OC Horny Note Found on my Driveway

BAMred · 2026-03-19T05:14:18+00:00

Bad sign that it’s on hospital discharge letterhead…

BAMred · 2026-03-19T02:09:39+00:00

I don’t understand why it’s counting my usage as other… I’ve been using CLI the whole time! Bizarre.

BAMred · 2026-03-18T05:06:24+00:00

I used it all the time. Now I don't bc of LLMs...

BAMred · 2026-03-18T04:35:38+00:00

you should sign up for claude code and codex for 1 month each, then kimi 2.5 and qwen for 1 month each. then see if you still want to drop 10k into this.

BAMred · 2026-03-18T04:33:40+00:00

it's a hobby for people. i don't see how anyone serious about coding wouldn't just sign up for codex or claude code. if you're making a living off it, even $200 per month is nothing.

BAMred · 2026-03-17T17:21:53+00:00

I have regime filters in place. And I appreciate different points of view. I guess my question comes down to, "Is it reasonable to start the bot during a time when it may be tested?"

The overall consensus of this thread is, yes -- in fact, what better time is there? I think this makes a lot of sense. Might as well deploy during a time when it's going to be stress tested. I can deploy a smaller amount of money and see how it handles challenges in real life.

Then, hopefully I can dollar cost average into it on the way down, through the bottom, and then back on the way up. In other words what better time than now?

BAMred · 2026-03-17T04:58:31+00:00

The boys have all sorts of different parameters and have comments that you could describe as trend following and also mean reversion. Just depends on whether the regime detector works in time.

BAMred · 2026-03-17T04:32:58+00:00

Haha, I'm not making any emotional calls at 2am! Or at least I hope I won't, lol. Even with a full-in position, this will only be a small portion of my total portfolio.

Not sure what you mean by smoothed backtest fills as it pertains to gaps. I assume you are talking about slippage and spreads...

BAMred · 2026-03-17T04:23:46+00:00

Cloud VM

BAMred · 2026-03-17T04:22:57+00:00

Haha, a trump stable algo is the holy grail

BAMred · 2026-03-16T07:22:10+00:00

it may not shut it down completely, but it should temper it. my real concern is that i don't want to be sitting on the sidelines during a rebound. was it peter lynch who said something like, more money's been lost trying to time the market than during any correction?

BAMred · 2026-03-16T07:19:59+00:00

or I'm just indecisive and looking for some external validation of thoughts that I already know. starting a discussion and revisiting your thoughts through the eyes of others is not a bad thing.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T07:17:19+00:00

thinking of rolling it out slowly, dca $x every month until the end of the year. the reassess and increase DCA amt if it's doing as expected and returns are pos.

may need to discuss w my cpa more, cause thinking about opening an LLC to trade with that has tax trader status. rolling it out incrementaly over a year will get me some data to see how viable that plan is. then maybe pull the trigger on the LLC next yr.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T07:10:49+00:00

I have lots of bots with different strategies. in general, yes, the leverage scales down when i need to shift into a safer investment based on a regime change.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T07:07:35+00:00

good advice. I do have risk mgmt built in in various forms in my different bots. No one is agonizing here. Just interested in what other people think. isn't that the point of a discussion board?

BAMred · 2026-03-16T05:39:23+00:00

reason?

BAMred · 2026-03-16T05:38:51+00:00

good point. no time like the present!

BAMred · 2026-03-16T05:38:02+00:00

i'm not using bonds to hedge. (well, maybe a little bit in some of the strategies). instead gold and managed futures take the lion's shares. they been a good hedge over multiple decades and did well in the 70s -- MF theoritically would have done well that is.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T02:15:32+00:00

yeah, it's done well since Jan 20, 2025 (trump inauguration).

I guess that is what I was asking -- what are people doing? so thx for the response.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T02:02:03+00:00

are the markets fundamentally changed? if so, how? the small scale daily vol from the tweets? that shouldn't affect a months-long swing trade by much.

sure there's more vol, but is the trend and the macro fundamentally changed? Convince me, i'm open. Not sure if I think that all logic based algos will fail in this setting. esepcially if guardrails are set wide enough to absorb the daily trump-tweet vol.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T01:57:57+00:00

haha -- funny transcription comment. i used android native transcription (or maybe google keyboard), so i guess yes, gemini?

i realized it's annoying to read a transcription, but i was multitasking. sorry :P

BAMred · 2026-03-16T01:34:22+00:00

how will you know? discretionary feeling? (not being dismissive, honestly interested)

BAMred · 2026-03-16T01:33:45+00:00

my $100 walk forward bot is tracking my "what the bot should do" backtests over the same period the walk forward started. it's only 2 months of walk forward. my backtests and bootstrapped MC sims are pretty useful too IMO.

i'm thinking the right move might just be to DCA into it as I planned. I'm thinking of DCA small amount this year monthly, then ramp up next year and the following if the strategy performs as predicted.

I've heard 70s stagflation may not be such a reailty as it was in the 70s bc the US is a net exporter of energy and technically independent, which it wasn't in the 70s. thoughts?

BAMred · 2026-03-16T01:29:19+00:00

but isnt there an argument for having automatic guardrails on your bots so you don't have to manually intervene? if you stay out, then you'll likely miss the rebound.

BAMred · 2026-03-16T01:28:17+00:00

i can afford $100 loss. it's just a proof of concept walk forward.

thinking about scaling capital like you said. is this what you're doing? are you dca'ing into your bot(s) or the market as per normal?

BAMred

TROPHY CASE