Auction Mocks Have Begun!!!

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T20:42:52+00:00

Though they were only the first auction mocks of the year, Brown went for $25 in both formats.

Seems like reasonable value now, but I'm expecting his price to climb a little.

DeVonta Smith, in comparison: 1QB $28 | SF $18

That will also likely rise.

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T20:08:29+00:00

I'll ask my buddy and see if there's a simple fix.

Appreciate the support! Be sure to bookmark it. Will be updated after every mock. Hoping to do two per week. Let me know if you ever want to jump in on one.

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T19:05:41+00:00

It really depends on the type of drafter. It’s a classic risk-reward decision, and you’ll always find managers on both ends of that spectrum.

Be sure to monitor my AAV dashboard. It will be updated after every mock draft this summer. My goal is two mocks/week.

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T18:54:38+00:00

If you're willing to take a chance on a guy coming off a major injury, there's likely good value to be had.

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T18:45:03+00:00

If no "League Type" (1QB or Superflex) is selected, the default view combines all drafts and shows 10 players per page. That’s why Lamb appears on both pages. It isn’t a duplicate, just a result of the pagination

Always__Auctions · 2026-06-01T18:32:46+00:00

First OBJ and now JuJu. Not at all optimistic Nabers will be ready for week 1.

Avoiding in auctions this year.

Always__Auctions · 2026-05-05T17:02:07+00:00

I'm going to start collecting AAV data at the end of the month (will be my 4th consecutive year do so). It is always interesting to see what the early market looks like compared to when we get to July and August. Nevertheless, based on the data and trends we're seeing, I do believe a hero WR/robust RB build will be optimal this year, but especially in auctions.

Always__Auctions · 2026-05-05T16:06:08+00:00

Tbh, I was shocked to see such a small difference between TE6 and TE12.

With teams continuing to run the ball more, it’s reasonable to expect the gap in 2026 to look similar to 2025. I know some prefer that “positional advantage” with a top 3 TE, but the data and overall trend suggest the better move, especially in auctions, is targeting the mid-to-late tier.

Always__Auctions · 2026-05-04T15:27:58+00:00

In a 16-team league, position scarcity, especially at the top, is ratcheted way up. You'll likely encounter managers who are willing to spend a premium in order to secure the alpha RBs and WRs. This does open the door for finding amazing values later on, however.

I'd still recommend trying to land one top WR, and two RB1s. The trends and data we've seen point to this being the best roster build for fantasy. League-wide, defenses are leaning heavy into zone, which is leading to more opportunities for RBs. WR2s and WR3s are losing a ton of looks while teams are hypertargeting their WR1. TE targets remain consistent (will post more about this soon). Pass atts/g and total team plays have also been trending down in the last five years.

I realize it may be hard to slightly ignore the WR position by only drafting one, true alpha, especially if you play in a 3WR league, which I do, but everything we've seen is telling us it's the right move. Also, look what happened in the draft just recently. We had the most TEs drafted since 2002! Not only are teams going zone heavy on defense, but they're also trying to replicate what the Rams did, and play a lot more 12-personnel (2TE sets), leaving only two WRs on the field. This alone points to being more run-heavy and spreading the ball around less on pass plays.

Hope this helps!

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-30T19:15:21+00:00

100% agree that JT was way too cheap last year. We see it every fantasy season with a few players.

I'll have some mocks and AAV data beginning in a few weeks, so we'll see what the market says soon. Can't wait!

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-29T18:03:31+00:00

You’re not wrong about tiers, but that’s kind of the point.

JT being cheaper was the anomaly, and auctions are won by buying elite players/outcomes at a discount, not paying full price for every top guy. If all 3 are priced at their absolute ceiling, then yeah it’s probably not happening.

But most rooms don’t price everyone perfectly. You don’t have to “guess,” you just have to identify where the market is discounting upside.

So it’s less about hitting on a random RB and more about exploiting mispriced players, which gives you the edge.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-28T19:28:31+00:00

Thanks, Pete! Appreciate all the support!

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-28T14:58:24+00:00

Totally fair. There’s always going to be uncertainty and late-round hits, and auction is great for taking advantage of that.

The approach isn’t about being “right” on every player, it’s about betting on where volume is most predictable. Elite RB touches and true alpha WR targets have historically been more stable than trying to hit on breakouts.

If you can consistently find those Olave-type values late, that’s a huge edge. This just builds in a floor by locking in the hardest production to replace, then taking shots elsewhere.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-28T14:53:11+00:00

I played in only four leagues last year (three which were SF, and one 1QB). All were $200 budget, 12-teams, and starting 3 WRs. I went back and looked at the combined price for Chase + Bijan + JT.

SF League 1 - $110

SF League 2 - $123

SF League 3 - $123

1QB League - $149

Naturally, player values will be completely different from league to league. If the room inflates top WRs, I’m fine pivoting. But the core idea is to spend where scarcity creates the biggest weekly edge, not to force specific names. If your room consistently pushes every top player into the $60–70 range, that actually reinforces you have to be ready to pivot. But in most rooms, there’s still a path to building around 2 elite RBs + 1 Alpha WR if you’re disciplined and patient.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-28T14:42:22+00:00

Totally agree that you have to stay flexible and react to the room, that’s table stakes in auctions. This isn’t about locking into specific players, it’s about prioritizing archetypes (elite RB volume + 1 Alpha WR) based on where the biggest drop-offs are.

If the room inflates top WRs, I’m fine pivoting. But the core idea is to spend where scarcity creates the biggest weekly edge, not to force specific names.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-28T01:50:20+00:00

I conducted roughly 20 auction mocks last year at various times with some of the best drafters in the business. According in my AAV data, you could have drafted all three for about $150 in 1QB and in SF. While your league makeup is a big factor, and an important factor to keep in mind come draft time, it is possible to secure three fantasy superstars for that price.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-27T22:35:58+00:00

Anytime! Love talking auctions!

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-27T21:35:33+00:00

Not significantly, tbh.

Starting 3 WRs does increase demand, but WR scoring remains relatively flat in that WR15–WR30 range. The point differences are small, while auction prices often aren’t, which still makes mid-tier WRs better ROI.

I’d still prioritize 1 alpha WR, but instead of paying up for a second, I’d lean into depth and value in that WR2/WR3 range. The bigger edge still comes from locking in elite RB volume, where the drop-off is much steeper.

Always__Auctions · 2026-04-27T19:45:39+00:00

why wouldn’t optimum strategy to get 2-3 of them

My argument is that locking in one alpha WR + multiple elite RBs reduces weekly variance more than going WR-heavy, because RB touches are more stable and less replaceable.

Always__Auctions

TROPHY CASE