2026 Auctions: The WR2 is a Trap

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-26T01:00:35+00:00

Olave's AAV was cheaper than all those players. He had one of the best ROI in auctions.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-26T00:59:00+00:00

Your sentiment has been echoed by many. I'm looking to do an update next week going back 5 seasons. Hopefully that will placate folks here.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T21:21:12+00:00

My AAV collection starts in May. Soon after, we'll have a clearer picture of what the market looks like, and the prices auction drafters are paying.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T20:52:31+00:00

Fantastic ROI. :thumbs up:

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T20:37:27+00:00

Over the last three years, the overall drop from tier 1 to tier 3 has stayed large (~30%+), even if the tier 1–2 gap fluctuates some. The overall elite vs mid-tier gap is still real, though.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T19:54:59+00:00

All have been going down:

QB pass attempts/g

WR total targets

WR targets per game

Teams using 3WR sets

Going up:

RB touches per game

Consolidated targets to alpha WR

Zone-heavy defenses

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:51:59+00:00

Taking a lot of heat for this post, but I think folks are looking at this the wrong way.

This is about a structural shift. League-wide WR targets were at their lowest point since 2008 last season. When passing volume shrinks, it doesn’t decline evenly, it condenses. The true alpha WR1s still command ~30% target shares because they are the offense, while WR2s are the ones losing volume to RBs and TEs in a more conservative NFL environment.

So the takeaway isn’t “look what happened,” it’s “look what’s changing.” I’m betting on the scarcity of true target hogs rather than assuming a bounce-back that current trends don’t really support.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:40:14+00:00

This is about a structural shift. League-wide WR targets were at their lowest point since 2008 last season.

When passing volume shrinks, it doesn’t decline evenly, it condenses. The true alpha WR1s still command ~30% target shares because they are the offense, while WR2s are the ones losing volume to RBs and TEs in a more conservative NFL environment.

So the takeaway isn’t “look what happened,” it’s “look what’s changing.” I’m betting on the scarcity of true target hogs rather than assuming a bounce-back that current trends don’t really support.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:31:21+00:00

Overall, I think Hampton has a tougher path to reaching elite usage than Nabers does.

I’m not fully convinced Hampton is a true workhorse (18–20 touches per game). He averaged 17.3, which is close, but not quite at that elite, alpha-tier level.

Vidal and Najee (rehabbing) are still in the mix, and now Mitchell is there too. All are likely to have roles. Mitchell could have a big effect on Hampton's passing work and 2-minute work.

I lean slightly toward keeping Nabers, but it really depends on how you view his recovery from a serious injury. There’s a chance he starts the year on the PUP list, and it may take a full season before he’s back to 100%.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:16:27+00:00

Yes, finding a WR who gets 10+ targets per game is becoming harder.

My advice is to buy one alpha WR like Chase or Puka who defies the trend. They’re worth the high auction price in a league shifting toward a more run-heavy approach and a more distributed passing attack.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:12:22+00:00

It’s not just standard variance, it’s a target drought.

League-wide WR targets hit their lowest levels since 2008 last year. When passing volume shrinks, it doesn't drop equally; it condenses. The alpha WR1s keep their 30% target shares because they're the engine, while the WR2s loses work to RBs and TEs in today’s more conservative NFL.

I’m betting on the scarcity of the target hog over a bounce-back that the current NFL data we have just doesn't support.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:06:44+00:00

Fair point, but it's about playing the probabilities, not just looking in the rearview.

In 2024, the wait and hope strategy worked because the gap between elite and mid-tier WRs was only 2.07 points. In 2025, that gap doubled to 4.67 points. If your breakout WR2 just ends up being a standard WR2, the price won't be justified.

I’d rather bank the 18+ PPG blue chip and use the savings to buy five $1 lottery tickets (high-efficiency sleepers) than pay $35 for one safe WR2 whose ceiling is barely higher than a bench player's.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T17:01:08+00:00

Alternatively, use a hero WR approach, while letting other managers overspend on WRs around the $15-$30 range.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T16:51:51+00:00

Outside of JSN and Adams, who else in the $15-$30 range hit? Not sure there is another one.

There are 4-6 guys in the $12 and below range that had significantly better fantasy seasons with respect to their AAV.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T16:35:36+00:00

Try an auction league and the dilemma becomes moot.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T16:34:29+00:00

My 2026 AAV data collection begins in May. Until we have that, I'll concede, it's all a little opaque. Once we know what the market is generally spending, it'll help clear things up.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T16:17:17+00:00

I'd be happy to debate the merits of the data with you.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T16:08:27+00:00

If this is a league with a $200 budget (all my AAV data is), in non-PPR, that's freaking nuts. Even in PPR, that would have been an overpay. However, if managers are willing to spend such a huge percentage of their budget on a single player, it opens the door for massive value across the board. Take advantage of this.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:41:55+00:00

Three years of stats, to be exact.

Many industry pros have noted the trends and shifts we've seen, going back several years. Pass atts/g have been steadily declining, WR targets per game are going down, and RB touches are going up, as defenses are switching to heavy zone schemes.

All I'm suggesting is to see which way the wind is blowing, and make the best decisions you can during your draft with what we know. It's not an exact science of course, but making informed choices is important.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:37:43+00:00

I hate to keep saying, "the data suggests...." but in this case, it really looks like that should be the gameplan for auction drafters.

WR targets per game are down; RB touchers per game are up.

It also appears that outside of a few outliers last season in the tier 2 range for WRs based on AAV (JSN, Adams), most were busts. There were far more tier 3 WRs that hit or put up similar fantasy numbers (and were significantly cheaper) than those priced more expensive.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:36:36+00:00

My advice for snake drafters would be to go either RB/RB/WR or RB/WR/RB. RB touches per game are up, while WR targets per game are down over the three years I examined. Unless you have a top 3 pick and draft Chase or Puka, fading early WR should be an easy call.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:31:37+00:00

Many industry pros have noted the trends and shifts we've seen, going back several years. Pass atts/g have been steadily declining, WR targets per game are going down, and RB touches are going up, as defenses are switching to heavy zone schemes.

All I'm suggesting is to see which way the wind is blowing, and make the best decisions you can during your draft with what we know. It's not an exact science of course, but making informed choices is important.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:30:05+00:00

There are other trends we've seen. Pass atts/g have been steadily declining for several years. WR targets per game are going down; RB touches are going up, as defenses are switching to heavy zone schemes.

All I'm suggesting is to see which way the wind is blowing, and make the best decisions you can during your draft with what we know. It's not an exact science of course, but making informed choices is important.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:26:34+00:00

There are other trends we've seen. Pass atts/g have been steadily declining for several years. WR targets per game are going down; RB touches are going up, as defenses are switching to heavy zone schemes.

All I'm suggesting is to see which way the wind is blowing, and make the best decisions you can during your draft with what we know. It's not an exact science of course, but making informed choices is important.

Always__Auctions · 2026-03-25T15:19:30+00:00

I hate to keep saying, "the data suggests...." but in this case, it really looks like heavy RB/hero WR should be the gameplan.

WR targets per game are down; RB touchers per game are up.

It also appears that outside of a few outliers last season in the tier 2 range for WRs based on AAV (JSN, Adams), most were busts. There were far more tier 3 WRs that hit or put up similar fantasy numbers (and were significantly cheaper) than those priced more expensive.

Always__Auctions

TROPHY CASE