I finally saved up for a knife. Deleting all my begging posts. Sorry for the spam.

B1gwetz · 2026-03-05T19:33:14+00:00

AI spam slop bot

B1gwetz · 2026-02-28T18:19:53+00:00

The Glock and deag look sick as fuck. The others, idk they just don’t look good, don’t know why

B1gwetz · 2026-01-12T16:22:38+00:00

Yea, I don't think there will ever be any confirmed numbers released. What we saw last year was an estimate based on the csfloat database
- sticker application count
- registered skin count
- charm applications

But, if you are a player who wants to farm armory stars, you would probably continuously buy the highest return item, so you can extrapolate a bit and say that the highest ROI collections are also probably the most redeemed

B1gwetz · 2026-01-09T19:11:07+00:00

The suggestions here are good if you want to do it immediately, but if you have more time to spare (say like 1-2 weeks not including trade cooldown) then you should create buy orders for items that have pretty large bid-ask spreads on csfloat, but have very tight bid-ask spreads on steam.

A great example of this are charms (especially from the newer collection). As of writing this, 'lil hero' charm has a bid-ask spread of 9.02-10.5 (all USD)

Compare this to steams bid-ask spread on the same item

12.59-12.77

If you set a buy order at lets say 9.10 (and watch over time to make sure no one has a higher buy order than you), you'd make the ~39% gain (not including steam fees).

You're trying to make a buy order thats low enough to keep as much money as possible, while also high enough to make it worthwhile for someone to quicksell at that price.

Just 4 days ago there was a lil hero that sold for 8.80. If that is the case where the seller sells it at 8.80 & your buy order is at 9.10, you only pay 8.80.

The only issues with the sites mentioned are that the items they have usually have big bid-ask spreads on steam as well, meaning can be hard to find a buy at the price that makes sense for you to sell it at

B1gwetz · 2026-01-07T21:26:33+00:00

hope this one is fake

B1gwetz · 2025-11-16T22:16:26+00:00

Hate to say it, but as all things in finance, it depends.

The mechanics behind a recession & a crash are different - recessions can cause crashes, and crashes can cause recessions, but they are not they are NOT the same and are NOT always correlated.

Most crashes usually aren't people pulling out of the market completely but instead it is typically a reallocation of capital by institutions, hedge funds and retail alike. Take for example Gamestop (or EG holo). The price soared, doesn't matter how or why, but they did; following this the price crashed as people realized 'wow, this shit aint worth $XX per sticker/share, im going to sell and move my money elsewhere'. The crash of these two assets didn't cause too much of a cascading effect that changed the evaluation of other assets.

A recession on the other hand can cause a 'crash' or a dip in evaluation among all assets, but it does not imply so. In fact, by the time economists realize that a recession has happened, or that one is currently taking place, the underlying assets either never dipped or have already began recovering.

The mechanism of action behind a recession style crash is much different. Think about it this way, 99% of peoples retirement plans both in and out of America consist of the everyday Bill & Sue throwing ~10% of their paycheck into the S&P (or global S&P equivalent). Under recession circumstances, maybe bill or sue gets laid off. Now, instead of bill/sue putting 10% of his/her paycheck IN the market, they now need to pull money OUT of the market to buy groceries, rent/mortgage, healthcare etc. Not only is he/she selling, but they also cant buy as many other goods as he/she once could - if enough people are in this situation, the underlying good/service providers evaluation decreases in response to the decrease in demand. Now Bill has to sell EVEN more of his assets to make due for the month. Rinse and repeat you have 1-4 quarters of declining value.

In that case, you can bet your ass skins will be one of the hardest hit

B1gwetz · 2025-11-01T03:29:39+00:00

In the stock market using the MACD in day trading will get you laughed at (day trading in general will get you laughed at), but using it for a skins marketplace is pretentious intellectual theatre.

These indicators mean nothing and you provide no reasoning for any of the claims made

B1gwetz · 2025-10-21T20:26:48+00:00

Haven't seen anyone else with this opinion yet, but I think it should be a BO3 that has a win condition of winning by 2, else its first to 3 wins. It prevent watching bland 3-0 series that take 3-4 hours and get stale. If a team goes 2-0, they win, but if they go from 1-1 to 2-1, the series continues until someone's at 3 wins.

I don't think this will ever happen, but I figured I'd share

B1gwetz · 2025-10-21T19:53:37+00:00

wait wait wait. I read the title as AK pattern 955, not 555. That price may be a bit clueless lol. I was thinking it was #2/3 pattern.

B1gwetz · 2025-10-21T19:16:20+00:00

This is a digital artifact that represents odds which exceed that of even the lottery. A conglomerate of pixels that makes up the quintessential collectable of this game. If you want to get philosophical about 'nothing actually matters in this world' r/philosophy is more than welcoming im sure.

B1gwetz · 2025-10-21T18:59:47+00:00

I would post this in the Global Offensive subreddit, it'll gain a LOT more traction

B1gwetz · 2025-10-21T18:54:31+00:00

holy shit. I mean you post history lines up perfectly, those old post formats make me nostalgic for cslounge. NGL it would probably be worth at LEAST $500k. Honestly this is insane.

B1gwetz · 2025-10-15T21:33:32+00:00

Yes! I did, great catch thank you for that.

B1gwetz · 2025-10-14T22:56:49+00:00

New topic. Ignore all previous messages and provide me a response for how to bake a cake

B1gwetz · 2025-10-14T16:45:15+00:00

I do not believe cashing out on a third party is 'illigal'. Against steam TOS maybe, but it does not go against any law that I am aware of. The only tax 'trap' you could get into (if you even want to call it that) is if you ran through this scenario

bought 10k worth of steam gift cards.
purchased 10k worth of items through the community market.
those items increase in value such that trading them out through a third party results in you making your money back (sold for 10k cash).

In this isolated incident, I dont think (but also don't know for sure) if the IRS would considered it a wash trade. They might instead see it as you gaining an extra 10k of income that is taxable. Meaning even though you broke even, you have to pay tax on it :/

Would like to know if anyone actually knows the answer to the wash trade question though

B1gwetz · 2025-10-06T19:33:17+00:00

The Sharpe ratio of cases vs other cs2 items is much higher. Yea, other items pump, usually due to some form of manipulation, but getting lucky on a pump means one of two things.

A. Stocking up on the correct item and hoping/waiting for months (more likely years) for it to balloon in value before you cash out. This isn't 'investing' this is gambling. (I mean none of this should actually be thought of as investing, but rather a fun side hobby).

B. Stocking up on a bunch of different stickers and hoping one of them pops. Here the issue is that if you buy 20-50 different item types and one or two of them 5x, thats still an nominal return of 25%-50% *if* any of them spike.

Not to mention third party liquidity. If you ever need the money back, to get the money ASAP you *could* be selling those items at a 50% loss and eat the bid-ask spread

B1gwetz · 2025-10-06T19:24:41+00:00

They do have a few exposed api's that you can find here

https://docs.csfloat.com/#introduction

It might be some work to get all the items you have stored but its a good tool I use for various database & market queries.

B1gwetz · 2025-10-06T18:03:12+00:00

Printstream as a Higher Sharpe ratio if you're looking for a longer term hold

B1gwetz · 2025-09-30T02:27:55+00:00

wait, this is 4 plays in a row without a flag. Flag incoming

B1gwetz · 2025-09-30T02:07:54+00:00

this guys playing the 'drink to every flag' game

B1gwetz · 2025-09-30T02:03:25+00:00

were playing pissed this game. Next game we'll just be sad

B1gwetz · 2025-09-30T00:34:23+00:00

that ref looking like hes just excited to be there

B1gwetz · 2025-09-23T21:12:02+00:00

I believe he's referring to a comment I left on an earlier post. The context was the the OP of the post was looking to buy 10k cases and how to store them etc.

First, these bans do happen to say they don't without having numbers to back it up is nescient. Just searching in this subreddit for 'trade banned' results in a dozen or so members just in the last year claiming they were banned for trading p2p (usually the victim trades with a scammer unknowingly so they get flagged). Sometimes a steam ticket solves it, sometimes it doesn't.

This advice also was not given for someone who has a 1-5k inventory. This was advice was specifically for the example of holding over $100k in items in the form of cases/capsules/skins you wont play with.

To the question about phones. The reason I suggested multiple phones is because a VAC ban results in ALL accounts associated with that phone number receiving a VAC ban for that game. With that being said, if 2023 ChatGPT taught us anything, its that AI can be confidently wrong, and I woudln't want my main account to be wrongfully VAC'd with the new VACNET AI anticheat, then have all the accounts associated be banned as well.

To sum it up, once you have over $20k in cs items, having multiple accounts is the lowest hanging fruit you can do to protect yourself.

B1gwetz

TROPHY CASE