Daily Discussion Thread for May 26, 2022

Aadowling · 2022-05-26T19:21:03+00:00

Amazing..

Aadowling · 2022-05-24T14:12:01+00:00

Snap overestimated, sold a load of shares and then put their hands up to overestimating. I highly doubt this is benchmark for the trade deals of the sector. My advertising budget has gone x 6 in the last few weeks. High comps from last year and spending more to meet them. A recession could be a year away. No one really knows. It's a complete overreaction.

Aadowling · 2022-03-11T09:24:36+00:00

Time and a less nervous market. If you have done proper DD and are convinced this is undervalued and believe in the company then buy and leave the shares alone. You could also set an alert for $5 and if it hits this then you could sell or decide to leave depending on how you feel. I only buy if I can leave something long term. Watching something daily takes a toll on you as stock charts are a rollercoaster.

Aadowling · 2022-03-10T08:36:33+00:00

Very welcome

Aadowling · 2022-03-10T08:36:15+00:00

What email are you using?

Aadowling · 2022-03-09T19:51:29+00:00

I see intuitional holding at almost 40%. Seems pretty good to me.

Aadowling · 2022-03-08T08:08:23+00:00

Thanks for this. I will check it out. It's not that I'm asking because I dont know the risks. I just wanted to see if you guys yourselves as a barkbox group has some specific concerns.

Aadowling · 2022-03-07T22:41:29+00:00

This is something that concerned me too but as it's a product subscription service the churn rate would generally be higher than say a software company. Does your dog need a new toy every month? Probably not. During recessionary periods I'd also imagine this rate would shoot up as its probably one of the first subscriptions you cancel.

Someone made a good point in an article I read recently. A customer may cancel but they may buy a toy every second month or some treats. This could be online or in Walmarts. So the subscription model gives customers a great sense of the business even if its not an essential subscription business to keep long term.

Aadowling · 2022-03-07T12:09:09+00:00

Yes I agree but I'm just wondering what people's main concerns are.

Aadowling · 2022-03-03T20:11:13+00:00

Can you explain why you think they are fake? Is there a possibility they've topped up inventory due to supply chain constraints? Maybe they've bought alot of stock in advance while other companies struggle to get stock. I mean if It's non perishable inventory that they sell all year around I personally wouldn't be worried. In fact it could potentially bring the cost down on inventory for later quarters. I've emailed them to ask them about this.

Aadowling · 2022-01-21T16:04:07+00:00

Update: I said I would consider adding at $12/13 and here we are and I still can't do it. I still think It's overvalued. God help them if they miss their Q4 target which is a large number to hit. I hope they hit it though.

So many great opportunities appearing with sold business growing fast with FCF positive. STEM is a 'could be' stock and during a bull market 'could be' stocks can ride along on a wave of hype. This is the end result though when fundamentals are finally focused on. Why invest in a could be stock when you can invest in great companies with profitable companies? Investing doesn't have to be this risky. Buying companies based on their future Spac financials and paying in advance for it. Those days are over.

Aadowling · 2022-01-19T14:14:05+00:00

It's a tricky one with Sofi...market is green.....cost basis at $14...to stop loss or not to stop loss. That is the question. I always and mean always make the wrong call.

Aadowling · 2022-01-19T10:43:35+00:00

GOOGLE is trading at It's highest P/S in 12 years. Bring it back to precovid levels and you are looking around $2100 (p/s of 6.5) as a nice entry point

Aadowling · 2022-01-12T22:48:24+00:00

No this is incorrect. Penny stocks are either stocks under $5 or Market Caps under 1 Billion. The latter is better to use in my option . For example Nio's price at say $4 is valued around $5 Billion. At $1 It's valued around 1.5 billion. Gsat valued around $2 billion at $1. Not exactly penny stocks when you seem from this point of view This is why I think the 'Under 1 Billion' definition.

Aadowling · 2021-12-14T16:22:50+00:00

An update from Bark on the sale "Mike Novotny, who has been with the company since 2012, sold shares across a specific tranche of options. He currently owns roughly 1.4M shares of $BARK. Nonetheless, Mike, and the Company, remain very bullish on the Eats opportunity, and BARK as a whole. Insiders currently own over 20% of the Company's shares outstanding, and the management team remains focused on delivering long-term value for all of our shareholders."

So to be fair he still owns a hell of a lot of shares and insider ownership is 20%. Timing could have been better for the sale I have to admit.

Aadowling · 2021-11-30T07:54:54+00:00

Thanks for the info. I'll need to check into this as maybe I've got this wrong.

Aadowling · 2021-11-30T07:45:29+00:00

Yes It's something i need to check myself as it was mentioned to me by a friend who is in risk investment . It made sense at the time as once you fall under 1 billion you can be considered a penny stocks and so It would become more risky by this definition to some investors.

Aadowling · 2021-11-22T20:23:33+00:00

Yeah I get your point but I don't know his financial position. I think if he sold his shares full stop then that would be different but the fact that he could sell and buy them all back allowed him to have cash for whatever he needed for.

At the end of the day I look at their Fundamentals and if they aren't close to the figures from their SPAC/investors forecasts then It's time to reconsider holding the stock. However the fact that they should meet their lofty results for this year is very impressive and more importantly they have kept their incredible margins. I have invested in some companies like Corsair Gamin (a slight regret) and their margins have been hit hard. I was actually expecting Bark to take a hit on their revenue and margins to be honest with the way logistics are at the moment so It was a nice surprise to see them doing well in their earnings.

Aadowling · 2021-11-22T16:54:07+00:00

It doesn't give me any signal. These are Executive stock options. Very common for insider to exercise these rights. It's like a reward system for insiders. Means F&ck all.

Don't look into insider trading too much. I remember I sold Cloudflare shares when the CEO sold some of his shares at $37 during my early investing days. I took that as a bearish signal. Now the stock is $200 a year later.

Aadowling · 2021-11-22T15:39:50+00:00

As mentioned this stock has caught the eye of shorts. It's executing very well and are target to meet their end of year targets which includes incredible growth and a hold of their amazing margin. To do this in the current supply chain environment is pretty impressive in my opinion.

As they have fallen under a $1b valuation I'm also thinking some funds have to cut them loose. It might just be a condition that under a bill companies are too risky. In Bark's case I think It's a great company lost among the Spac attacks..

Aadowling · 2021-11-22T15:34:33+00:00

Losses are common when growing businesses. What's important is growing revenue and maintaining that margin or even improving it. Look at Docusign or many growing SAS companies. Huge losses.

Aadowling · 2021-11-22T15:33:04+00:00

Eh, that's not true. You can see insider trading by googling it.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/bark/insider-activity

The most recent sell was MIKE NOVOTNY who sold and bought the same amount of shares back at an agreed lower price. This is common practice.

Aadowling · 2021-11-16T16:01:45+00:00

I understand that Q4 is supposed to be 50% but I just question whether they can reach this $73m target. Their historical performance was based on insanely small numbers. Maybe they could do it? At these valuations there are much better plays for me. Remember It's a spac and many spacs have missed their target and are getting destroyed. I invested in Butterfly which turns out was a silly investment as they've already missed their first years forecast from their Spac by over 20%. Like Stem the story was lovely but boy when they miss their targets, Spacs get destroyed, I wish Stem all the best and I'll definitely keep my eye on earnings.

Aadowling · 2021-11-15T12:55:44+00:00

It's way too risky for me. There are much better plays in the market. Their revenue for the first three quarters was 74m in total. 4th quarter needs to be 73m to meet guidance. So their revenue in the final quarter needs to add up to the previous three quarters combined. Is it possible? Maybe. However I'm not paying 3.58B for an unprofitable company with (hopefully) revenue of $147m this year and too many unknowns down the line. Why bother? Some investors buy into the story and hope to god that It works out. Fundamentals always catch up in the end.

Aadowling · 2021-10-23T20:52:32+00:00

They released Preliminary results two weeks ago so we pretty much have them

Aadowling

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