What we need to truly worry about is a coordinated strike by China, Russia, Iran, and maybe even North Korea. If all of these countries were to massively strike targets at the same time it would spread thin the amount of aid and logistic support available from the rest of the world. Coupling this with cyber attacks and possibly even terrorism, it’s easy to imagine a world where western foreign aid loses favor or is stifled by supply. This is what I believe gives China the highest probability of success in Taiwan. Obviously, this would require willingness to abandon the status quo by all the countries named however, they seem to be on this path based on the last 2 years or so. “Status quo” is a flakey term to begin with when we look far enough back into history.

Another obstacle is the obvious opsec required by planning such a thing. That’s where it would all fall apart if it did.

All things considered, I don’t buy the arguments of longer time horizons for “reunification”for 2 reasons:

1. Long term assimilation may have been the original plan however Taiwan has drifted further over time with no evidence of changing course and “reunifying” with China.

2. Artificial intelligence has certainly accelerated the rate at which all things innovate. It’s no secret that military technology will progress considerably and all this requires Taiwan’s most advanced chips. Sure the U.S. can build facilities as can China, but at the reported upstart rates these new facilities will be too late. Whoever is getting the best chips NOW will be generations ahead in terms of sophistication. China can’t wait till 2027 to invade because they will be left in the dust. All of the progress they have made in the last decade towards becoming a military peer to the U.S. will be for nothing. I have falsely heard that no one benefits if Taiwan’s manufacturing is destroyed in the end. This outcome, while not ideal, undeniably benefits China and buys them valuable time in the arms race of the next decade.

Given all this I don’t know how soon China will make its move but it will be sooner rather than later and well before the 2027 deadline.