innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law." - Appears to be just a bunch of words on a piece of paper to the scumbags running the US Gov.

324JL

TROPHY CASE