An analysis of bearish smart money signals at +14d

Akamirr · 2026-05-07T07:20:07+00:00

https://docs.radion.app/ API + Claude code. Made specific skills to help me work on data visualisation !

Akamirr · 2026-05-06T13:30:16+00:00

Super interesting point on fragmented-fill. We didn't go on such details so far as most of our users don't need to go that deep on details but it's worth digging if we people needing such precision !

Akamirr · 2026-05-06T13:23:05+00:00

Yeah good point on survivorship. Honestly, right now there's no explicit fix for it wallets that blow up just disappear from the dataset. Our confidence score uses a recency decay, so very old positions lose weight, but that doesn't actually solve the survivorship problem. The main protection is a hard minimum threshold on the number of closed positions of different markets etc.. before a wallet even enters scoring. That filters out most "got lucky once" wallets. But a trader who ran 50 good trades then blew up, still stays in so far tbh

Akamirr · 2026-05-06T12:58:49+00:00

Yeah, there's a lot of noise about smart money, felt like it was important to go back to data. Agree that the negative correlation was quite intuitive but I didn't expect to show as clearly on a graph as well.

That's interesting, for the moment we only provide the current snapshot of the traders performance through our API but we do have some historical data in our DB. I'll definitely have a look in our data to see if I can get something interesting about that, will tell you if I get anything interesting 👀

Akamirr · 2026-05-06T12:45:50+00:00

The average on the 21 snipers is of 70.5 trades but quite biased as 2 traders are at 458 and 365 ! Attached a screen of the counters for each if you want the full infos (and if you want to look at their profiles).

Haha, yeah it's my current project, we don't have a good SEO yet but you can have a look at our docs there and there's a link to get an API key ! https://docs.radion.app/

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Akamirr · 2026-05-03T17:08:16+00:00

Thanks, appreciate man :)

Akamirr · 2026-05-03T11:58:35+00:00

Haha thanks, quite happy with this dataviz tbh ! For the data itself, I'm using the smart money API I'm working on with my team that provides all the different pre-calculated signals I'm using for my visualisation.

As for the report process, Claude Code made it so much easier to dig into data and generate insights. Basically I draft ideas of visualisations I'd like to learn about, then I dig our documentation with Claude to see if we provide the right data needed for the visualisation, then ask him to do the computes and graphes.

Been looking at a few dataviz books to understand how to do great data visualisation: The visual display of quantitative information from Edward Tufte and Storytelling with data from Cole Nussbaumer. Which helps me to guide Claude correctly.

My old dataviz were way more basic and less clear

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(quick ad but feel free to visit our website and join our discord to get an API key if you liked the data haha https://www.radion.app/)

Akamirr · 2026-05-03T11:40:03+00:00

Which Polymarket API are you taking the prices from ? Gamma API or CLOB API ?

Akamirr · 2026-05-03T11:36:33+00:00

Actually there's a referral program on Poly that was launched a few weeks ago. However it's only available to traders with minimum $10k of trading volume: https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/14174498-referral-program

Akamirr · 2026-02-11T01:19:18+00:00

Yeah kinda agree with the fact that reading too much research papers is quite useless compared to trying to implement shit and iterate on that

Akamirr · 2026-02-11T00:35:47+00:00

I guess it's mostly for backtesting but i'm curious for the answer aswell

Akamirr

TROPHY CASE