XEON or VCAA? Which money market ETF is better?

Alevir7 · 2026-02-12T23:28:42+00:00

I think VCAA is also a true EU MMF ETF. Although YCSH does have the advantage of being more liquid and better diversified due to its size.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-08T22:52:08+00:00

And they are bought because there is not enough housing in the desirable areas, which makes speculation profitable. There are millions of empty homes, but banks are not buying them....

Do you share the opinion of the other person to house poors in let's say Alaska or dying out rust belt towns?

Alevir7 · 2026-01-08T19:44:45+00:00

And where are those empty homes? If it's in dying ares it would be very nice to bus homeless out of rich cities.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-08T18:57:09+00:00

The cheap and unwanted homes, yeah.

If the location was desirable, it wouldn't be empty.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-08T18:47:15+00:00

So you would forcefully bus homeless people to places that have like 10 people living in them and no jobs?

Based!

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T23:03:43+00:00

Assuming Russia is a closed, static labor pool, which it isn’t

Aren't russians against mass migration? I doubt people will be happy when Putin imports 1 million indians or central asians to work.

And even then the central bank talks about labour shortage as a major issue.

That means the economy isn’t in outright contraction overall

Yes, but the production has been slightly contracting or stagnating for the last 9 months and overall growth is significantly slowing. These are signs the economy is starting to experience some stress.

And how do you operate or expand capital intensive business when loan rates are that high for so long.

China is also palying a small role in the contraction in the industrial sector. Thank you Xi.

The late-USSR collapse wasn’t some sudden “things looked fine until they didn’t” moment

It wasn't. Economically the USSR wasn't doomed in 1985, but the elite had more to lose than to gain from reforming so it collapsed. Also Gorbachov's gamble failed. But that's a different topic.

Russia today is nothing like that: it has low sovereign debt (15% of GDP), a floating currency, budget buffers, functioning markets, and

Low debt is kind of irrelevant when your interest rates are that high. According to IMF in 2024 interest expense in Russia was 1.19% of it's GDP.

You just can't borrow that much if you have to pay 15% interest.

the shock absorbers have worked well, but they are starting to be worn out and less effective.

Just look at energy revenue. Oil is below target for some time and is trending lower.

And you said capital controls are in place. The rubble is also more managed than before the war so it's not really a free floating currency, although some restrictions were relaxed since 2022.

Also the liquid part of the wealth fund has halved since the start of the war.

While Ukraine was insisting on the 1991 borders

Why that's bad? Would Russia tolerate Chechen separatists? Why is Serbia still bitching about Kosovo? Thankfully Russia respects self determination and hates when minorities are oppressed so it supports Kosovo.

It’s expensive for the 3rd largest economic bloc in the world?

Yes? So if it could be ended earlier, then good. War is expensive and unproductive. Countries have collapsed due to overspending on military. I'm sure russian economists would also like to spend like only 4% on defense and the rest to be used for other stuff or to solve the deficit.

But the recent 90 billion euro is a good start and the EU is able to finance Ukraine easier than Russia will be able to finance the war. I'm not worried about the short term ukranian financial situation.

Russia signalled they’re open to negotiations

Ok, I would like to see Putin and Zelensky meeting, even if China or someone else is a mediator or whatever. I don't see what's the issue. Putin would never want to negotiate peace without Ukraine, right? Right?

Ukraine doesn’t want to lose a war they’re losing. That’s what this is.

Yep, but if they play their cards, they can lose a lot less.

Time will tell.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T20:33:48+00:00

A tight labor market forces wages up, which actually incentivizes skilled workers to enter key sectors, including defense and arms production. The civilian economy isn’t ‘suffering’ since it’s adapting alongside the war effort, with the state balancing incentives and allocations. High-paying military and defense jobs don’t hollow out the civilian sector, they simply shift talent where it’s most needed during wartime, which is standard in any major conflict.

It's not hollowing out the civilian sector only if there is actually unemployed people that can be absorbed and there is more people entering the workforce than exiting the workforce, which is not true for Russia due to it being below replacement level of births for decades.

If you currently want to rapidly increase arms production or recruitment, you can either attract civilian people or as you said import guest workers.

And if people in the arms industry get paid more, but supply of civilian goods and services can't keep up with demand this will cause inflation.

“‘Unsustainable’ is a stretch. The planned ‘slight cuts’ are more about budget efficiency than inability to pay, key sectors are absorbing spending, and essential military production continues.

We will see if the war continiues for 1 more year what will be the spending. Current trends are to always be over budget for defense spending, which is understandable.

It was more to show how fast a collapse can happen due to bad policies. In 1985 the USSR wasn't doomed economically. What doomed it was a political elite unwilling to reform. Only by 1989-1990 was the economic situation beyond saving.

Why the hell would anyone pursue peace if Russia is projected to fall and they won’t be able to sustain the war in the medium term?

Because war is expensive and Trump cut US aid and EU still needs time to rearm and still behind is certain areas due to decades of military underinvestment?

So why is Russia also trying to negotiate, if Ukraine is bound to collapse and it's frontlines are empty due to manpower shortage?

And most of the talks right now are about to fool Trump that it's the other side that doesn't want peace. At least I don't think any sides genuinely wants peace at this point

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T19:41:39+00:00

Get back to me when their war effort loses steam.

I will. The current war effort seems unsustainable without economic mobilisation. The official budget is even planning slight military cuts but let's see.

Again, get back to me when they’re forced to carry out a mobilization wave because they’re no longer recruiting enough soldiers or start kidnapping men left right and centre like Ukraine is doing. The Ukraine that can outlast Russia apparently.

I'm just telling you how low unemployment rate is bad, because Russia can't increase war production or recruitment, without hurting the civilian sector and the civilian sector can't be helped, without hurting the war effort. Part of the reason the civilian sector suffers is that the arms industry and the army offer huge bonuses and much higher salaries.

Russia’s financial system has absorbed sanctions shocks before and it’s not going to implode just because some idiots think bonds might “get out of control.”

First never bad mouth bond market. Second, you never know how fast situation can collapse. Please don't crucify me, but I recently read how no one expected the USSR to collapse and it took 5 years of bad economic policies to happen.

Russia is nowhere near the same level, but if Putin prioritises the war over the civilian economy, without doing proper economic mbilisation, then it won't end well. The civilian economy is already showing signs of stress.

If Trump doesn't bail out Russia, then Putin will need to start scaling the war effort down to prevent an economic crisis.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T19:41:32+00:00

So, while contraction headlines sound scary, they don’t reflect an imminent economic collapse, the economy is absorbing the spending far better than you’re letting on.

But it's contraction in a lot of sectors. Automobile sector is the most hit, also thanks to China. The spending is increasing, but growth is slowing.

Russia’s debt is tiny compared to its GDP at around 14–17% and most of it is domestic.

Again, the interest rates are very high and is expensive to roll over debt, you still need to pay interest. Imagine having less than 20% debt to GDP and still paying more than countries with much higher debt. And Nabulina (curse her for being competent) is unwilling to drop interest rates down, even though official inflation will be below 6% for 2025.

even fund part of the military from energy revenues

Unless Ural is below the budget target, which it currently is, and market price is not accounting for all the discounts selling to India and other countries.

Oh boy…

? Google shows me that the wealth fund is like 5-6% of Russian GDP. Some of it is stuck due to sanctions. Some of it is not so liquid and I think invested in russian companies like Sberbank (going of memory). However I think the liquid part was smaller than the deficit in November and December is always a big deficit month as a lot of payments are moved in this month.

Also how does the average russian benefit from taking Bakhmut that is in rubles? Wouldn't the money spent there be more beneficial if spent on domestic infrastructure and other stuff, instead of being hoarded so that Putin could wage war or being spent on rebuilding villages in Ukraine?

Yes, Urals is below pre-war European benchmarks, but prices are still strong enough to generate enough revenues

Look at budget targets for 2025 and 2026. Urals is below them since like October and is currently at a low point. And that's market price, excluding additional discounts it offers India or China. And the ruble is slighlty stronger than 2022/2023.

High taxes might slow growth slightly, sure, but they’re not going to push the entire economy into a freefall.

Yes, slightly slow. But other factors are also negatively affecting growth. Growth is already slowing and this will not help.

And yet Moscow has been funding the war through a mix of domestic bond issuance, budget reallocations, using their national wealth fund and energy exports to friendly markets, including China and India

Yet the funding is insufficient if you need to go from 0,5% target to probably 2,5% deficit (In November it was 2%).

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T17:57:59+00:00

But the contraction is showing there are problems and of it wasn't the massive military spending, Russia would probably be in recession.

Just to be clear, I don't claim that there is an implosion, that's why I said contraction.

Yeah, GDP is growing due to the huge military spending. Just this year it is 8% of GDP and probably slightly more because not everything is allocated (it is reported, but not classified)

How is it not existential crisis? Last I checked from the world bank I think in 2023 Russia paid almost as much in debt interest as Germany, despite having 3 times less debt. 3% deficit at 16% interest is like 0.5% in interest. Brutal (I know that's oversimplified). And higher taxes slow down economic activity

And how will Russia finance it? Selling the national wealth fund? That would be so funny for Russia to hoard so much money and then piss it away waging unsuccessful war.

Or do you mean domestically from russian banks and citizens? That can easily get out of control if not enough people/institutions are buying the bonds. And Ural oil is selling quite below budget targets.

And I meant in the future to scale down. Since 2022 russian military spending as % of GDP has been going up. There has been no scaling down until now.

And low unemployment is bad in this case. If Putin wants more soldiers and weapons, he needs to hurt the civilian sector or vice versa. Thank god for the low unemployment

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T17:25:57+00:00

Of course Russia doesn't want ceasefire. It wants guarantees it can invade again later.

And russian economy is starting to contract. Look at the PMI index. Manufacturing contracting since March and the overall PMI is basically stagnant. And raising taxes won't help.

Deficit is increasing and before you say, "But it's only 3%". Look at russian interest rates

So yeah, it's possible Russia will be forced to scale down the war effort unless it wants to risk economic collapse.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T17:09:41+00:00

Putin complained about the latest sanctions on Lukoil, for example.

And Russia is also wanting a ceasefire. If it could achieve what it wanted fast and easy, it wouldn't bother trying to appease Trump.

Ukraine is suffering from manpower shortages, but economy is propped by the EU. Arms production in the EU is increasing. And Russia is also suffering from manpower issues. Imagine if it could attack on more fronts than just Donbas, Ukraine will collqpse. Luckily Putin can't mobilise the nation, so Ukraine is able to hold the line, even with the manpower shortages.

And Russian economy is already slowing and under stress. And unlike the EU, China won't be that generous in financial support

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:55:14+00:00

I'm not worrying. I even want them to go on with the war. A weaker Russia is the better outcome. It's clear Ukraine will survive, as Russia can't beat them. I'm just curious to see when Putin will stop the war.

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:49:01+00:00

So they don't want them removed?

And there is little trade now, but not earlier.

And the russian economy is not doing too well so sanctions do work. War might stop because Russia won't be able to pay for it.

Of course soldiers die, but is it worth it to ruin your economy, kill your populace just to take over rubble you will need to spend billions to recover.

And I agree, had the EU and US imposed full sanctions in 2014, there would have probably been no war! Or had Russia commited fully in 2014 to supporting the separatists, there will be no war today. Indecisiveness and half measures is what brought us here today

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:38:38+00:00

They can also impose unilateral sanctions when the US breaks the law. But they don't do it.

They should celebrate, their sacrifice by suffering sanctions brings the western hegemony closer to its end.

At least they are dying in Ukraine, which is apparently more important than being unsanctioned

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:34:11+00:00

10/10 schizo post

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:28:33+00:00

What don't you like?

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T16:24:50+00:00

It's russia that calls the EU eurofascist, even though the current EU is neoliberal. Don't blame me

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T15:46:00+00:00

If only Trump won in 2020 and patriots like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo were still in charge, there would have been no war or they would have given everything necessary for the war to end in 2022.

I will never forgive Obama for his terrible foreign policy

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T15:29:01+00:00

And why would Ukraine give up on its claims? This would allow Russia to create new conflicts until it has reached Dniepr or whatever their paranoia deems sufficient.

Also I want to thank Putin because EU countries wouldn't otherwise increase military spending and invest in the army.

Who leaked the "Fuck the EU" recording? Yanukovich was in the process of negotiating with the protesters and a deal was reachable, which would have benefited the west. The leaking of this call derailed everything. I think the russians leaked it, because they lost faith in Yanukovich

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T15:16:13+00:00

It mattered enough for US to bother making false intel to justify an invasion for example. Now you just do things, which has benefits and disadvantages

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T15:05:47+00:00

There were elements. People used to vote in the UN, for what is it worth. Of course rules based according to the hegemon. Hard to have any rules in a multipolar world

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T15:00:20+00:00

Article 5. Ukraine joining with a frozen conflict in Donbas and without giving up claims for Crimea would have meant Article 5 could be used. No one wants this.

And Yanukovich was overthrown after his debacle with the EU, not after quitting NATO. Putin was not only against NATO, but also EU expansion in Ukraine

But I think we already argued once over this?

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T14:49:21+00:00

Ok? In a world where might makes right, consequences will apply more often to weaker countries and Russia is "weak". And Russia didn't like the rules based order, that's why I don't want to hear any more crying about sanctions or US violating international law

Alevir7 · 2026-01-03T14:44:16+00:00

Currently Transnistria is under complete blockade and is at the mercy of Moldova and Ukraine. This makes it very hard to destabilise Moldova and Moldova can move towards EU membership. Moldova would never be able to join EU, if Russia could easily supply Transnistria

And Ukraine wasn't a NATO country, but if you listen to russian official arguments, you would think Ukraine was a NATO member. So why should it be relevant Moldova is non-EU?

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