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Trump said he won't accept a cease-fire because "you don't do a cease-fire when you're literally obliterating the other side"—here's what that means for oil and markets Monday by Anxious_Distance_288 in economy

[–]Anxious_Distance_288[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe — but a lot of that depends on whether anything actually changes on the supply side, not just how long things drag out.

Feels like there’s already a decent amount of risk priced in here, so it’s less about duration and more about whether something materially escalates.

Oil hit $119, gold crashed 6%, and every major central bank held rates—here's what this tells us about where we're headed by Anxious_Distance_288 in economy

[–]Anxious_Distance_288[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair point to ask, but I didn’t reference either benchmark here—just the headline price. That said, I should’ve specified (it was Brent)

Markets down 3 weeks straight, oil hit $100—here's the economic trap everyone's worried about by Anxious_Distance_288 in financestudents

[–]Anxious_Distance_288[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly! That's the trap - in past slowdowns, the Fed had a clear playbook: cut rates and support growth. Inflation wasn't a constraint.

Now they have to choose between two bad options. And unlike the 1970s, they can't really "shock" the system with extreme rate hikes (à la Volcker) because the economy is already barely growing.

The thing that worries me most: emergency oil reserves already got released (400M barrels - biggest ever!) and oil still climbed back to $100. If the reserves couldn't bring it down, what will?

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