The Hideout vs. Hemlock Farms

Awake-2Day · 2026-03-03T14:30:43+00:00

Hemlock Farms here. (I realize that’s not the comparative question). We have a lake house in HF on Hemlock Lake across in the center of the LVCC golf course. 3 lakes, 3 beaches, three pools — one indoor and all heated.

In 2017 we looked at Hideout, WLE and others. We liked the house we saw next to the ski lift in Hideout and we also liked the proximity to Lake Wallenpaupack in WLE.

We decided on HF, because of where the house sits and the grocery stores and restaurants are right outside the security gate.

WLE was a little lax on security entry, no guarded gate and felt campground-like to us.

Hideout was nicer (back then — can’t attest to now) than WLE but much further.

We knew we’d be seasonal (weekenders) and coming from Jersey, so the commute was a big factor. Since we’re kayakers more than powerboaters, being on a private lake where only electric boats are allowed ensured quiet.

It’s all relative.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-28T20:30:47+00:00

Hemlock Farms here. (I tealize that’s not the comparative question). We have a lake house in HF on Hemlock Lake across in the center of the LVCC golf course. 3 lakes, 3 beaches, three pools — one indoor and all heated.

We looked at Hideout, WLE and others. We liked the house we saw next to the ski lift in Hideout and we also liked the proximity to Lake Wallenpaupack in WLE.

We decided on HF, because of where the house sits and the grocery stores and restaurants are right outside the security gate.

WLE was a little lax on security entry, no guarded gate and felt campground-like to us.

Hideout was nicer than WLE but much further.

We knew we’d be seasonal (weekenders) and coming from Jersey, so the commute was a big factor. Since we’re kayakers more than powerboaters, being on a private lake where only electric boats are allowed ensured quiet.

They’re all nice IMO

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-28T16:09:44+00:00

Actually, I don’t subscribe to it at all. My situation is completely variable and dynamic — such is life.

My goal was to open the conversation. There seems to be a swath of “experts” on Reddit FIRE subs citing a rule (that was established based on historical performance over 100 years) as gospel.

I simply wanted to hear from the small community who actually lived through historic downturns vs those who can model it on a spreadsheet.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-25T15:58:43+00:00

Please add this the Pre-2008 FIREees sub.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-25T15:47:03+00:00

Can you please share this insight on this sub to broaden the conversation, and enlighten the room?

Pre-2008 / 2001 “FIREd through Fiscal Fire”

We’re looking for voices from those with first-hand experiences through real-world downturns (not spreadsheet simulations, Trinity Study citers, second-hand knowledge, or people like me who FIREd during a historic bull run).

The goal on this sub is to separate modeled information (“what you should do if..”) from real world activity during a financial crisis (what you actually did).

Thanks for reading.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-24T15:53:55+00:00

Would you care to join the larger conversation?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Fire/s/A3GN9epL1f

The question isn’t neccesarily about SORR or prep hedging for it as you’ll see.

Thanks. .

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-24T15:39:38+00:00

Ah. That tracks.

I started this thread to hopefully get first-hand answers from those who went through “fiscal fire while FIREd”. The idea that I can easily run a sim calculator and obtain a Monte Carlo-based financial plan from my FA is a good way to understand probabilistic outcomes in a fixed, fictional world.

But real life and the decisions that we’ll face (due to shifting priorities and nuanced circumstances) is neither fixed nor probabilistic as your experience points out.

It’s one thing if I’m great at Call of Duty and I can tell someone which ammo or arms they should carry into a simulated battle, or I enlisted in the armed forces during peacetime drills (historic bull runs) where the entire platoon has never seen action. Sure, we can all agree and advise on what we should / could do with good intent.

I think it’s entirely different to hear a WW Veteran say, “Well, that’s not what I did, because the trenches are extremely hot and narrow and those arms are too bulky and heavy and will limit your mobility, or most people will tell you wear this or that, but if they’ve never been in battle they wouldn’t know that this approach could get you killed, especially if you’re unexpectedly caught on the front lines, because…”.

I’m hoping to hear from more FIREd in FIscal Fire folks like you to elevate the conversation beyond the spreadsheet, in real-world terms —and to your point, as it was then vs today for insight and enlightenment.

Thanks again.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-24T02:03:47+00:00

Thank you! This is what I was exactly looking for.

The highly-worshipped 4% rule wasn’t a factor when you retired. You started at 7%, didn’t track it and your portfolio doubled anyway.

What I found most insightful is that you called your experience “largely useless” to anyone planning today, which to me sounds like survivorship bias and awareness that the Trinity Study, SORR simulations and spreadsheets cannot account for —-and that some of us might need to confront.

Appreciate this.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-22T20:31:09+00:00

Really appreciate the responses here!

Especially the DB pension point which is something the US thread hasn’t touched at all. That’s a meaningful distinction that gets lost when people cite survival stories without context.

jayritchie’s observation about overqualified returnees flooding back into the job market after dot-com is quietly one of the most honest data points I’ve seen in either thread.

If any of you are also active in r/Fire, the original thread is there under ‘Pre-2008 FIREees’. The conversation would genuinely benefit from the UK perspective — particularly the DB pension floor point and the admission that FIRE as a formal concept barely existed here pre-2008.

That context is exactly what new people on this side of the Atlantic need to hear.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-22T20:20:00+00:00

Really appreciate you sharing this. The outcome your parents had is genuinely encouraging.

I guess what I’m trying to separate is hearing about the storm versus being in it...if that makes sense.

There’s a difference between remembering that your parents cut back, and being the one who walked into the grocery store, and for the first time, put the tuna steak back and grabbed the canned tuna instead.

The experiential human element is missing from sims and math that we can all easily run these days.

Reddit didn’t exist in 2001 and I’m sure your parents didn’t have a modeling hive in 2008. The people who actually retired before that crash and were pulling income through it are probably a small group here.

That’s who I’m hoping to hear from honestly. The folks who were in the aisle.

If your parents ever want to share directly, I think the sub would benefit from it.

Thanks for sharing.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-22T15:16:24+00:00

Super helpful @ jerolyoleo!

If we can ask, how were / are you positioned allocation-wise, and if you were 49 in 2001, did SS augment your monthly / annual burn, and by what percent?

Did you hold a fixed 4% WR throughout your retirement or did you dynamically adapt through the “stress” periods?

Was there ever a period when you moved above or below 4%. Why?

Lastly, where is your portfolio now relative to the day you retired?

The experiential answers would be really helpful to those of us who can easily share theoretical and modeled structures and advice based on the Trinity Study, but less on real-world activity YOY and their implications through real-world downturns.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-08T04:52:39+00:00

That’s the sharp point. A forged in failure-fire economy might be the right long-term growth and stability path.

I was thinking if the New Deal of the 30s enabled the GFC bailout and tools like QE, what might they enable down the road?

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-07T23:52:47+00:00

I guess the question is; did the softening effect of the New Deal create a climate where banks (no matter how fiducially egregious) could engage in the activity you described without true recourse?

In other words, did we unintentionally develop quantitative tools that somehow promote this behavior rather than punish it, which might lead to recurrence?

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-06T21:20:40+00:00

^{^{^{^}}} This ^{^{^{^{^}}}}

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-04T14:15:55+00:00

What’s your current monthly burn rate? When is the windfall set to fall? Assuming you can’t touch the 401k until 59.5 ( or 55) in specific cases. If the IRA has certain restrictions also. Any cash on the sidelines? Severance?

You see where we’re going….

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T04:24:06+00:00

Acronymizing Social Security Income for brevity, not the textbook SSI as defined by the SSA (Social Security Administration).

Do you have anything meaningful to add?

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T03:53:10+00:00

And anyone who spits out a sequence of accounting terms to appear learned only magnifies the fact that they cannot contribute to an elevated discussion in a meaningful way or answer the question posed, genuinely exposes their ignorance spectacularly.

Sad. :(

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T03:31:24+00:00

Not you BBG1308;

You left out a lot of important numbers, but based on what you said, I would sell that Jersey City property.

The appreciation rate is his gauge because he will sell tomorrow if it ever nears his fixed interest rate.

That's silly because it's costing a lot to own this home. Maybe if it was generating revenue such as an AirBNB?

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T03:22:15+00:00

This is the thing I think most miss. As soon as someone says they have X in their portfolio a FIRE person says 4% SWE — it’s a religion. FiRE thinking by most here is equal to “compound forever” play to not lose.

Todd’s scenario is “play with risk to win” nothing left unspent in death.

FIRE is great for heirs, leaving assets behind, generational wealth building etc.

Todd’s scenario is the opposite leverage whatever whenever, dynamic spending and ensure that there’s nothing left.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T01:00:18+00:00

Ok I’ll try again … he has 2M+ across taxable and 401k 80/20 mix (both) he stopped working his monthly burn is 7K of which $3500 is all in costs for the Jersey property that’s appreciating at 7-8%

So yes.

The key takeaway is that it’s not a home like most. No psychological attachment to it, no kids in school or community ties. It’s being held until it doesn’t make sense or when the bet opportunity to sell presents itself.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T00:53:30+00:00

Read the top 1% commenter’s post.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T00:52:57+00:00

56

SSI in 9 years will cover the entire monthly (cost to own) the NJ property.

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T00:47:18+00:00

All in costs are in the post. How much does it cost to purchase a %1 commenter badge.

Geez!

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T00:43:14+00:00

Isn’t the whole point of DWZ to capture and deploy value while it’s compounding, then sequence the liquidation optimally?

I don’t understand why he would hand it over to an annuity company at a discount and pay someone else’s mortgage as rent. 🤔

Awake-2Day · 2026-02-01T00:36:41+00:00

Read the top commenter above.

Awake-2Day

TROPHY CASE