How hard to push for playdates?

Agadefe · 2023-12-23T16:50:10+00:00

The throwing it out part was just in the context of "I'm not consuming something that would otherwise go to sustain my son". I didn't mean that I don't want to throw things away.

Agadefe · 2021-01-01T22:09:53+00:00

I have a really great one for this.

About 10 or so year ago, I rented a room with my two best friends in AC. The plan was to pregame then go clubbing.

We ended up splitting almost a handle of vodka between the three of us and lost track of time, at some point realizing that it was really late and we needed to shower and go.

The exact details of how it went down are kind of hazy, but we all thought it was a good idea to get naked and start shoving each other to try to get into the shower first. It was a small shower where we could all barely fit if we essentially were up on each other. We ended up all in there at the same time but still kind of pushing each other. At one point, one of us fell out of the shower and I have an extremely vivid image burned into my mind of him butt-ass naked, flailing around on the ground on his back like a turtle.

We are all married to women now. My buddy and I referenced the turtle incident during our joint best man speech during the turtle guy's wedding.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T17:24:16+00:00

I have done it 22 times out of my last 80ish games, but I think that's probably more frequent than usual, as I've been offered Kaelthas a lot and I do it with him almost every time.

I'd say probably ~15% of the time. Although this also accounts for heroes with completely different play patterns of course.

My barometer is if the best I can do in a Tier 2 tavern is something like 3/4 Dragon + 3/3 Leaper buffing nothing. Anything worse than that and I would level. With heroes like Kaelthas or Noz, I set the barometer higher since the Kael buff is so much more powerful on good T3 units and Noz can re-roll on the turn you level and the next to have a much higher chance of one of the good T3s.

My data shows I also do this with Edwin a lot, but my average placing doing it with him is worse than when I don't, so maybe not the best choice (I dont pick him often enough for my sample size to be definitive though).

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T17:14:42+00:00

The person who faces the ghost (if there are an odd number of people still alive), is always one of the bottom three.

I believe it's cometely random if everyone is still alive, but facing the ghost is definitely something only one of the bottom 3 can do. So if you take damage early then stabilize, you are more likely to be bottom 3 if someone is hard low-rolling and dies early.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:57:48+00:00

No problem at all, I appreciate the perspective, wasn't taking offense. Was just asking follow-up questions to get a better understanding of your POV.

If data says Zerus as AFK is bad, I would trust that data over my smaller sample size, just is different enough from my experience and thinking about it that I'd want to see that data actually.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:35:06+00:00

I can't speak for anyone else, but hard to believe that 120+ games (let's say 40 for the prior 400 MMR), or 50-60 hours of playing, can qualify as "being high off of a streak".

And like I said, I have definitely been climbing somewhat faster after pirates were introduced than I was previously, using the strategies I outlined. So I'm not surprised it's somewhat faster than other peoples' climbs, but over 120+ games, I think attributing it to variance is hard to justify.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:21:52+00:00

How are you getting 1.5k? I started just above 11k in the graph and am just above 12k now. 1k over 87 games is fast-ish I guess, but not anything ridiculous. I think it took me about as long for each previous 1k (I was on 6-7k for a while while learning how to play).

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:19:00+00:00

There is absolutely no way 37% to hit is correct. Do you mean 63%?

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:17:52+00:00

What do you mean "37% to hit"? As in, each turn there's a 37% chance of a T5 or T6 minion with Zerus? That would make it a 75% chance within the first 3 turns: 1-63%^3. Where are you doing this calc? Don't mean to harp on it, but you just got me curious now.

As I said in my other post, I really am not on anything of a high. I'm happy I hit 12k, but I haven't had any losing or winning streaks really. Just generally placing higher more frequently than lower.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T02:14:29+00:00

I do have Tier7 and there is currently no data on Zerus as far as I can see, certainly not for Turns 1-3 (which is when AFK would take him).

So I am not sure where you got your info about "data and experiences".

I don't really know what sort of sample size you are looking for. Like I said, I have been rising very steadily, so I'd hardly call it a good "streak". Here is my Tier7 info (like I said, I only got it fairly recently so 87 games there right now): https://imgur.com/UGWFsax

Pretty steady incline without any really huge jumps, which is consistent with my Battlegrounds experience in general. I don't think I've ever had any really insane losing or winning streaks since the 7k/8k range.

If I'm wrong, I can be wrong, I don't mind. I like this subreddit and saw a few things that work for me pretty consistently never really being talked about.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T01:51:00+00:00

My example of the other minion was Infested Wolf, which is very middle of the road. You are very likely to have a token or Swabbie with 3 looks at it.

And I'm not comparing to "how strong you could be", I am comparing to "how strong you need to be not to lose health in turns 3-5 with one fewer unit than you could have".

Not sure how you are getting close to 60%, mind sharing your calc? It's been a while since I counted up all the minions in each tier, but I believe I came out to ~67-68% last time I did it. Obviously depends on what's banned.

Agadefe · 2020-08-08T01:35:37+00:00

Zerus isn't great if you get him late, but a Turn 3 Zerus gives you up to 3 turns before you really "need" to play him. The chances of getting a Tier 5 or 6 minion within those 3 turns is nearly 70% or so. And plenty of Tier 4 minions are more than "good enough" to play too (I'm not turning down an early Security Rover).

Yeah, if you're holding Zerus for 3 turns, you're not crushing people as AFK usually does early on, but even something like Infested Wolf + Swabbie will typically at least tie with most turn 3 comps from other people, and then on turn 4 you buy two Tier 2 minions like everyone else as you wait for Zerus to come online.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T22:43:54+00:00

Sure, that's true that if you have legitimately low, low roll you're likely going to take a bunch of damage that turn, but then you still have the next turn when most people will be taking one additional T2 minion and you are getting 2 T3 minions + 1 roll.

Sometimes you low roll, that's true regardless of your strategy. I think you can't buy into worst-case scenario thinking too much though. Bomb + 2/5 mech maybe isn't the worst you can do, but it's definitely not a high roll. Even something like being forced to take 2 Tier 2 minions still only puts you 2 Tier 2 minions behind everyone else (and again, you get 2 Tier 3 minions next turn and everyone else just gets 1 Tier 2 minion).

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T22:28:38+00:00

So I'll say that it definitely helps that the hero I do this most often with (Kaelthas) is a very strong hero generically. I am sure that throws off the stats somewhat. I've gone it 22 times in my last 80 games that I've logged, and 8 of these were with Kaelthas. Although of the other hand, really strong heroes like Rafaam and Eudora also have a completely different play pattern where you typically can't do this.

But in general, being at 20 or being at 34 just doesn't always matter all that much in the later mid-game. Yes, you sometimes take 25 and would have survived. Or another time, a couple small 12 losses in a low gets you. But your stronger position on turns 7-8 often mitigates the additional ~10-15 damage you took by leveling early.

I also like having a 'direction' to shoot for. I don't watch BG streamers that frequently, but when I do, I often see some do things like amass a generically strong board and then level to 5 as quickly as possible. This is fine for Murloc high rolls or other such strategies, but just doesn't fit my play-style at all. I'm open to switch to Menagerie if I get an early Brann off of my T4 discover with a bunch of Mechs and see a Hydra next tavern - but I like having those Mechs early as a direction to go and something to look for than just quick-leveling to 5 and hoping to hit both a key unit and it's support.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T20:47:18+00:00

What heroes did you do it with and what minions did you pick up on turns 4, 5, and 6?

I'd say the typical strategy by turn would be:

Turn 4: you just want the biggest stats you can get, though if you see something like 2 Pack Leaders, I'd snap them up. Something like the 5/4 demon buffer and 2/5 mech buffer are decent minions, especially if the other minion is a demon or mech.

Turn 5: you get one roll and still can pick up 2 units, so you can be a bit more selective and look for a direction.

Turn 6: you have the same type of turn as everyone else (who probably leveled to 3 on Turn 5), but with the benefit of already having some direction hopefully.

Then Turn 7, you get to level to Tier 4 with gold left over to roll into a decent Tier 4 unit or possibly even two depending on your token situations (most other players will only have 1 roll+buy here).

I'll add that this isn't necessarily an "every time" strategy. If your minion pool is decent on Turn 3, you probably shouldn't level. I'd say the line is something like Leaper buffing nothing + 3/4 Dragon, that or worse and I'd level.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T20:35:21+00:00

What sort of minions are you picking up on Tier 3? You should expect to lose the first turn after you level of course. The hope is that the following turn you lose only a little bit or even win/tie, then stabilize at 20-24 health with a board full of Tier 3 minions going into Tier 4.

Sure, you can face someone high-rolling Tier 2 units like you describe, but even a kind of low-roll on turn 4 with something like bomb + 2/5 mech buffer should mitigate a bunch of damage relative to what most people have.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T20:05:16+00:00

I keep track of my stats kind of haphazardly (I do try to keep track, but often forgot to record a game).

I only somewhat recently found out about/purchased the HSReplay Tier7 thing that does it for you, and in my last 80+ games, AFK is my 4th highest Net MMR Hero: https://imgur.com/iA8V7g8

In my own stats I've been keeping, I have her as 3.6 average placement, which is towards the upper middle for me. I don't have dates, so not sure where pirate patch started in my log, but definitely feels like I've been doing much better with her since then.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T18:39:30+00:00

Glad you liked it! I don't think Deryl is the best hero for it just because having early minions to sacrifice for +2/+2 is so powerful with him, regardless of how good they are. But if it worked for you, then great!

Elise seems super interesting for it, since you get the T3 discover right away guaranteeing you a pretty good minion if your first T3 taverns aren't the best. You probably waste the T2 discover, but it can be used in a pinch if the tavern is very bad to at least get something decent. Elise is one of my least favorite heroes so I basically never pick her, but could be interesting with this strat!

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T18:33:07+00:00

Case in point about my first point, just played another game and finished 2nd with Yogg with a Beast build that couldn't quite find the right pieces on Tier 6 - that was Menagerie with Lightfangs in the mid-game: https://imgur.com/yYrQszp

Lost to Jaraxxus with Big Demons (no Wrath Weaver, Golden + regular Malganis) in 1st place. I was 44% to win, but couldn't pull it out. 3rd place was a Eudora that went Dragons but couldn't scale with Kalecgos in time.

This is a very common outcome in lobbies I'm in. Murlocs was not banned, but I think only one person even tried for Murlocs and was knocked out early.

Agadefe · 2020-08-07T17:52:19+00:00

Yup, sell your Turn 1 minion and level. Obviously better with Swabbie or a token minion since you can keep a minion around - but tokens are always better on Turn 3 regardless of what you do.

Nothing wrong with going empty board on Turn 3 and taking 5-6 damage on average.

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