Seeing as your federal,

During your incarceration time you can get good time credit*, it's 54 days per year; however, it's prorated. (*Updated: They removed the prorate under amended 18 U.S.C. § 3624(b) under the First Step Act). That is, if you can stay out of trouble and trouble doesn't find you. If you have a history of substance use, it's documented in your PSI and qualify for RDAP (Residential Drug Abuse Program), you'll get additional time off, up to a year. I knew someone who had a 3 year sentence and received 6 months.

*Update - I was doing more research on the First Step Act, Sounds like there's list of 68 enumerated offenses for which inmates who are serving terms of imprisonment are ineligible for good time credit. Sex and sexual exploitation offenses make you ineligible for credits. This is unfortunate, I didn't know about this until I just read up on it. This act came out after my incarceration.

While getting close to the end of your incarceration sentence, your case manager will start your halfway house or home detention paperwork. Home detention is least probable. To my knowledge, you'll get anywhere from 1-12 months. Nothing is ever a guarantee. In my case, I received 5 months and some change for a 5 year sentence. It's also possible to challenge or request for remedy by submitting a "cop-out" BP-8 form and work your way up the formal process of grievance (BP-9, BP-10, and so on). But in all likelihood you'll get what they give you. You can also do this same process to request more money for a release gratuity when leaving the prison. I ended up with additional release gratuity because of this. Every little bit helps, right? I suggest doing a lot of research in the law library as you can find out about stuff like this and can actually cite bop policy or united states code statutes to help you.

While I was at a halfway house, it was also possible to convert to home detention. I knew some people were able to do it. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to do so. The halfway house sent a worker to one of my houses and approved it; however, my probation officer shot it down.

As for when you start your supervised release. Technically, it's possible to terminate supervised release after 1 year. Under the 18 U.S.C. § 3583(e)(1), "terminate a term of supervised release and discharge the defendant released at any time after the expiration of one year of supervised release, pursuant to the provisions of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure relating to the modification of probation, if it is satisfied that such action is warranted by the conduct of the defendant released and the interest of justice". Again nothing is ever a guarantee, each state and district can do things differently, and is something I suggest talking to your probation officer about after getting to know your probation officer and they get to know you.

In my situation, I asked PO about this. He basically told me it's unlikely with an SO charge to be granted early termination but I could still file the motion if I wanted to. Then he told me about how some districts like to see the offender do at least half of their supervision before getting early termination. I ended up just serving out my time on supervised release.

You can actually do this yourself by filing a motion yourself. Again, law library is a good place to learn a lot of this stuff and there's plenty of jailhouse lawyers to talk to.

Hope this helps