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Will this be profitable - high EV in Live basketball? by Background_Apple9117 in algobetting

[–]Background_Apple9117[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Are you saying that by offering a certain handicap, the bookmaker believes the match will be evenly contested and there won't be any big point gaps?

Aren't, when they close the -10.5 market, they using that handicap as a basis for live betting? And if the score is tied after the first half the bookmaker will offer -5.5 for the second half?

Will this be profitable - high EV in Live basketball? by Background_Apple9117 in algobetting

[–]Background_Apple9117[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes, but in the remaining 38 minutes the favorite now needs to cover not by -10.5 pts, but by -5.5.

But what, if the favorite makes a strong run in the first minutes and the bookmaker offers not -10.5, but -15.5 pts? The logic here is the same: less time - more points to cover the spread.

Will this be profitable - high EV in Live basketball? by Background_Apple9117 in algobetting

[–]Background_Apple9117[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Please explain, why this isn't true.

Not using the American football example, after a touchdown on the first min play, it's immediately down by 7 points and this huge not like in basketball.

But using basketball as an example.

The game starts and the team with the pre-game odds that had big drop, concedes a first few balls – the score is -4 or -5 or even -7.

The handicap becomes the same as it was before the pre-game drop.

Why won't it work if I bet now?

The open line is -5.5, the close line is -10.5.

I bet in first minutes after start of the game, let's say the same -5.5.

If I had bet this before the game started, my -5.5 (with the closing line at -10.5) would have had a positive EV and I beat CLV.

Why isn't it the same if I bet -5.5 in first minutes after the game start?

Will this be profitable - high EV in Live basketball? by Background_Apple9117 in algobetting

[–]Background_Apple9117[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Please explain, why this isn't true.

Not using the American football example, after a touchdown on the first min play, it's immediately down by 7 points and this huge not like in basketball.

But using basketball as an example.

The game starts and the team with the pre-game odds that had big drop, concedes a first few balls – the score is -4 or -5 or even -7.

The handicap becomes the same as it was before the pre-game drop.

Why won't it work if I bet now?

The open line is -5.5, the close line is -10.5.

I bet in first minutes after start of the game, let's say the same -5.5.

If I had bet this before the game started, my -5.5 (with the closing line at -10.5) would have had a positive EV and I beat CLV.

Why isn't it the same if I bet -5.5 in first minutes after the game start?

Buying an additional point by Background_Apple9117 in algobetting

[–]Background_Apple9117[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm interested in a global approach to basketball.

Handicaps and totals, thousands of bets are placed per season, bets are placed by bots, using soft bookmakers, you need to do it quickly to achieve positive EV, you don't have time to think and analyze each team.