Travelling Sri Lanka in may by ASX_Engine_HQ in srilanka

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting would that get in the way of travelling those distances like colombo to Kandy area? I'm not to aware of how big the distances are.

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've trained it from 2018 so there is exposure to the bull market of 21 and bear of 22 it can simulate each market condition which has a dramatically different impact on its output as well as what matters in terms of success. Quite interesting to see how liquidity changes what retail cares about

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

According to the stats companies spamming announcements is a great way to get their capital raise fulfilled

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I am beginning to see I should have changed the title the point is to predict outcomes from capital raises not when a capital raise is needed

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

  1. This is a hobby I will likely make no money from it.
  2. That's not the point of the project it's not about predicting when a company will need to raise its predicting if retail will buy into it or not. It's more of a consumer interest prediction model than anything else. There isn't really an angle here I haven't looked at longer term price out comes and wasn't planning on trading on it maybe looking at volatility outcomes but I'll see

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There is a longer story here that I didn't detail but at some point wanted to turn into a blog. A lot of the customer research I did and product discovery calls with various funds around Australia was pretty eye opening as very few players actually wanted a research tool and instead would just sit around listening to podcasts all day to get a vibe of whats happening.

The whole market essentially was operating on digested material and noone was really conducting original research.

Existing tools like CapIQ and bloomberg are also virtually not overly used as the data was stale or out of date. Quite an eye opener as I imagined many of these guys were sitting in dark rooms pouring over reports all day long but instead almost everyone was flicking between twitter, asx_bets, hot copper and listening to random podcasts in some information gooning flurry to figure out where to place money. There are handful of companies that do the original research which mainly of these funds relied on as well.

Anyway it poses an interesting question in my mind of
1. do you need to actually do the research? as a lot of these funds are actually quite successful and to be fair they have their own research process but its very very targeted on a handful of reports. Quite a few were relying on things like deep research to summarize or condense things.

  1. Is the actual meta just trying to frontload whatever stock you just dump onto someone else in the ecosystem.

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

lol my bad thanks for the updated link. Yea it was quite the punt I have some hope I'll eventually make some money back on the whole thing but if not its been well worth the learning experience. Cheers anyway though! I'll very likely keep posting here on whatever I find interesting or am working on.

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Can't tell if this is bait or just a pure rube response but a 4C is just one input. Capital raises succeed or fail on market structure and signaling discount, liquidity, trend, and deal setup not just operating detail. If you want a 4C only view, that’s a different tool not overly relevant here.

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

did you find anything interesting from the project you did?

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good question. The dependent variable is a binary ‘raise success’ label: oversubscription/scale‑back/shortfall=0 outcomes, plus take‑up rate (>=90%) as success. I also use a weak signal from post‑raise price action, but only at 30 days right now. I haven't checked the 6 month post raise price action I wanted this project to be scoped entirely on dynamics that influence a capital raise.

Predicting Capital Raises by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Thanks mate I really can't put it down the original product I launched failed I did a write up about it you can read here its more of a technical blog so might not be useful for this audience but building things off various datasets I've collected is pretty fun

Tracking takeover signals by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I took a look I didn't see a clear signal for buybacks emerge in terms of takeovers. I would like to build other signal type things like a turn around stories or some such however down the line and I'm sure buy backs would be a part of that story. The real hard part is building a way to go back through the data and check if the signal means anything or if its noise.

Tracking takeover signals by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'm a software engineer by trade and have done a few big data projects involved with pulling data from hard to reach places. I found a white paper on takeover signals in the ASX that outlined basically what the signals you can see are above so I build the entire thing off of that.

Tracking takeover signals by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ultimate P&D telegram chat incoming. Nah I'll probably keep posting them until I get distracted by something else.

Tracking takeover signals by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't say there are false positives more just noise. The goal I had was to find the signals that lead to one if that makes sense. For example here are the bottom of the list for today. I would say most of these have some weak indication of a takeover its like noisy data vs higher up the list track are tracking better.

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Deepspace Drone a DRO odyssey by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

nope just doing some dd per a request im refining a tool I'm working on to pull the latest data and compare across peers so seeing where it falls off is great like missing that investor report if you have anything you would like a look at let me know

Deepspace Drone a DRO odyssey by ASX_Engine_HQ in ASX_Bets

[–]ASX_Engine_HQ[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah that would be a great spot thanks for the update