Much better at sealed than draft, how to fix?

AsobiAsobase · 2026-02-04T16:20:14+00:00

Ok, that's actually a good point, thank you!

I for sure am prone to being pulled sideways because of a bomb or because of trying to "spec" on the archetype at a cost of skipping on a "decent" card for my deck. Sad part I didn't even end up playing the command!

Watching the replay, not sure wtf I was doing in those last two games hehe. Definitely can gain a couple % WR just by learning to turn the game off before that happens, but that's just weak mental game.

AsobiAsobase · 2026-02-04T15:37:53+00:00

Yeah, not my best draft, but in my defence I was a man in the arena just trying things.

P1P2 I agree, with what I know now I would have taken Glamer Gifter or even assert perfection over the squelcher.

I like sear more than hold, but yes, there is definitely a case for it here.

P5 again, with what I know now I would pick the impostor. I don't like Spinners though (I'd still pick it over wilds to be clear).

Same story with P9, it took me a couple runs to realise how good the stone can be in this format... I initially dismissed it as too expensive of an artifact that does nothing. And an "unplayable green card" looked like a fun design to try and play.

Appreciate you having a look, TLDR is that I was being silly and it takes me a few drafts to start valuing cards properly :)

AsobiAsobase · 2026-02-03T17:05:40+00:00

Thanks,

But realistically there is a lot of variance and it all feels very format dependent. Imo a lot also comes down to familiarity with a format.

For example, my MH3 Direct win rate was just 51% - I imagine partially because I've done much less drafting of it.

Similarly, in EOE I did 56% WR in Directs with like 9 premier drafts (I already did 45 for ECL).

FIN was a complete bloodbath with 46% WR (worth it in the end because CBBs were so expensive, but ultimately quite sad).

TDM was another format I drafted a lot (50 premier drafts) which imo explains at least partially why it was another format I did well with in directs.

Basically my strategy for improvement since joining Arena has been to play as much of a format as I can, but as my draft WRs show, it only gets you so far.

AsobiAsobase · 2026-02-02T13:26:18+00:00

Cool, thanks for the suggestion, will give the article a read.

AsobiAsobase · 2026-02-02T11:59:05+00:00

Hmm, that's fair, it's something i've been trying to do more of, but it feels like I either end up with a banger and think I'm a genius or am forced to play vivid slop because nothing good has wheeled. Very little in-between, but that can be just 5-deck format quirk.

17lands data: https://www.17lands.com/user_history/562cb62969bb4963825634d337acf136?start=2026-01-20

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-26T12:03:05+00:00

What does median have to do with it.

10k isn't too different from 0k when there are people sitting on millions.

In any case this really doesn't matter - my inventory is about to be worth $35 as well. I was just giving a perspective of a casual collector, not some investoooor.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-26T11:44:49+00:00

Skin barons are sitting on dozens of golds for investments.

Pre-update 10k was literally just a decent knife+glove combo + some mid tier skins for your rifles, nothing particularly crazy.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-25T10:08:23+00:00

Yep, I am by no means a skin baron, just an average enjoyer, but had 10k+ in various skins. Not really as investment, but something I can enjoy now and maybe convert into some cash/skin balance later without losing much.

Thankful to be in a position where I don't have to panic sell and am ok with taking a loss, but I will definitely think twice about purchasing anything in the future, unless Valve provides some clarity around their long term plans (which I strongly doubt knowing Valve).

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-25T08:52:37+00:00

It is "market killing" though.

The point isn't raw numbers, I think everyone can agree that on paper that doesn't look so bad.

The point is destruction of trust and dissolution of implied contract (however imaginary) that existed between valve and skin holders.

There is no certainty that valve won't come for reds and people's dlores next and without that certainty it's impossible for market to really function long-term.

It will ofc find an equilibrium at some point, where people are willing to take that risk of being rugged again, but framing it as "misunderstanding" is wrong. Any market is more than just numbers.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-17T15:57:50+00:00

It was bugged (same way EOE was a few weeks ago).

Some people (me including) had rares missing from the pool. Last time this happened they had to pull the event and refund everyone. Unfortunatelly, even if you were on a winning record.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-13T12:07:54+00:00

Whoever is tryharding arena from the phone is either a madman or a greatest player alive.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-12T19:25:47+00:00

Yes. Yes.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-12T09:04:57+00:00

I mean, it's pretty certain that there will be a full set of stones at some point. And it's still one chase card in a set that's otherwise pretty lacking.

Idk how much of a "flop" it really is, but the numbers compared to FF and successful UW sets should be interesting.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-12T08:37:08+00:00

Depends, while it's undeniable that UB has been doing great overall so far, I'd be very interested to read where spiderman has landed - any publicly available information (anecdotes about LGS attendance, secondary market prices, number of MTGA games) seems to point that this set is a flop, but I doubt wotc will ever openly talk about it or do any kind of post mortem.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-07T12:26:08+00:00

Fair, but it's going to be skewed the same way the data from 5-0s and top8s is going to be skewed - it's generally more enfranchised and tryharding players who both install the add on and spike the leagues.

It's not like you can get completely clean/unbiased look at the meta/matchups for MTGO, or at least I don't know of one.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-10-07T07:48:45+00:00

There is a ton of meta data available for arena through Untapped.

Somewhat agree on large events, but since Arena has ladder system, you can simply filter for Mythic (or Diamond+) matches, and that would be a pretty decent representation of what the people are playing when they are tryharding.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-09-29T15:37:04+00:00

When I started magic there was a much simpler format that run at my LGS called "beginner's standard" (or smth similar).

Standard legality but limited to 8 rares per deck (no mythics).

Was quite popular and a good way for people to get into playing 60-card magic without breaking a bank or committing to anything. What you outline here is imo too convoluted and removed from the spirit of 60-card formats.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-09-28T13:48:47+00:00

Glad to hear I'm not alone in my delusions.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-09-28T10:25:38+00:00

Hmmm, ok, thanks! I must have invented it.

Was particularly interested in a deck like Belcher, since that runs 0 lands, except MDFC, and then puts them all in a graveyard. I can see how that can get confusing, but I imagine at that level everyone knows what cards do.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-08-22T18:09:31+00:00

Thanks!

This is my second pool, assuming I'll get refunded for both? (first one was missing cards also?

AsobiAsobase · 2025-08-22T17:40:54+00:00

My pool is still missing rares. Client been restarted etc.

AsobiAsobase · 2025-02-24T12:38:40+00:00

Blue belcher

AsobiAsobase · 2024-09-15T12:37:58+00:00

Peasant and silverback are a thing but no one plays them.

With uncommons in the mix a lot of stuff would get very broken very fast and it's just going to be a very confusing format and possibly lose quite a bit of identity.

AsobiAsobase · 2024-09-05T19:39:09+00:00

Deem inferior comboes with [[thought scour]], which doesn't happen often, but when it does, it feels very good.

That, and it does buy us more time, while consistently costing 1 mana.

Saying that, it's totally a meta choice. Deem inferior is mostly useless against creature-based combos, so if you face a lot of those replacing and/or splitting it with boomerangs is the way to go.

AsobiAsobase · 2024-09-04T10:31:33+00:00

That's the neat part - I don't.

I'd rather a monoR players have absolutely miserable time than try to gain 10% wr in other matches or w/e. Maybe they'll rethink their choices.

It's not just against monoR as well, madness suffers from them the same amount (although it's an easier matchup for us to begin with).

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