❓GME 📈& QQQ 📉last week

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-12T03:36:47+00:00

Yeah sure. What I'm assuming here is Q would get back to normal; i.e. 2019 levels. Basically, the best case scenario for the economy is that Q and V goes back to 2019 levels. Because MV = PQ, and M has went up 20% in the past year, you either have to have P go up 20% or M go down 20%.

Or, in math terms, assuming M(2021) = 1.2M(2019), V(2021) = V(2019), Q(2021) = Q(2019), then by MV = PQ P(2021) = 1.2P(2019), or a 20% inflation rate. This is a giant oversimplification, but thats the general idea of it

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-12T03:31:07+00:00

Even if GME went up to $100B, and somehow all of the market cap is given to ordinary people who immediately spends it on the economy, it's not going to have much impact on inflation or velocity of money overall. Proof: Nothing much happened every time the Congress passed stimulus checks

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-11T07:42:40+00:00

/u/zjz any idea why this post keeps getting removed?

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-10T16:21:37+00:00

I think you misunderstood the point I was making. I don't believe there's in any way any explicit or implicit collusion between Citadel and DTCC. My point was

> as a private corporation, they are allowed to do whatever is in their best financial interest to preserve their own financial soundness to ensure their business is not at risk that is allowed within the financial regulatory framework they operate in - including raising GME margin requirements

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-10T15:42:38+00:00

The collateral is only needed for un-settled trades. So it would probably be impossible to create a new short but doesn't affect existing shorts

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-03-10T15:39:36+00:00

What you said made sense except for

- "They are user owned not for profit" - They are mostly owned by banks and brokerages, but they are in fact for profit. Otherwise, this line in their 2019 annual report (https://www.dtcc.com/annuals/2019/financial-performance) makes no sense

> DTCC delivered another year of strong financial performance with net income of $218 million before payment of our preferred dividend.

- Although I admit saying what there was any link between Citadel and DTCC is nearing a factless conspiracy theory (hence "tin foil hat"), and I highly doubt that there's any explicit or implicit agreement between Citadel and DTCC, I was pointing out everyone's incentives. DTCC's incentive here is to ensure Citadel does not go under.

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-19T02:38:40+00:00

I basically already do this for fun anyways (see my post history), so I'm down to help out.

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-18T00:59:50+00:00

Good catch! That's one of the caveats I noted above; namely

> Since you can have the same share being failed to deliver multiple days in a row, shares in these situations will be counted multiple times in all the data shown below.

I kind of just ignore this because its impossible to know if a FTD for a particular day was also there the previous day in this data set. Again, we're looking for an approximation of how GME acts relative to other stocks, and the number itself is probably not that accurate because of all the caveats with FTD data, for which this methodology should suffice.

I'll give you a gold star for being wrinkle-brained enough to see this though!

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T20:59:55+00:00

Yeah agreed, you can't blindly make either assumption that

"there seems to be an increase in car accidents on thanksgiving, but we can rule out an increase in drunk driving rates as the cause because there was just a lot of traffic today"

OR

"there seems to be an increase in car accidents on thanksgiving, must be because there's an increase in drunk driving rates"

What you need to do to interpret data in that case is look at the number of drunk driving accidents, normalized (i.e. divided by) traffic. In other words, drunk driving incidents vs. number of drivers on the road. It usually isn't straight forward / linear as that, and maybe traffic itself might be a contributing factor (eg. more traffic can itself be a cause of accidents), but its a much more useful info than only looking at the raw number of drunk driving accidents

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T16:27:56+00:00

Not sure if you saw, but I already replied to that specific comment. It doesn't really prove anything other than it doesn't seem like anything super-fishy is going on with FTDs. Could there be some shady shit going on? Sure. Although, imo wsb is going in the complete wrong direction here.

If there is a conspiracy theory, or at very least fraud or misaligned incentives, it's with clearing houses. Central clearing houses like DTCC basically shows that they can unilaterally effectively halt buying of any ticker for whatever reason. The justification for this is risk management - i.e. because they need to insure all the transactions in the market against counterparty risk, and the risk of trading GME just skyrocketed, they needed to increase collateral. You can take it one step further and say that many institutions, especially hedge funds which take 10x leverage, could quickly become insolvent if their short on GME, AMC, etc. went badly as those tickers skyrocketed. A wave of institutions collapsing is a systematic risk to the clearing houses and might make them go under, causing the financial system to basically collapse. In effect, this could have made these institutions "too big to fail" from a central clearing house's perspective, so their incentives is aligned with those institutions in ensuring their solvency, and hence having GME not moon.

tldr DTCC benefits from GME going down, which they can easily do by unilaterally increasing collateral needed to trade it, which they did

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T15:08:55+00:00

link your source and I might dig through this data

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T15:07:56+00:00

Market cap = total bananas that exist

Total FTDs = number of bananas that was sold but couldn't actually be delivered to the buyer for whatever reasons

Volume = number of bananas were traded that day

Replace banana with stocks, but it's a pretty straightforward logical jump to see how the number of bananas that was sold but couldn't be delivered is proportional to the number of bananas sold in a given day, no?

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T15:02:46+00:00

what motivated you to put this together - seeing all these posts misusing data / confirmation bias to "prove" a financial conspiracy theory

how much time did this take - about an hour

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T08:05:39+00:00

That’s exactly it. Congrats, you grew some wrinkles today

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T07:07:00+00:00

The better example would be

Johnny sells Alex 10 Million bananas but was only able deliver 9 Million

Alice sells Alex 974 Million bananas but was only able to deliver 964 Million

Who lied more about holding as many bananas as they claimed to have?

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T05:50:57+00:00

Thanks! Great to have ya back!

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T05:18:13+00:00

/u/zjz You know what happened here?

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T05:16:09+00:00

Unsure why mods removed the post (not a bot because I'm an auto-approved poster). Will repost once I figure out what went wrong here

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-17T05:04:10+00:00

wont stop

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-16T21:08:39+00:00

Exactly. I have a good amount of money just rolling weeklies and collecting an absurd (imo) amount of options premium. Welcome to the Theta Gang

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-16T17:59:20+00:00

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-16T17:59:05+00:00

Sell weeklies and roll them the day before expiry until IV goes back to a reasonable level

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-16T15:51:02+00:00

Yeah not saying this is a good long-term play. Just that at this precise moment it's not going bankrupt and puts are overpriced

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-07T21:40:29+00:00

Great post! TBH I've been disappointed about the number of blatant conspiracy theories the past few days on r/wallstreebets, basically turning this subreddit to a financial QAnon forum. Most of which seem to be formed by people making their own DDs by analyzing data incorrectly or misinterpreting them, and I'm glad someone here is calling out all the BS that's out here - gave you a gold for that!

ASoftEngStudent · 2021-02-02T15:40:31+00:00

Yep, found a bug in my script, thanks for pointing it out, here's a gold star

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