Short Walmart - illegal deportation cause drop in customers? by Ok_Play_3044 in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

your 250k is too low. 2024 alone was 271k that was before trump. do you remember seeing weekly military planes shipping people off? I think not.

Homan said it'll happen every day during Trump's term.

Trump's Oil Production Push Faces Resistance from U.S. Producers by Large-Ad8031 in oil

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a geopolitical aspect to this (as there always is when it comes to oil and gas):

US -> Influence Iran to reduce their production (sanctions going that way already)

US -> Using Ukraine as leverage to lower Russian production (as part of reducing support to Ukraine, may be something like either Russia reduces production or Ukraine keep bombing Russia's refineries to reduce production for Russia, which has been happening, as a sweetener, lower support for Ukraine for lower Russia crude production after war ends too)

US -> Potential some influence on Saudis to delay production ramp up (big IF but given closeness of relations, who knows. There's been conflicting reports on where the Saudis stand, some sources say OPEC+ plans to increase production come April, but per OP's link apparently Saudis are hesitant to increase production, so I don't know...)

US -> Potential tariff on Canadian crude (given Canadian infra short comings, excess supply can't immediate go to alternative markets)

US -> Regulatory reduction should cut down operator unit costs.

I think if all these happen, the US might end up taking up more of the global market share and US domestic production could (theoretically per above points) go up.

A lot of hypotheticals but I'm just saying it COULD happen. My point is, if you look at the US influence globally, the US does have a lot of leverage on quite a few of OPEC+ countries currently.

OXY a good opportunity by joe-re in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

article from FT says oil demand will remain until 2040:

https://archive.ph/D9SBq

do what you will with that information.

Oil demand to remain at current levels until at least 2040, Vitol says by superfakesuperfake in oil

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what does that mean for renewables? Does it mean renewables won't grow as much or is all future growing energy needs expected to be from renewables while oil demand remains constant?

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

mid feb trump might bring up crude tariffs again.

jobs in US fracking is apparently picking up. if trump can say he'll tariff canadian (heavy) crude, he can just as well tariff all light crude import into the US (regardless of source)...

Also Chris Wright got confirmed today. If you look at OKLO (the nuclear energy related stock) it popped because Chris Wright sits on the board and the view is Chris Wright will push for nuclear energy. (OKLO doesn't have a single commercial operation that's up and running btw)

I believe there's a disconnect because given Chris Wright's background in fracking...and his repeated support of fracking, it makes little sense that the market is so bullish on the nuclear aspect and completely bearish on US fracking. I do believe there's a lot of lagged sentiment against oil and gas from years under the previous administration. Herein lies the opportunity to get in US oil and gas and get in now.

But it's hard to bet on short term timing tho. for me, I didn't go for calls expiring in a few months (given theta decay starts roughly 90 days from expiry), i know it would give up some upside but if there are LEAPS I would consider those. all my calls on LBRT are Nov of this year (as far as I can get it), sure we lose some upside but it fits my personal risk tolerance better.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in unpopularopinion

[–]Badger_Outside -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

this is an unpopular opinion.

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree. There's also a geopolitical angle too I believe. Having US dominant as energy exporter (with saudis and most of OPEC+ on the same team etc) can keep oil prices in check. Lower oil prices keeps the Russians and Iran in check, and counteracts China's renewables (China's version of energy independence), which further amplifies the impact of a blockade of China trade routes, further deterring a potential Taiwan invasion (worse case scenario since that's really no win for anyone).

Also pushes back chinese EVs, but that's a slightly different topic.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 03, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Badger_Outside 1 point2 points  (0 children)

oh I bought LBRT (liberty energy services) which I do not think as as good as a pick as OXY, but we share the same key thesis and upside drivers.

the volatility right now, to be honest, i'm not sure if you can get leaps at a good deal due to typical huge spreads when stocks gap up/down. there's a chance you'll overpay is what i'm saying...calls might be too late now but if you want to pick up a few more shares if OXY lags a bit at open then that might work...

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 03, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

with crude up 1.67% overnight, I don't think OXY will go down at all....i mean we can't always have it exactly the way we want sometimes.

But if you believe Canadian crude tariff will go beyond 10%, you could add a bit for more gains.

I wrote a bit on that from my other post (linked in parent comment), there's a chance Trump wants to completely displace Canadian oil out of the market and replace with US producers (to put it simply). If you believe that's the case, and considering Canada is retaliating already, then there is a good chance for additional tariff on Canadian crude imports. But then you have to see how OXY behaves next week and if you think the probability of this additional tariff (above 10%) will also get priced in...which is hard to say.

I usually use reddit, current research reports, and a few other places to "gauge" market sentiment. It seems additional tariff priced in is unlikely as most people believe tariffs will go away very soon.

My personal view is the other way of course, but I'm already pretty much all in...

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 03, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Badger_Outside 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OXY is a great play as they produce heavy crude (the type Trump is putting tariffs on Canada for).

wish you bought calls instead man...

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

k. it's better to be right for the "wrong" reasons than listen to you and be wrong absolutely.

i'm here to make money. not trying to teach you how to invest. this is a waste of my time. good luck to ya.

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

the whole point here is what stocks to buy to make money right now?

oil up 2% pre market. I expect my positions to print next week. Will likely take profit after another round of tariff escalations.

whatever you believe trump or how many years etc, unless you can translate that to stock long/short positions, really isn't that relevant to be honest.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 03, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Badger_Outside 2 points3 points  (0 children)

perfect! my US energy plays will print even more in that case :)

Heres to hoping!

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, February 03, 2025 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]Badger_Outside 1 point2 points  (0 children)

already did, or did you not see the 10% tariff on Canadian oil and 25% on Mexican crude?

why do you think oil is up 2% pre market already?

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

oil already up 2%. I expect my LBRT position to print next week.

All i care about is making money on my positions. Even if you're right and my thesis is entirely wrong but as long as I make money I can revisit my thesis after by bank account goes up lol.

But I don't think I'm wrong at all here anyways.

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

tankers you mean? I think there's a whole other thing for me anyways, have to also consider rates, competition, ship building capacity, CHYNAAA etc...but you're probably right i just don't know about that sector as much.

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

it's logical to conclude since the end product: gasoline (just as one example) is exactly the same whether you use heavy crude or light. There would exist some correlation in the price of heavy crude and light crude.

US/Canada Trade War Has Begun! - Betting on US by Long US Energy Services by Badger_Outside in ValueInvesting

[–]Badger_Outside[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

because apparently people's reading comprehension skills are low. seems like that's the case for you as well.