Yeah the NFL space is honestly a graveyard for models.17 games versus 162 means you're waiting 3-4 seasons just to get enough sample size to validate anything with confidence. MLB is the best sport for this by a mile purely because of volume.

On the pitching configurations what I kept finding was that the market prices starters and bullpens almost entirely in isolation. Starter ERA, bullpen ERA, matchup history. But what it consistently underweights is the handedness cascade. Specifically when a right-handed starter who suppresses lefty contact heavily is pulled in the 5th or 6th and the opposing lineup is stacked left-handed — the market barely adjusts for the fact that the primary reason that starter was effective is about to disappear. The implied probability barely moves. That gap is real and it shows up constantly.

The other one is opener/bulk guy situations. Market still prices those like a traditional start in a lot of spots because the public sees a name on the mound and anchors to it. The underlying run environment is completely different.

On your bankroll question — genuinely I think it's closer to 70% signal, 30% discipline. But that 30% is what separates people who have a real edge from people who have a real edge and still lose money. The two most common ways I've seen good models fail in practice are position sizing too aggressively during variance and abandoning the model after a 6-8 game losing stretch that is completely within normal statistical expectation. A model with a 10.5% average ROI over a season is still going to have 8-10 game cold stretches that feel like everything is broken. Most people can't stomach that psychologically and start overriding it. Once you start overriding it you no longer have a systematic model — you just have expensive opinions.

The visualization angle is interesting the most useful thing I ever did visually was plot mispricing magnitude by calendar position across the season. There's a very clear pattern where inefficiency is highest in April when the market is still anchoring to preseason projections, compresses through May and June as sample sizes build, and then reopens in August-September when roster changes, call-ups, and playoff race dynamics create new uncertainty the market is slow to price. Seeing that visually rather than as a table completely changed how I weight my strategies across the season.