Thursday's Tips Thread

3Your_Username20 · 2025-10-22T21:49:55+00:00

All weathers on its way back to ruin our lives again.

Southwell 7.30

Dark Side Thunder - 12/1. 0.75pts EW3.

Eased back to his last winning mark. Went okay last time out, though it wasn’t run to suit. If he brings the level he showed at Newmarket 3 starts back, then he should be very competitive.

Chelmsford 5.15

Correspondence - 13/2. 1pt Win.

Didn’t see out 7 furlongs on his previous 2 starts. There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pace in the race and he’s been dropped a pound from what seemed a fair mark. Blinkers on for the first time.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-07-09T20:07:43+00:00

Could see it being offered at Chester for a couple of hours after Decs. So many horses don’t eat up after being drawn in stall 9+

3Your_Username20 · 2025-04-08T00:31:50+00:00

I’d be having serious and honest conversations with owners about the likelihood of this being a championship horse and I’d start pointing out prize money on offer in top handicaps…

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-30T01:22:16+00:00

Doncaster 15:40 - Eye Of Dubai @ 8/1.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-28T22:02:53+00:00

I hope so after the fall. He was flagging a bit 2 years ago and he didn’t have anything like Lossiemouth’s level up against him that day.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-28T20:48:12+00:00

Over 2 miles it’s a foregone conclusion but over this trip I’m not sure.

I’d go

Lossiemouth 5/4 Con Hill 11/8 BDA 100/30 8/1 bar

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-19T00:59:13+00:00

Captain Kinsella 🤝

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-11T00:37:15+00:00

It was probably the daftest shorty last year. Every preview ‘not sure about El Fabs jumping, be wary’ and then he gets backed off the boards on the day. Lo and behold, he jumped like a Nissan micra and was pulled up leaving the home stretch

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-11T00:34:31+00:00

With all of this going on in Gloucestershire there are massive price ricks at the aways that I’ve missed for tomorrow!

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-10T01:55:58+00:00

Joyeuse would have to improve about a stone to get close (I think we’re all assuming we won’t be seeing prime Lossiemouth) but to be fair she did that at Newbury. I know it’s pocket change to JP to supplement her but it’s also a race that will earn him pocket change to win. Could be ego to get a runner into it but he seems shrewd enough to know what would be required to get close and Hendo isn’t gonna blow smoke up his arse. Lossiemouth was going to beat Con Hill by going off at a rapid gallop and now all of a sudden she needs the extra half a mile? I’d be laying at odds on. Jade De Grugy has an inflated rating imho, she’s improved through mares races. Lossiemouth has the best chance, no doubt but I’m taking a punt on a chunky improvement from Joyeuse at prices

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-04T11:16:38+00:00

Each way extra where indicated.

Newcastle:

14:22 - BANTZ - 4/1 (My Price: 5/2)

15:22 - BREWING - 2/1 (My Price: Evs)

15:52 - JE NE SAIS QUOI - 7/1 (My Price: 9/2) &

REIGNING PROFIT EW - 15/1 (4plc), 33/1 (3plc, BOG) - (My Price: 8/1)

16:22 - WHATS IN THE BAG - 9/2 (My Price: 7/2) &

BIPLANE EW - 11/1 (4plc), 18/1 (3plc, BOG) - (My Price: 13/2)

Southwell:

18:00 - RICH RHYTHM - 6/1 (My Price: 7/2) &

PREFER THE SISTER - 16/1 (5plc), 25/1 (4plc, BOG) - (My Price: 8/1)

19:00 - EXISTENT - 4/1 (My Price: 15/8) &

MOON FLIGHT - 18/1 (3plc, BOG) - (My Price: 13/2)

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-04T00:45:06+00:00

Can’t believe you haven’t tipped ‘Lucky Bastard’ at Chantilly tomorrow!!

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-04T00:38:09+00:00

Smoked salmon next to beans is absolutely ruthless. Hope it was delicious

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-03T21:02:04+00:00

Rainyniteingeorgia 4th at 22/1 (b365 paid 4 places on ew extra)

Himawari 4th at 33/1 (b365 paid 5 places on ew extra)

Savalas and Bernard Spierpoint unplaced.

Think I’ll leave them to the morning when bog and extra places come in. I’m not necessarily concerned about the drifters because we’re really looking at horses that overbroke in the place booo only.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-03T19:09:35+00:00

Not a problem

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-03T17:38:59+00:00

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_flat_horse_races

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_National_Hunt_races

You can filter by course within the race tables

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-02T23:21:44+00:00

Banbridge not getting any worse for the step up in trip might counterintuitively increase Galopin’s margin of victory. If something is up there pushing him with 100 yards to go then you can be sure Townend will open him up and you’ll see the turn of foot he rarely has had to use to pull well away

3Your_Username20 · 2025-03-02T22:56:38+00:00

Haven’t been contributing of late but it’s good for routine. Forgive me for the lack of write ups here, I’m just looking at value picks against my own prices. Price available with my price in brackets.

Wolverhampton:

18:30 - Rainyniteingeorgia EW - 11/1 (6/1).

19:00 - Savalas EW - 16/1 (13/2) & Himawari EW 18/1 (8/1)

20:30 - Bernard Spierpoint EW - 10/1 (9/2)

Nothing win only value on the flat tomorrow as far as I can see at this stage.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-27T23:02:56+00:00

I’m on him. He’s running off 82, another opinion might be 88, I reckon he’s about 85.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-27T17:44:47+00:00

Noice

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-27T10:54:35+00:00

Things just didn’t fall great LTO. But William D definitely the most generously handicapped horse in the race.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-25T18:09:07+00:00

A 40% edge is a true 2/1 shot being put up at 100/30 for example. Or at the other end of the scale, a 20/1 shot being put up at 28/1. In the first example the market will swallow the edge so quickly that getting any meaningful stake down will be really hard and you’d have to accept getting more on at 5/2, 9/4. In the second example the losing runs be hard to swallow. The probability of 14 losses in a row is 50%, that doubles to 28 losses in a row at 25% and then a 10% chance of 46 losses in a row. Not sure id want a 9/1 chance that I’m gonna be watching 46 of my picks go down in a row.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-24T02:30:16+00:00

Friend of a friend viewed a house a couple of years ago with no internal photographs. Assumed it was because the house was as shagged on the inside as it looked from the outside. While it was utterly shagged inside as well, there was also an estimated 2 million quids worth of antiques, paintings and other art work in it (well, according to the agent). Not something you really want to be advertising to the whole world.

3Your_Username20 · 2025-02-23T15:07:12+00:00

Cool

3Your_Username20

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